Win probability changed during the game. · 25 March 2021
It was more exciting than 89% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 32 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIA leads and falls when POR does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · POR
Lillard · McCollum · Covington · Jones · Anthony
Closing lineup · MIA
Nunn · Ariza · Adebayo · Herro · Strus
Damian Lillard
39′ · +10
CJ McCollum
38′ · +5
Robert Covington
34′ · -14
Enes Freedom
33′ · +21
Derrick Jones Jr.
23′ · +5
Carmelo Anthony
33′ · +6
Nassir Little
20′ · -11
Anfernee Simons
20′ · -7
Kendrick Nunn
34′ · +4
Trevor Ariza
33′ · -23
Bam Adebayo
32′ · +11
Gabe Vincent
27′ · -6
Duncan Robinson
26′ · -6
Tyler Herro
35′ · -4
Precious Achiuwa
14′ · -9
Max Strus
22′ · +7
Andre Iguodala
17′ · +11
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. POR and MIA.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Portland Trail Blazers
Jones, Freedom, Lillard, McCollum, and Covington played 15.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Simons, Little, McCollum, Covington, and Anthony played 6.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 11 points.
Freedom, Lillard, McCollum, Covington, and Anthony played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Miami Heat
Adebayo, Robinson, Nunn, Vincent, and Ariza played 12.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Adebayo, Vincent, Strus, Herro, and Iguodala played 5.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Adebayo, Robinson, Nunn, Herro, and Ariza played 5.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Portland Trail Blazers
Simons, Little, Lillard, Covington, and Anthony played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Simons, Little, Freedom, Lillard, and Anthony played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Jones, Freedom, Lillard, McCollum, and Anthony played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Simons, Little, Freedom, McCollum, and Anthony played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Jones, Lillard, McCollum, Covington, and Anthony played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Little, Freedom, Lillard, McCollum, and Anthony played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Jones, Simons, Freedom, Lillard, and Anthony played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Jones, Simons, Lillard, Covington, and Anthony played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Miami Heat
Adebayo, Nunn, Strus, Herro, and Iguodala played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Nunn, Strus, Herro, Achiuwa, and Iguodala played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Robinson, Vincent, Herro, Achiuwa, and Ariza played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Robinson, Nunn, Herro, Achiuwa, and Ariza played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Adebayo, Nunn, Strus, Herro, and Ariza played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Vincent, Strus, Herro, Achiuwa, and Ariza played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Vincent, Strus, Herro, Iguodala, and Ariza played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Nunn, Strus, Herro, Achiuwa, and Ariza played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

