Win probability changed during the game. · 15 December 2021
It was more exciting than 96% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 44 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when OKC leads and falls when NOP does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · NOP
Ingram · Hart · Graham · Alexander-Walker · Temple
Closing lineup · OKC
Gilgeous-Alexander · Giddey · Williams · Muscala · Jerome
Brandon Ingram
37′ · +7
Josh Hart
35′ · +19
Jonas Valanciunas
34′ · +23
Herbert Jones
33′ · +1
Devonte' Graham
33′ · +24
Tomas Satoransky
11′ · -21
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
22′ · -5
Willy Hernangomez
13′ · -16
Garrett Temple
16′ · -10
Trey Murphy III
5′ · -7
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
37′ · -4
Josh Giddey
37′ · -6
Darius Bazley
24′ · -19
Aaron Wiggins
23′ · -23
Derrick Favors
19′ · -9
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
26′ · 0
Kenrich Williams
26′ · +20
Tre Mann
23′ · +13
Mike Muscala
14′ · +7
Ty Jerome
11′ · +3
Theo Maledon
1′ · +1
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. NOP and OKC.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
New Orleans Pelicans
Ingram, Hart, Graham, Jones, and Valanciunas played 19.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 20 points.
Hart, Graham, Alexander-Walker, Temple, and Valanciunas played 7.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Hernangomez, Ingram, Alexander-Walker, Temple, and Satoransky played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Gilgeous-Alexander, Bazley, Giddey, Wiggins, and Favors played 15.5 minutes together.
Williams, Jerome, Robinson-Earl, Mann, and Muscala played 11.3 minutes together.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Robinson-Earl, Mann, and Giddey played 5.7 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Oklahoma City Thunder lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
▸See every lineup of the game
New Orleans Pelicans
Hernangomez, Ingram, Jones, Murphy, and Satoransky played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Ingram, Hart, Alexander-Walker, Jones, and Valanciunas played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Hernangomez, Graham, Alexander-Walker, Jones, and Temple played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Ingram, Hart, Graham, Alexander-Walker, and Valanciunas played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Ingram, Hart, Jones, Valanciunas, and Satoransky played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Ingram, Graham, Jones, Murphy, and Valanciunas played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Gilgeous-Alexander, Bazley, Robinson-Earl, Giddey, and Wiggins played 2.5 minutes together.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Bazley, Robinson-Earl, and Giddey played 2.4 minutes together.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Mann, Giddey, and Muscala played 2.1 minutes together.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Robinson-Earl, Mann, Giddey, and Wiggins played 1.9 minutes together.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Robinson-Earl, Giddey, and Wiggins played 1.7 minutes together.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Bazley, Giddey, and Favors played 1.6 minutes together.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Mann, Giddey, Wiggins, and Favors played 1.0 minutes together.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

