SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 20 October 2021

IND122–123CHA
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 90% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 26 times

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ CHA winsIND wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when CHA leads and falls when IND does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · IND

Malcolm Brogdon
Domantas Sabonis
Chris Duarte
Justin Holiday
Jeremy Lamb

Brogdon · Sabonis · Duarte · Holiday · Lamb

Closing lineup · CHA

Kelly Oubre Jr.
Gordon Hayward
Miles Bridges
Cody Martin
P.J. Washington

Oubre · Hayward · Bridges · Martin · Washington

Q1Q2Q3Q4
IND
Malcolm Brogdon

Malcolm Brogdon

40′ · 0

Domantas Sabonis

Domantas Sabonis

39′ · -1

Chris Duarte

Chris Duarte

33′ · +7

Justin Holiday

Justin Holiday

26′ · +1

Myles Turner

Myles Turner

26′ · -8

Torrey Craig

Torrey Craig

28′ · -3

Jeremy Lamb

Jeremy Lamb

24′ · +5

T.J. McConnell

T.J. McConnell

24′ · -8

CHA
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Kelly Oubre Jr.

35′ · +1

Gordon Hayward

Gordon Hayward

35′ · +12

Miles Bridges

Miles Bridges

33′ · +15

Mason Plumlee

Mason Plumlee

32′ · +4

LaMelo Ball

LaMelo Ball

29′ · 0

Cody Martin

Cody Martin

24′ · -6

Ish Smith

Ish Smith

21′ · -1

P.J. Washington

P.J. Washington

19′ · -10

Jalen McDaniels

Jalen McDaniels

11′ · -10

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. IND and CHA.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Indiana Pacers

  • Turner, Sabonis, Brogdon, Duarte, and Holiday played 11.5 minutes together.

  • Sabonis, Brogdon, Craig, Duarte, and Lamb played 7.2 minutes together.

  • Turner, Brogdon, Craig, Duarte, and McConnell played 3.1 minutes together.

The plus-minus of each Indiana Pacers lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.

Charlotte Hornets

  • Oubre, Bridges, Ball, Hayward, and Plumlee played 19.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Martin, Washington, McDaniels, Hayward, and Smith played 5.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Oubre, Bridges, Martin, Ball, and Plumlee played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Indiana Pacers

  • Turner, Brogdon, Craig, Lamb, and McConnell played 2.6 minutes together.

  • Turner, Sabonis, Brogdon, Craig, and Lamb played 2.5 minutes together.

  • Sabonis, Brogdon, Craig, Lamb, and McConnell played 2.4 minutes together.

  • Sabonis, Craig, Duarte, Lamb, and McConnell played 2.3 minutes together.

  • Sabonis, Craig, Lamb, Holiday, and McConnell played 2.1 minutes together.

  • Turner, Brogdon, Duarte, Holiday, and McConnell played 1.8 minutes together.

  • Turner, Sabonis, Brogdon, Holiday, and McConnell played 1.7 minutes together.

  • Sabonis, Duarte, Lamb, Holiday, and McConnell played 1.7 minutes together.

  • Sabonis, Brogdon, Craig, Holiday, and McConnell played 1.7 minutes together.

  • Sabonis, Craig, Duarte, Holiday, and McConnell played 1.6 minutes together.

  • Sabonis, Brogdon, Duarte, Lamb, and Holiday played 1.4 minutes together.

  • Turner, Sabonis, Brogdon, Craig, and McConnell played 1.4 minutes together.

  • Sabonis, Brogdon, Lamb, Holiday, and McConnell played 1.1 minutes together.

  • Turner, Brogdon, Duarte, Lamb, and Holiday played 1.0 minutes together.

Charlotte Hornets

  • Oubre, Martin, Washington, Ball, and Plumlee played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Oubre, Martin, Washington, McDaniels, and Smith played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Martin, Ball, Hayward, Smith, and Plumlee played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Oubre, Bridges, Martin, Smith, and Plumlee played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Bridges, Washington, McDaniels, Hayward, and Smith played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Bridges, Martin, Washington, Hayward, and Smith played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Oubre, Bridges, Hayward, Smith, and Plumlee played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Oubre, Bridges, Martin, Washington, and Smith played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Oubre, Bridges, Washington, Hayward, and Smith played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Martin, Washington, Hayward, Smith, and Plumlee played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
15.521
81.4% of capacity
Spectrum Center · Charlotte
Scoring
245
combined points
23.8 above the season average (221.2)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

36 calls reviewed3 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Personal · 00:12.3
Miles Bridges → Torrey Craig
Bridges (CHA) brushes Craig's (IND) left forearm and marginal contact occurs following the rebounding sequence.
Foul: Loose Ball · 00:37.0
LaMelo Ball → Torrey Craig
Ball (CHA) grabs and pulls Craig's (IND) jersey, affecting Craig's ability to retrieve the rebound and subsequently causing the contact between Ball and Sabonis (IND) to occur.
Stoppage: Out-of-Bounds · 01:21.9
Torrey Craig → Hornets
Craig's (IND) foot remains in bounds as he makes contact with the ball. After batting the ball away, he steps out of bounds and re-establishes himself in bounds before making contact with the ball again.