Win probability changed during the game. · 21 January 2022
It was more exciting than 89% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 28 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when GSW leads and falls when HOU does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · HOU
Gordon · Wood · Porter · Tate · Martin
Closing lineup · GSW
Curry · Wiggins · Poole · Porter · Lee
Eric Gordon
34′ · -14
Christian Wood
34′ · -3
Kevin Porter Jr.
34′ · -3
Jalen Green
25′ · -13
Jae'Sean Tate
22′ · -7
KJ Martin
26′ · +3
Garrison Mathews
24′ · +8
Armoni Brooks
14′ · +6
Alperen Sengun
14′ · +1
Josh Christopher
14′ · +12
Stephen Curry
39′ · +2
Andrew Wiggins
35′ · +5
Kevon Looney
32′ · +6
Jordan Poole
32′ · +18
Otto Porter Jr.
27′ · +16
Gary Payton II
21′ · -9
Damion Lee
21′ · -12
Nemanja Bjelica
16′ · -6
Jonathan Kuminga
15′ · -7
Juan Toscano-Anderson
3′ · -3
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. HOU and GSW.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Houston Rockets
Wood, Porter, Green, Tate, and Gordon played 15.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 11 points.
Brooks, Mathews, Martin, Sengun, and Gordon played 7.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Wood, Porter, Brooks, Mathews, and Martin played 6.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Golden State Warriors
Looney, Poole, Curry, Porter, and Wiggins played 22.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 16 points.
Payton, Lee, Kuminga, Curry, and Bjelica played 5.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Looney, Payton, Lee, Curry, and Wiggins played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Houston Rockets
Mathews, Martin, Christopher, Sengun, and Gordon played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Wood, Porter, Green, Martin, and Gordon played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Mathews, Tate, Christopher, Sengun, and Gordon played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Wood, Porter, Green, Tate, and Christopher played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Wood, Porter, Mathews, Martin, and Christopher played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Wood, Porter, Green, Martin, and Christopher played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Wood, Porter, Mathews, Green, and Martin played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Golden State Warriors
Lee, Toscano-Anderson, Poole, Kuminga, and Bjelica played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Payton, Lee, Poole, Kuminga, and Bjelica played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Payton, Lee, Curry, Bjelica, and Wiggins played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Looney, Payton, Kuminga, Curry, and Wiggins played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Payton, Poole, Kuminga, Bjelica, and Porter played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Looney, Payton, Lee, Poole, and Wiggins played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Looney, Lee, Curry, Porter, and Wiggins played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Payton, Kuminga, Curry, Bjelica, and Porter played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

