Win probability changed during the game. · 20 October 2021
It was more exciting than 90% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 26 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when CHA leads and falls when IND does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · IND
Brogdon · Sabonis · Duarte · Holiday · Lamb
Closing lineup · CHA
Oubre · Hayward · Bridges · Martin · Washington
Malcolm Brogdon
40′ · 0
Domantas Sabonis
39′ · -1
Chris Duarte
33′ · +7
Justin Holiday
26′ · +1
Myles Turner
26′ · -8
Torrey Craig
28′ · -3
Jeremy Lamb
24′ · +5
T.J. McConnell
24′ · -8
Kelly Oubre Jr.
35′ · +1
Gordon Hayward
35′ · +12
Miles Bridges
33′ · +15
Mason Plumlee
32′ · +4
LaMelo Ball
29′ · 0
Cody Martin
24′ · -6
Ish Smith
21′ · -1
P.J. Washington
19′ · -10
Jalen McDaniels
11′ · -10
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. IND and CHA.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Indiana Pacers
Turner, Sabonis, Brogdon, Duarte, and Holiday played 11.5 minutes together.
Sabonis, Brogdon, Craig, Duarte, and Lamb played 7.2 minutes together.
Turner, Brogdon, Craig, Duarte, and McConnell played 3.1 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Indiana Pacers lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
Charlotte Hornets
Oubre, Bridges, Ball, Hayward, and Plumlee played 19.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Martin, Washington, McDaniels, Hayward, and Smith played 5.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Oubre, Bridges, Martin, Ball, and Plumlee played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Indiana Pacers
Turner, Brogdon, Craig, Lamb, and McConnell played 2.6 minutes together.
Turner, Sabonis, Brogdon, Craig, and Lamb played 2.5 minutes together.
Sabonis, Brogdon, Craig, Lamb, and McConnell played 2.4 minutes together.
Sabonis, Craig, Duarte, Lamb, and McConnell played 2.3 minutes together.
Sabonis, Craig, Lamb, Holiday, and McConnell played 2.1 minutes together.
Turner, Brogdon, Duarte, Holiday, and McConnell played 1.8 minutes together.
Turner, Sabonis, Brogdon, Holiday, and McConnell played 1.7 minutes together.
Sabonis, Duarte, Lamb, Holiday, and McConnell played 1.7 minutes together.
Sabonis, Brogdon, Craig, Holiday, and McConnell played 1.7 minutes together.
Sabonis, Craig, Duarte, Holiday, and McConnell played 1.6 minutes together.
Sabonis, Brogdon, Duarte, Lamb, and Holiday played 1.4 minutes together.
Turner, Sabonis, Brogdon, Craig, and McConnell played 1.4 minutes together.
Sabonis, Brogdon, Lamb, Holiday, and McConnell played 1.1 minutes together.
Turner, Brogdon, Duarte, Lamb, and Holiday played 1.0 minutes together.
Charlotte Hornets
Oubre, Martin, Washington, Ball, and Plumlee played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Oubre, Martin, Washington, McDaniels, and Smith played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Martin, Ball, Hayward, Smith, and Plumlee played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Oubre, Bridges, Martin, Smith, and Plumlee played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Bridges, Washington, McDaniels, Hayward, and Smith played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Bridges, Martin, Washington, Hayward, and Smith played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Oubre, Bridges, Hayward, Smith, and Plumlee played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Oubre, Bridges, Martin, Washington, and Smith played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Oubre, Bridges, Washington, Hayward, and Smith played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Martin, Washington, Hayward, Smith, and Plumlee played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

