Win probability changed during the game. · 24 March 2021
It was more exciting than 81% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 21 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when ORL leads and falls when PHX does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · PHX
Ayton · Booker · Paul · Bridges · Crowder
Closing lineup · ORL
Gordon · Vucevic · Fournier · Aminu · Carter-Williams
Deandre Ayton
34′ · +10
Devin Booker
32′ · +6
Chris Paul
32′ · +3
Mikal Bridges
31′ · +9
Jae Crowder
29′ · +10
Cameron Payne
18′ · -10
Cameron Johnson
19′ · -3
Dario Saric
14′ · -11
Torrey Craig
19′ · -11
Langston Galloway
11′ · -8
Aaron Gordon
34′ · -2
Nikola Vucevic
34′ · -5
Evan Fournier
33′ · -14
Al-Farouq Aminu
28′ · 0
Michael Carter-Williams
23′ · -6
James Ennis III
27′ · +6
Chuma Okeke
20′ · +1
Dwayne Bacon
24′ · +21
Khem Birch
14′ · +6
Chasson Randle
3′ · -2
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. PHX and ORL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Phoenix Suns
Paul, Booker, Bridges, Ayton, and Crowder played 21.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Payne, Craig, Johnson, Saric, and Galloway played 7.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Booker, Payne, Craig, Bridges, and Ayton played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Orlando Magic
Aminu, Vucevic, Fournier, Carter-Williams, and Gordon played 9.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Bacon, Aminu, Fournier, Birch, and Gordon played 8.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Bacon, Aminu, Vucevic, Carter-Williams, and Ennis played 5.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Phoenix Suns
Paul, Craig, Johnson, Saric, and Galloway played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Paul, Booker, Craig, Johnson, and Saric played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Booker, Payne, Ayton, Johnson, and Crowder played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Paul, Payne, Bridges, Ayton, and Crowder played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Paul, Bridges, Ayton, Johnson, and Crowder played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Booker, Payne, Bridges, Ayton, and Crowder played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Paul, Craig, Ayton, Johnson, and Galloway played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Orlando Magic
Okeke, Vucevic, Fournier, Ennis, and Gordon played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Aminu, Vucevic, Fournier, Ennis, and Gordon played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Okeke, Vucevic, Fournier, Carter-Williams, and Ennis played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Okeke, Vucevic, Fournier, Carter-Williams, and Gordon played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Randle, Bacon, Okeke, Ennis, and Birch played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Bacon, Okeke, Ennis, Birch, and Gordon played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Bacon, Okeke, Vucevic, Ennis, and Gordon played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Bacon, Okeke, Vucevic, Carter-Williams, and Ennis played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

