Miami Heat – Milwaukee Bucks · NBA

Win probability changed during the game. · 22 May 2021

MIA107–109MIL

Is it worth watching?

Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 99% of NBA games since 2017

· It was still open in the final minutes
· The win probability swung between the two teams 53 times
· It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ MIL winsMIA wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIL leads and falls when MIA does.

This is how the game was decided.

Khris Middleton decided it, the Milwaukee Bucks player with the most points (27, with 6 rebounds and 6 assists; 0 with him on the floor); the winner's best plus-minus was Jrue Holiday's (+10). The criterion: the winner's points in the box score; plus-minus says who was on the floor when the game opened up.

The game-winner in Milwaukee Bucks 109-107 Miami Heat (May 22, 2021) was hit by Khris Middleton: a jump shot with 0.5 s left in overtime, putting the Milwaukee Bucks up 109-107. They never trailed again.

The biggest run of Milwaukee Bucks 109-107 Miami Heat (May 22, 2021) was a 8-0 run by the Milwaukee Bucks in the second quarter (from 4:43 to 2:55), from 35-40 to 43-40. The Miami Heat' best was a 6-0 run in the first quarter (from 11:39 to 10:59), from 0-0 to 6-0.

With 25 points, this is Goran Dragic's highest-scoring game of the 2020‑21 playoffs.

▸See where these figures come from

Play: Khris Middleton makes 19-foot pullup jump shot.

I count as the game-winner the basket that puts the winning team ahead for good. Source: the official NBA play-by-play (since 2002-03) and each team's official box scores.

A run here is consecutive points by one team without the opponent scoring. Source: the official NBA play-by-play (since 2002-03) and each team's official box scores.

Source: the game's official box score and play-by-play.

It is compared by points with all his official NBA box scores in that scope; it is the same criterion the Analyst uses.

Khris Middleton decided this game: his points put his team ahead with 0.5 seconds left in overtime 1, and the opponent never led again.

It is one of the 3 games he has decided this way in the NBA since the 2002-03 season.

His profile shows the games Middleton decided

▸See where these figures come from

A game is decided by the last basket that puts a team ahead in the final ten seconds of the fourth quarter or of an overtime, if that team wins.

22 May 2021 · The source is the ESPN play-by-play, play espn:401327715:756; the date is the one on the NBA box score.

Who stood out on defense during the season

These figures cover the whole 2020-21 regular season, not this game.

Miami Heat

Jimmy Butler III recovered 1.2 loose balls per game over his 52 games.
He ranks 3 of 364 in the league.
Bam Adebayo contested 9.9 shots per game over his 64 games.
He ranks 19 of 364 in the league.
Trevor Ariza deflected 2.5 passes per game over his 30 games.
He ranks 26 of 364 in the league.

Milwaukee Bucks

Brook Lopez contested 17.0 shots per game over his 70 games.
He ranks 1 of 364 in the league.
Jrue Holiday recovered 1.3 loose balls per game over his 59 games.
He ranks 1 of 364 in the league.
Giannis Antetokounmpo recovered 1.1 loose balls per game over his 61 games.
He ranks 8 of 364 in the league.

Hustle figures come from the hustle stats the NBA publishes (NBA.com) and rim defense comes from its tracking; both cover the regular season. For each player in this game we show the figure that ranks him highest in the league, and for each team, the three best ranked. Ranks count players with at least 30 games and, at the rim, at least 4 defended shots per game.

The Milwaukee Bucks have won 64 of their 154 games against the Miami Heat.

64-90record of the Milwaukee Bucks · NBA 1988-89 – 2025-26, regular season and playoffs

1-2in 2025-26

See the full head-to-head in the Analyst

See where it comes from

Official NBA box scores, regular season and playoffs, 1988-89 – 2025-26. It counts every game between the two teams that the house holds, this one included.

SportiveWorld knows much more about this game

Game context

Attendance

9107

52.5% of capacity

Fiserv Forum · Milwaukee

Series

Game 1

First round

MIL 4-0

Scoring

216

combined points

4.6 below the season average (220.6)

⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

19 calls reviewed6 errors admitted by the NBA

Violation: Lane · 00:09.0

Goran Dragic → Giannis Antetokounmpo

Dragic (MIA) is standing inside the three-point arc before the release of Antetokounmpo's (MIL) free throw attempt.

Turnover: Stepped out of Bounds · 00:22.8

Goran Dragic → Bucks

Dragic (MIA) steps on the sideline out of bounds after he receives the pass.

Foul: Defense 3 Second · 00:29.2

Brook Lopez → Heat

Lopez (MIL) is in the lane for longer than three seconds without actively guarding an opponent.

Turnover: Traveling · 00:36.7

Giannis Antetokounmpo → Heat

Antetokounmpo (MIL) takes more than two steps after gathering the rebound.