Win probability changed during the game. · 5 March 2022
It was more exciting than 86% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 16 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DAL leads and falls when SAC does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · SAC
Fox · Barnes · Sabonis · Holiday · DiVincenzo
Closing lineup · DAL
Bullock · Brunson · Dinwiddie · Finney-Smith · Green
De'Aaron Fox
40′ · +6
Harrison Barnes
38′ · +5
Domantas Sabonis
32′ · +1
Justin Holiday
29′ · +5
Trey Lyles
18′ · +11
Donte DiVincenzo
34′ · -9
Richaun Holmes
16′ · 0
Davion Mitchell
23′ · -18
Chimezie Metu
10′ · -6
Reggie Bullock Jr.
42′ · +2
Jalen Brunson
37′ · +1
Spencer Dinwiddie
36′ · +5
Dorian Finney-Smith
33′ · -6
Dwight Powell
28′ · -5
Josh Green
29′ · +5
Davis Bertans
15′ · +2
Trey Burke
4′ · -2
Sterling Brown
9′ · +2
Frank Ntilikina
8′ · 0
Boban Marjanovic
0′ · 0
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAC and DAL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Sacramento Kings
Lyles, Sabonis, Fox, Barnes, and Holiday played 14.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Holmes, Fox, DiVincenzo, Mitchell, and Barnes played 7.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Sabonis, DiVincenzo, Metu, Mitchell, and Holiday played 6.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Dallas Mavericks
Finney-Smith, Brunson, Bullock, Dinwiddie, and Powell played 13.7 minutes together.
Finney-Smith, Brunson, Green, Bullock, and Dinwiddie played 5.5 minutes together.
Finney-Smith, Green, Bullock, Dinwiddie, and Powell played 5.2 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Dallas Mavericks lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
▸See every lineup of the game
Sacramento Kings
Sabonis, Fox, DiVincenzo, Barnes, and Holiday played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Holmes, Fox, DiVincenzo, Metu, and Mitchell played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Sabonis, Fox, DiVincenzo, Mitchell, and Barnes played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Holmes, Fox, DiVincenzo, Barnes, and Holiday played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Lyles, Sabonis, Fox, DiVincenzo, and Barnes played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Holmes, Lyles, Fox, DiVincenzo, and Barnes played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Sabonis, DiVincenzo, Mitchell, Barnes, and Holiday played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Dallas Mavericks
Brunson, Green, Bertans, Bullock, and Dinwiddie played 4.8 minutes together.
Finney-Smith, Brunson, Green, Bertans, and Bullock played 4.1 minutes together.
Finney-Smith, Brunson, Green, Bullock, and Powell played 3.5 minutes together.
Ntilikina, Brown, Burke, Dinwiddie, and Powell played 2.9 minutes together.
Ntilikina, Brown, Brunson, Green, and Bertans played 2.5 minutes together.
Brown, Brunson, Green, Bertans, and Bullock played 1.9 minutes together.
Ntilikina, Brown, Bullock, Dinwiddie, and Powell played 1.5 minutes together.
Finney-Smith, Green, Bertans, Burke, and Dinwiddie played 1.1 minutes together.
Ntilikina, Brunson, Bullock, Dinwiddie, and Powell played 1.1 minutes together.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

