Win probability changed during the game. · 27 March 2021
It was more exciting than 93% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when SAC leads and falls when CLE does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · CLE
Sexton · Nance · Garland · Thomas · Wade
Closing lineup · SAC
Fox · Barnes · Holmes · Haliburton · Wright
Collin Sexton
40′ · -4
Larry Nance Jr.
34′ · -8
Isaac Okoro
33′ · -10
Darius Garland
33′ · -6
Brodric Thomas
31′ · +8
Dean Wade
31′ · -2
Damyean Dotson
23′ · +8
Lamar Stevens
15′ · +4
De'Aaron Fox
38′ · +5
Harrison Barnes
36′ · +13
Richaun Holmes
34′ · -3
Tyrese Haliburton
33′ · -1
Buddy Hield
32′ · +9
Chimezie Metu
14′ · +8
Delon Wright
23′ · -2
Terence Davis
18′ · -8
Maurice Harkless
12′ · -11
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. CLE and SAC.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Dotson, Sexton, Wade, Stevens, and Thomas played 14.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Nance, Sexton, Garland, Okoro, and Thomas played 13.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Nance, Sexton, Garland, Wade, and Okoro played 8.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Sacramento Kings
Holmes, Hield, Fox, Haliburton, and Barnes played 19.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Wright, Holmes, Fox, Davis, and Harkless played 5.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Wright, Metu, Davis, Haliburton, and Harkless played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Cleveland Cavaliers
Nance, Dotson, Garland, Wade, and Okoro played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Nance, Dotson, Sexton, Garland, and Okoro played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Nance, Garland, Wade, Okoro, and Thomas played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Sacramento Kings
Wright, Hield, Fox, Metu, and Barnes played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Hield, Fox, Metu, Haliburton, and Barnes played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Wright, Holmes, Hield, Fox, and Barnes played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Wright, Holmes, Davis, Haliburton, and Harkless played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Wright, Holmes, Fox, Davis, and Barnes played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Wright, Metu, Davis, Haliburton, and Barnes played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Holmes, Hield, Davis, Haliburton, and Barnes played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

