Win probability changed during the game. · 19 April 2021
It was more exciting than 98% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 47 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIL leads and falls when PHX does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · PHX
Booker · Bridges · Ayton · Paul · Crowder
Closing lineup · MIL
Holiday · Middleton · Lopez · DiVincenzo · Tucker
Devin Booker
44′ · 0
Mikal Bridges
40′ · +6
Deandre Ayton
40′ · +1
Chris Paul
38′ · +9
Dario Saric
18′ · +2
Jae Crowder
30′ · 0
Cameron Johnson
19′ · -5
Cameron Payne
15′ · -8
Jevon Carter
7′ · +3
Torrey Craig
14′ · -3
Jrue Holiday
40′ · +1
Khris Middleton
38′ · -6
Giannis Antetokounmpo
35′ · -3
Brook Lopez
33′ · 0
Donte DiVincenzo
31′ · -6
Bryn Forbes
14′ · +3
Pat Connaughton
23′ · +3
P.J. Tucker
21′ · +3
Bobby Portis
14′ · -1
Thanasis Antetokounmpo
1′ · 0
Jeff Teague
12′ · +1
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. PHX and MIL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Phoenix Suns
Paul, Booker, Bridges, Ayton, and Crowder played 14.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Paul, Booker, Bridges, Ayton, and Saric played 8.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Booker, Payne, Ayton, Johnson, and Crowder played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Milwaukee Bucks
DiVincenzo, Lopez, Holiday, Middleton, and Antetokounmpo played 16.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Portis, Connaughton, Tucker, Teague, and Middleton played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Connaughton, DiVincenzo, Tucker, Holiday, and Middleton played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See every lineup of the game
Phoenix Suns
Booker, Payne, Craig, Bridges, and Ayton played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Paul, Booker, Bridges, Ayton, and Johnson played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Booker, Payne, Craig, Johnson, and Saric played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Paul, Craig, Carter, Johnson, and Crowder played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Booker, Payne, Bridges, Ayton, and Crowder played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Paul, Booker, Bridges, Crowder, and Saric played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Paul, Craig, Carter, Johnson, and Saric played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Paul, Craig, Carter, Ayton, and Johnson played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Paul, Craig, Bridges, Ayton, and Crowder played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Booker, Payne, Bridges, Johnson, and Saric played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Booker, Payne, Bridges, Crowder, and Saric played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Milwaukee Bucks
Connaughton, Forbes, Tucker, Lopez, and Holiday played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Forbes, Lopez, Holiday, Middleton, and Antetokounmpo played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Portis, Connaughton, Forbes, Tucker, and Holiday played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Forbes, DiVincenzo, Lopez, Holiday, and Antetokounmpo played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
DiVincenzo, Lopez, Teague, Middleton, and Antetokounmpo played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Portis, Connaughton, DiVincenzo, Tucker, and Middleton played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Portis, Connaughton, Holiday, Teague, and Antetokounmpo played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Portis, Connaughton, Teague, Middleton, and Antetokounmpo played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Connaughton, Tucker, Lopez, Holiday, and Antetokounmpo played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Portis, DiVincenzo, Teague, Middleton, and Antetokounmpo played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
DiVincenzo, Tucker, Holiday, Middleton, and Antetokounmpo played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Forbes, Tucker, Lopez, Holiday, and Antetokounmpo played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

