Win probability changed during the game. · 3 December 2021
It was more exciting than 84% of NBA games since 2017
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when HOU leads and falls when ORL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · ORL
Anthony · Wagner · Carter · Harris · Ross
Closing lineup · HOU
Wood · Mathews · Gordon · Tate · House
Cole Anthony
36′ · +3
Franz Wagner
33′ · -1
Wendell Carter Jr.
33′ · +8
Mo Bamba
31′ · +11
Gary Harris
31′ · +18
Chuma Okeke
19′ · -13
Terrence Ross
22′ · -13
Moritz Wagner
13′ · -10
R.J. Hampton
15′ · -7
Mychal Mulder
6′ · -6
Christian Wood
34′ · -4
Garrison Mathews
32′ · -6
Eric Gordon
32′ · -7
Jae'Sean Tate
32′ · -1
Kevin Porter Jr.
18′ · -1
Danuel House Jr.
20′ · +4
Armoni Brooks
19′ · +1
KJ Martin
14′ · +9
Alperen Sengun
19′ · +4
D.J. Augustin
12′ · +5
Josh Christopher
6′ · +6
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ORL and HOU.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Orlando Magic
Bamba, Carter, Anthony, Wagner, and Harris played 19.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 17 points.
Mulder, Wagner, Okeke, Hampton, and Ross played 5.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Bamba, Carter, Anthony, Wagner, and Ross played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Houston Rockets
Wood, Brooks, Mathews, Tate, and Gordon played 7.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Wood, Porter, Mathews, Tate, and Gordon played 6.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Wood, Mathews, Tate, Sengun, and Gordon played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Orlando Magic
Bamba, Carter, Anthony, Hampton, and Harris played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Wagner, Okeke, Anthony, Ross, and Harris played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Carter, Okeke, Anthony, Wagner, and Harris played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Wagner, Okeke, Anthony, Wagner, and Ross played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Bamba, Okeke, Hampton, Wagner, and Ross played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Wagner, Okeke, Hampton, Wagner, and Ross played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Bamba, Carter, Hampton, Wagner, and Ross played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Houston Rockets
Wood, Porter, Brooks, Mathews, and Tate played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
House, Martin, Christopher, Sengun, and Augustin played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Wood, House, Martin, Christopher, and Augustin played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Wood, House, Brooks, Tate, and Gordon played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Porter, Mathews, Tate, Sengun, and Gordon played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Mathews, Martin, Sengun, Gordon, and Augustin played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Wood, House, Porter, Brooks, and Martin played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Wood, House, Mathews, Tate, and Gordon played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
House, Martin, Sengun, Gordon, and Augustin played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
House, Mathews, Tate, Sengun, and Gordon played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
House, Brooks, Martin, Sengun, and Augustin played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Wood, House, Porter, Mathews, and Gordon played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Wood, House, Porter, Brooks, and Tate played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

