SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 15 December 2021

NOP113–110OKC
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 96% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 44 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ OKC winsNOP wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when OKC leads and falls when NOP does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · NOP

Brandon Ingram
Josh Hart
Devonte' Graham
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Garrett Temple

Ingram · Hart · Graham · Alexander-Walker · Temple

Closing lineup · OKC

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Josh Giddey
Kenrich Williams
Mike Muscala
Ty Jerome

Gilgeous-Alexander · Giddey · Williams · Muscala · Jerome

Q1Q2Q3Q4
NOP
Brandon Ingram

Brandon Ingram

37′ · +7

Josh Hart

Josh Hart

35′ · +19

Jonas Valanciunas

Jonas Valanciunas

34′ · +23

Herbert Jones

Herbert Jones

33′ · +1

Devonte' Graham

Devonte' Graham

33′ · +24

Tomas Satoransky

Tomas Satoransky

11′ · -21

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

22′ · -5

Willy Hernangomez

Willy Hernangomez

13′ · -16

Garrett Temple

Garrett Temple

16′ · -10

Trey Murphy III

Trey Murphy III

5′ · -7

OKC
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

37′ · -4

Josh Giddey

Josh Giddey

37′ · -6

Darius Bazley

Darius Bazley

24′ · -19

Aaron Wiggins

Aaron Wiggins

23′ · -23

Derrick Favors

Derrick Favors

19′ · -9

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl

26′ · 0

Kenrich Williams

Kenrich Williams

26′ · +20

Tre Mann

Tre Mann

23′ · +13

Mike Muscala

Mike Muscala

14′ · +7

Ty Jerome

Ty Jerome

11′ · +3

Theo Maledon

Theo Maledon

1′ · +1

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. NOP and OKC.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

New Orleans Pelicans

  • Ingram, Hart, Graham, Jones, and Valanciunas played 19.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 20 points.

  • Hart, Graham, Alexander-Walker, Temple, and Valanciunas played 7.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Hernangomez, Ingram, Alexander-Walker, Temple, and Satoransky played 4.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Bazley, Giddey, Wiggins, and Favors played 15.5 minutes together.

  • Williams, Jerome, Robinson-Earl, Mann, and Muscala played 11.3 minutes together.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Robinson-Earl, Mann, and Giddey played 5.7 minutes together.

The plus-minus of each Oklahoma City Thunder lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.

▸See every lineup of the game

New Orleans Pelicans

  • Hernangomez, Ingram, Jones, Murphy, and Satoransky played 3.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.

  • Ingram, Hart, Alexander-Walker, Jones, and Valanciunas played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Hernangomez, Graham, Alexander-Walker, Jones, and Temple played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Ingram, Hart, Graham, Alexander-Walker, and Valanciunas played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Ingram, Hart, Jones, Valanciunas, and Satoransky played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Ingram, Graham, Jones, Murphy, and Valanciunas played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Bazley, Robinson-Earl, Giddey, and Wiggins played 2.5 minutes together.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Bazley, Robinson-Earl, and Giddey played 2.4 minutes together.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Mann, Giddey, and Muscala played 2.1 minutes together.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Robinson-Earl, Mann, Giddey, and Wiggins played 1.9 minutes together.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Robinson-Earl, Giddey, and Wiggins played 1.7 minutes together.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Bazley, Giddey, and Favors played 1.6 minutes together.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Mann, Giddey, Wiggins, and Favors played 1.0 minutes together.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
13.253
72.8% of capacity
Paycom Center · Oklahoma City
Scoring
223
combined points
1.8 above the season average (221.2)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

15 calls reviewed2 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Personal · 00:03.9
Garrett Temple → Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Temple (NOP) brings his hand forward to commit a take foul on GIlgeous-Alexander (OKC), and contact occurs to Gilgeous-Alexander's left arm. Additionally, the contact occurs prior to Gilgeous-Alexander's gather and upward shooting motion.
Stoppage: Out-of-Bounds · 01:46.0
Herbert Jones → Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Jones (NOP) is the last player to touch the ball before the ball goes out of bounds. Possession should have been awarded to Oklahoma City.