Win probability changed during the game. · 6 November 2021
It was more exciting than 56% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DAL leads and falls when BOS does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · BOS
Schroder · Tatum · Smart · Williams · Richardson
Closing lineup · DAL
Hardaway · Doncic · Porzingis · Brunson · Bullock
Dennis Schroder
39′ · 0
Jayson Tatum
38′ · +5
Marcus Smart
36′ · -2
Robert Williams III
33′ · +2
Al Horford
26′ · -4
Aaron Nesmith
21′ · -12
Josh Richardson
31′ · -8
Grant Williams
5′ · +2
Payton Pritchard
11′ · +2
Tim Hardaway Jr.
35′ · 0
Luka Doncic
35′ · +10
Dorian Finney-Smith
30′ · +5
Kristaps Porzingis
28′ · -4
Dwight Powell
23′ · +1
Jalen Brunson
35′ · +1
Reggie Bullock Jr.
26′ · +2
Willie Cauley-Stein
9′ · +7
Frank Ntilikina
13′ · -7
Sterling Brown
7′ · 0
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. BOS and DAL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Boston Celtics
Tatum, Williams, Horford, Schroder, and Smart played 11.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Richardson, Tatum, Williams, Schroder, and Smart played 8.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Richardson, Nesmith, Horford, Schroder, and Smart played 5.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Dallas Mavericks
Finney-Smith, Doncic, Hardaway, Powell, and Porzingis played 10.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Cauley-Stein, Finney-Smith, Brunson, Doncic, and Bullock played 5.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Brunson, Doncic, Bullock, Hardaway, and Porzingis played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Boston Celtics
Tatum, Williams, Nesmith, Schroder, and Smart played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Richardson, Williams, Williams, Nesmith, and Schroder played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Richardson, Tatum, Williams, Nesmith, and Smart played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Richardson, Tatum, Pritchard, Horford, and Schroder played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Richardson, Tatum, Pritchard, Horford, and Smart played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Richardson, Tatum, Nesmith, Horford, and Schroder played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Richardson, Tatum, Williams, Pritchard, and Smart played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Richardson, Tatum, Williams, Pritchard, and Schroder played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Richardson, Williams, Nesmith, Pritchard, and Horford played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Dallas Mavericks
Ntilikina, Brown, Brunson, Hardaway, and Porzingis played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Ntilikina, Brunson, Bullock, Hardaway, and Porzingis played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Finney-Smith, Brunson, Doncic, Bullock, and Powell played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Finney-Smith, Brunson, Doncic, Hardaway, and Powell played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Cauley-Stein, Ntilikina, Brown, Brunson, and Bullock played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Finney-Smith, Doncic, Bullock, Hardaway, and Powell played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Finney-Smith, Brunson, Doncic, Hardaway, and Porzingis played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Finney-Smith, Ntilikina, Brunson, Hardaway, and Porzingis played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Brunson, Doncic, Bullock, Hardaway, and Powell played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

