Win probability changed during the game. · 11 January 2022
It was more exciting than 90% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when NOP leads and falls when MIN does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · MIN
Towns · Edwards · Beverley · Okogie · Prince
Closing lineup · NOP
Ingram · Hart · Graham · Valanciunas · Jones
Karl-Anthony Towns
42′ · -2
Anthony Edwards
37′ · -2
D'Angelo Russell
34′ · +11
Jarred Vanderbilt
26′ · -13
Patrick Beverley
21′ · -18
Jaden McDaniels
28′ · +2
Malik Beasley
30′ · +12
Josh Okogie
7′ · -6
Jaylen Nowell
2′ · -2
Naz Reid
6′ · +1
Taurean Prince
8′ · +2
Brandon Ingram
37′ · +2
Josh Hart
36′ · -1
Devonte' Graham
32′ · +14
Jonas Valanciunas
28′ · +8
Herbert Jones
25′ · -8
Garrett Temple
18′ · -2
Jaxson Hayes
19′ · 0
Jose Alvarado
12′ · +2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
27′ · +6
Gary Clark
6′ · -6
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MIN and NOP.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Russell, Towns, Vanderbilt, Edwards, and Beverley played 9.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Russell, Towns, Beasley, Edwards, and McDaniels played 7.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Russell, Towns, Beasley, Vanderbilt, and Edwards played 7.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
New Orleans Pelicans
Ingram, Hart, Graham, Jones, and Valanciunas played 17.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Hart, Graham, Alexander-Walker, Temple, and Valanciunas played 6.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Ingram, Hayes, Alexander-Walker, Alvarado, and Temple played 6.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Minnesota Timberwolves
Towns, Beasley, Prince, McDaniels, and Beverley played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Russell, Beasley, Vanderbilt, Reid, and Edwards played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Towns, Vanderbilt, Edwards, McDaniels, and Beverley played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Russell, Towns, Vanderbilt, Edwards, and McDaniels played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Russell, Towns, Prince, Edwards, and McDaniels played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Beasley, Okogie, Reid, McDaniels, and Beverley played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Towns, Beasley, Okogie, Nowell, and McDaniels played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Towns, Beasley, Okogie, McDaniels, and Beverley played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Russell, Towns, Beasley, Prince, and McDaniels played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
New Orleans Pelicans
Ingram, Hart, Hayes, Alexander-Walker, and Jones played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Ingram, Clark, Hayes, Alexander-Walker, and Alvarado played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Ingram, Hart, Graham, Hayes, and Alexander-Walker played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Graham, Clark, Hayes, Alexander-Walker, and Temple played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Hart, Graham, Alexander-Walker, Jones, and Valanciunas played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Hart, Alexander-Walker, Jones, Temple, and Valanciunas played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

