Win probability changed during the game. · 5 April 2021
It was more exciting than 83% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when TOR leads and falls when WAS does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · WAS
Westbrook · Avdija · Neto · Bertans · Gill
Closing lineup · TOR
Anunoby · Siakam · Trent · Bembry · Flynn
Russell Westbrook
40′ · -4
Deni Avdija
40′ · +8
Alex Len
29′ · +11
Raul Neto
26′ · +7
Davis Bertans
24′ · +12
Ish Smith
21′ · -10
Garrison Mathews
29′ · -8
Robin Lopez
9′ · -7
Chandler Hutchison
13′ · -15
Anthony Gill
10′ · -4
OG Anunoby
38′ · +4
Pascal Siakam
36′ · -20
Gary Trent Jr.
31′ · -17
DeAndre' Bembry
30′ · +1
Chris Boucher
20′ · -14
Malachi Flynn
34′ · +11
Aron Baynes
21′ · +20
Stanley Johnson
12′ · +7
Yuta Watanabe
18′ · +18
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. WAS and TOR.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Washington Wizards
Avdija, Westbrook, Bertans, Len, and Neto played 15.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Mathews, Avdija, Westbrook, Smith, and Len played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Hutchison, Mathews, Westbrook, Lopez, and Smith played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Toronto Raptors
Bembry, Siakam, Anunoby, Boucher, and Trent played 14.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Bembry, Anunoby, Watanabe, Flynn, and Baynes played 5.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 15 points.
Bembry, Siakam, Anunoby, Trent, and Flynn played 5.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Washington Wizards
Mathews, Avdija, Westbrook, Bertans, and Len played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Hutchison, Mathews, Gill, Westbrook, and Smith played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Mathews, Avdija, Westbrook, Lopez, and Neto played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Avdija, Gill, Westbrook, Bertans, and Neto played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Hutchison, Mathews, Avdija, Gill, and Smith played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Mathews, Avdija, Bertans, Len, and Neto played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Mathews, Avdija, Lopez, Smith, and Neto played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Hutchison, Mathews, Avdija, Smith, and Len played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Mathews, Avdija, Gill, Westbrook, and Smith played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Mathews, Avdija, Smith, Len, and Neto played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Toronto Raptors
Johnson, Anunoby, Watanabe, Flynn, and Baynes played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Johnson, Siakam, Trent, Flynn, and Baynes played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Johnson, Siakam, Trent, Watanabe, and Flynn played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Bembry, Siakam, Anunoby, Flynn, and Baynes played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Anunoby, Boucher, Watanabe, Flynn, and Baynes played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Johnson, Siakam, Anunoby, Trent, and Flynn played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Bembry, Siakam, Watanabe, Flynn, and Baynes played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Bembry, Siakam, Boucher, Trent, and Flynn played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Siakam, Anunoby, Boucher, Trent, and Flynn played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

