SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 19 April 2021

PHX128–127MIL
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 98% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 47 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ MIL winsPHX wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIL leads and falls when PHX does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · PHX

Devin Booker
Mikal Bridges
Deandre Ayton
Chris Paul
Jae Crowder

Booker · Bridges · Ayton · Paul · Crowder

Closing lineup · MIL

Jrue Holiday
Khris Middleton
Brook Lopez
Donte DiVincenzo
P.J. Tucker

Holiday · Middleton · Lopez · DiVincenzo · Tucker

Q1Q2Q3Q4OT1
PHX
Devin Booker

Devin Booker

44′ · 0

Mikal Bridges

Mikal Bridges

40′ · +6

Deandre Ayton

Deandre Ayton

40′ · +1

Chris Paul

Chris Paul

38′ · +9

Dario Saric

Dario Saric

18′ · +2

Jae Crowder

Jae Crowder

30′ · 0

Cameron Johnson

Cameron Johnson

19′ · -5

Cameron Payne

Cameron Payne

15′ · -8

Jevon Carter

Jevon Carter

7′ · +3

Torrey Craig

Torrey Craig

14′ · -3

MIL
Jrue Holiday

Jrue Holiday

40′ · +1

Khris Middleton

Khris Middleton

38′ · -6

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis Antetokounmpo

35′ · -3

Brook Lopez

Brook Lopez

33′ · 0

Donte DiVincenzo

Donte DiVincenzo

31′ · -6

Bryn Forbes

Bryn Forbes

14′ · +3

Pat Connaughton

Pat Connaughton

23′ · +3

P.J. Tucker

P.J. Tucker

21′ · +3

Bobby Portis

Bobby Portis

14′ · -1

Thanasis Antetokounmpo

Thanasis Antetokounmpo

1′ · 0

Jeff Teague

Jeff Teague

12′ · +1

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. PHX and MIL.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Phoenix Suns

  • Paul, Booker, Bridges, Ayton, and Crowder played 14.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Paul, Booker, Bridges, Ayton, and Saric played 8.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Booker, Payne, Ayton, Johnson, and Crowder played 3.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

Milwaukee Bucks

  • DiVincenzo, Lopez, Holiday, Middleton, and Antetokounmpo played 16.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Portis, Connaughton, Tucker, Teague, and Middleton played 4.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Connaughton, DiVincenzo, Tucker, Holiday, and Middleton played 4.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

▸See every lineup of the game

Phoenix Suns

  • Booker, Payne, Craig, Bridges, and Ayton played 3.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Paul, Booker, Bridges, Ayton, and Johnson played 3.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Booker, Payne, Craig, Johnson, and Saric played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Paul, Craig, Carter, Johnson, and Crowder played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Booker, Payne, Bridges, Ayton, and Crowder played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Paul, Booker, Bridges, Crowder, and Saric played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Paul, Craig, Carter, Johnson, and Saric played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Paul, Craig, Carter, Ayton, and Johnson played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Paul, Craig, Bridges, Ayton, and Crowder played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Booker, Payne, Bridges, Johnson, and Saric played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Booker, Payne, Bridges, Crowder, and Saric played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

Milwaukee Bucks

  • Connaughton, Forbes, Tucker, Lopez, and Holiday played 3.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Forbes, Lopez, Holiday, Middleton, and Antetokounmpo played 3.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Portis, Connaughton, Forbes, Tucker, and Holiday played 3.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Forbes, DiVincenzo, Lopez, Holiday, and Antetokounmpo played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • DiVincenzo, Lopez, Teague, Middleton, and Antetokounmpo played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Portis, Connaughton, DiVincenzo, Tucker, and Middleton played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Portis, Connaughton, Holiday, Teague, and Antetokounmpo played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Portis, Connaughton, Teague, Middleton, and Antetokounmpo played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Connaughton, Tucker, Lopez, Holiday, and Antetokounmpo played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Portis, DiVincenzo, Teague, Middleton, and Antetokounmpo played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • DiVincenzo, Tucker, Holiday, Middleton, and Antetokounmpo played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Forbes, Tucker, Lopez, Holiday, and Antetokounmpo played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
3280
18.9% of capacity
Fiserv Forum · Milwaukee
Scoring
255
combined points
30.8 above the season average (224.2)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

27 calls reviewed4 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Defense 3 Second · 00:00.1
Pat Connaughton → Suns
Connaughton (MIL) is in the paint for longer than three seconds without imminently actively guarding an opponent.
Stoppage: TimeOut · 00:02.5
Mike Budenholzer
Milwaukee signals for a timeout while neither team is in possession of the ball and they are granted the timeout.
Foul: Offensive · 00:28
Deandre Ayton → Donte DiVincenzo
Ayton (PHX) extends his arm against DiVincenzo's (MIL) body off ball and contact dislodges him from his position.
Foul: Personal · 01:05.1
Donte DiVincenzo → Deandre Ayton
DiVincenzo (MIL) makes contact with Ayton's (PHX) wrist in the lane and contact causes him to lose control of the ball.