SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 24 March 2021

PHX111–112ORL
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 81% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 21 times

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ ORL winsPHX wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when ORL leads and falls when PHX does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · PHX

Deandre Ayton
Devin Booker
Chris Paul
Mikal Bridges
Jae Crowder

Ayton · Booker · Paul · Bridges · Crowder

Closing lineup · ORL

Aaron Gordon
Nikola Vucevic
Evan Fournier
Al-Farouq Aminu
Michael Carter-Williams

Gordon · Vucevic · Fournier · Aminu · Carter-Williams

Q1Q2Q3Q4
PHX
Deandre Ayton

Deandre Ayton

34′ · +10

Devin Booker

Devin Booker

32′ · +6

Chris Paul

Chris Paul

32′ · +3

Mikal Bridges

Mikal Bridges

31′ · +9

Jae Crowder

Jae Crowder

29′ · +10

Cameron Payne

Cameron Payne

18′ · -10

Cameron Johnson

Cameron Johnson

19′ · -3

Dario Saric

Dario Saric

14′ · -11

Torrey Craig

Torrey Craig

19′ · -11

Langston Galloway

Langston Galloway

11′ · -8

ORL
Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon

34′ · -2

Nikola Vucevic

Nikola Vucevic

34′ · -5

Evan Fournier

Evan Fournier

33′ · -14

Al-Farouq Aminu

Al-Farouq Aminu

28′ · 0

Michael Carter-Williams

Michael Carter-Williams

23′ · -6

James Ennis III

James Ennis III

27′ · +6

Chuma Okeke

Chuma Okeke

20′ · +1

Dwayne Bacon

Dwayne Bacon

24′ · +21

Khem Birch

Khem Birch

14′ · +6

Chasson Randle

Chasson Randle

3′ · -2

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. PHX and ORL.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Phoenix Suns

  • Paul, Booker, Bridges, Ayton, and Crowder played 21.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Payne, Craig, Johnson, Saric, and Galloway played 7.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Booker, Payne, Craig, Bridges, and Ayton played 3.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

Orlando Magic

  • Aminu, Vucevic, Fournier, Carter-Williams, and Gordon played 9.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.

  • Bacon, Aminu, Fournier, Birch, and Gordon played 8.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Bacon, Aminu, Vucevic, Carter-Williams, and Ennis played 5.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Phoenix Suns

  • Paul, Craig, Johnson, Saric, and Galloway played 3.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Paul, Booker, Craig, Johnson, and Saric played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Booker, Payne, Ayton, Johnson, and Crowder played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Paul, Payne, Bridges, Ayton, and Crowder played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Paul, Bridges, Ayton, Johnson, and Crowder played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Booker, Payne, Bridges, Ayton, and Crowder played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Paul, Craig, Ayton, Johnson, and Galloway played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

Orlando Magic

  • Okeke, Vucevic, Fournier, Ennis, and Gordon played 4.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Aminu, Vucevic, Fournier, Ennis, and Gordon played 4.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Okeke, Vucevic, Fournier, Carter-Williams, and Ennis played 3.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Okeke, Vucevic, Fournier, Carter-Williams, and Gordon played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Randle, Bacon, Okeke, Ennis, and Birch played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Bacon, Okeke, Ennis, Birch, and Gordon played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Bacon, Okeke, Vucevic, Ennis, and Gordon played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Bacon, Okeke, Vucevic, Carter-Williams, and Ennis played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
3891
20.6% of capacity
Kia Center · Orlando
Scoring
223
combined points
1.2 below the season average (224.2)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

18 calls reviewed0 no admitted errors