SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 11 January 2022

MIN125–128NOP
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 90% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ NOP winsMIN wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when NOP leads and falls when MIN does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · MIN

Karl-Anthony Towns
Anthony Edwards
Patrick Beverley
Josh Okogie
Taurean Prince

Towns · Edwards · Beverley · Okogie · Prince

Closing lineup · NOP

Brandon Ingram
Josh Hart
Devonte' Graham
Jonas Valanciunas
Herbert Jones

Ingram · Hart · Graham · Valanciunas · Jones

Q1Q2Q3Q4
MIN
Karl-Anthony Towns

Karl-Anthony Towns

42′ · -2

Anthony Edwards

Anthony Edwards

37′ · -2

D'Angelo Russell

D'Angelo Russell

34′ · +11

Jarred Vanderbilt

Jarred Vanderbilt

26′ · -13

Patrick Beverley

Patrick Beverley

21′ · -18

Jaden McDaniels

Jaden McDaniels

28′ · +2

Malik Beasley

Malik Beasley

30′ · +12

Josh Okogie

Josh Okogie

7′ · -6

Jaylen Nowell

Jaylen Nowell

2′ · -2

Naz Reid

Naz Reid

6′ · +1

Taurean Prince

Taurean Prince

8′ · +2

NOP
Brandon Ingram

Brandon Ingram

37′ · +2

Josh Hart

Josh Hart

36′ · -1

Devonte' Graham

Devonte' Graham

32′ · +14

Jonas Valanciunas

Jonas Valanciunas

28′ · +8

Herbert Jones

Herbert Jones

25′ · -8

Garrett Temple

Garrett Temple

18′ · -2

Jaxson Hayes

Jaxson Hayes

19′ · 0

Jose Alvarado

Jose Alvarado

12′ · +2

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

27′ · +6

Gary Clark

Gary Clark

6′ · -6

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MIN and NOP.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • Russell, Towns, Vanderbilt, Edwards, and Beverley played 9.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Russell, Towns, Beasley, Edwards, and McDaniels played 7.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 9 points.

  • Russell, Towns, Beasley, Vanderbilt, and Edwards played 7.0 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

New Orleans Pelicans

  • Ingram, Hart, Graham, Jones, and Valanciunas played 17.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Hart, Graham, Alexander-Walker, Temple, and Valanciunas played 6.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Ingram, Hayes, Alexander-Walker, Alvarado, and Temple played 6.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • Towns, Beasley, Prince, McDaniels, and Beverley played 4.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Russell, Beasley, Vanderbilt, Reid, and Edwards played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Towns, Vanderbilt, Edwards, McDaniels, and Beverley played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Russell, Towns, Vanderbilt, Edwards, and McDaniels played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Russell, Towns, Prince, Edwards, and McDaniels played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Beasley, Okogie, Reid, McDaniels, and Beverley played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Towns, Beasley, Okogie, Nowell, and McDaniels played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Towns, Beasley, Okogie, McDaniels, and Beverley played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Russell, Towns, Beasley, Prince, and McDaniels played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

New Orleans Pelicans

  • Ingram, Hart, Hayes, Alexander-Walker, and Jones played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Ingram, Clark, Hayes, Alexander-Walker, and Alvarado played 3.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Ingram, Hart, Graham, Hayes, and Alexander-Walker played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Graham, Clark, Hayes, Alexander-Walker, and Temple played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Hart, Graham, Alexander-Walker, Jones, and Valanciunas played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Hart, Alexander-Walker, Jones, Temple, and Valanciunas played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
15.155
89.9% of capacity
Smoothie King Center · New Orleans
Scoring
253
combined points
31.8 above the season average (221.2)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

18 calls reviewed3 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Offensive · 00:09.1
D'Angelo Russell → Josh Hart
Russell (MIN) moves laterally into Hart's (NOP) path and continues to re-establish himself in Hart's path as he delivers contact.
Foul: Personal · 00:34.1
Anthony Edwards → Devonte' Graham
Edwards (MIN) holds Graham's (NOP) arm and affects his SQBR as Graham attempts to release from the contact.
Foul: Personal · 00:59.2
Karl-Anthony Towns → Jonas Valanciunas
Towns (MIN) holds Valanciunas' (NOP) arm off ball and affects his FOM as he cuts to the perimeter.