SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 21 January 2022

HOU103–105GSW
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 89% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 28 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ GSW winsHOU wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when GSW leads and falls when HOU does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · HOU

Eric Gordon
Christian Wood
Kevin Porter Jr.
Jae'Sean Tate
KJ Martin

Gordon · Wood · Porter · Tate · Martin

Closing lineup · GSW

Stephen Curry
Andrew Wiggins
Jordan Poole
Otto Porter Jr.
Damion Lee

Curry · Wiggins · Poole · Porter · Lee

Q1Q2Q3Q4
HOU
Eric Gordon

Eric Gordon

34′ · -14

Christian Wood

Christian Wood

34′ · -3

Kevin Porter Jr.

Kevin Porter Jr.

34′ · -3

Jalen Green

Jalen Green

25′ · -13

Jae'Sean Tate

Jae'Sean Tate

22′ · -7

KJ Martin

KJ Martin

26′ · +3

Garrison Mathews

Garrison Mathews

24′ · +8

Armoni Brooks

Armoni Brooks

14′ · +6

Alperen Sengun

Alperen Sengun

14′ · +1

Josh Christopher

Josh Christopher

14′ · +12

GSW
Stephen Curry

Stephen Curry

39′ · +2

Andrew Wiggins

Andrew Wiggins

35′ · +5

Kevon Looney

Kevon Looney

32′ · +6

Jordan Poole

Jordan Poole

32′ · +18

Otto Porter Jr.

Otto Porter Jr.

27′ · +16

Gary Payton II

Gary Payton II

21′ · -9

Damion Lee

Damion Lee

21′ · -12

Nemanja Bjelica

Nemanja Bjelica

16′ · -6

Jonathan Kuminga

Jonathan Kuminga

15′ · -7

Juan Toscano-Anderson

Juan Toscano-Anderson

3′ · -3

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. HOU and GSW.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Houston Rockets

  • Wood, Porter, Green, Tate, and Gordon played 15.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 11 points.

  • Brooks, Mathews, Martin, Sengun, and Gordon played 7.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Wood, Porter, Brooks, Mathews, and Martin played 6.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

Golden State Warriors

  • Looney, Poole, Curry, Porter, and Wiggins played 22.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 16 points.

  • Payton, Lee, Kuminga, Curry, and Bjelica played 5.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Looney, Payton, Lee, Curry, and Wiggins played 4.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Houston Rockets

  • Mathews, Martin, Christopher, Sengun, and Gordon played 3.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Wood, Porter, Green, Martin, and Gordon played 3.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Mathews, Tate, Christopher, Sengun, and Gordon played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Wood, Porter, Green, Tate, and Christopher played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Wood, Porter, Mathews, Martin, and Christopher played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Wood, Porter, Green, Martin, and Christopher played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Wood, Porter, Mathews, Green, and Martin played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

Golden State Warriors

  • Lee, Toscano-Anderson, Poole, Kuminga, and Bjelica played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Payton, Lee, Poole, Kuminga, and Bjelica played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Payton, Lee, Curry, Bjelica, and Wiggins played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Looney, Payton, Kuminga, Curry, and Wiggins played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Payton, Poole, Kuminga, Bjelica, and Porter played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Looney, Payton, Lee, Poole, and Wiggins played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Looney, Lee, Curry, Porter, and Wiggins played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Payton, Kuminga, Curry, Bjelica, and Porter played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
18.064
100% of capacity
Chase Center · San Francisco
Scoring
208
combined points
13.2 below the season average (221.2)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

31 calls reviewed0 no admitted errors