SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 5 March 2022

SAC113–114DAL
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 86% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 16 times

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ DAL winsSAC wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DAL leads and falls when SAC does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · SAC

De'Aaron Fox
Harrison Barnes
Domantas Sabonis
Justin Holiday
Donte DiVincenzo

Fox · Barnes · Sabonis · Holiday · DiVincenzo

Closing lineup · DAL

Reggie Bullock Jr.
Jalen Brunson
Spencer Dinwiddie
Dorian Finney-Smith
Josh Green

Bullock · Brunson · Dinwiddie · Finney-Smith · Green

Q1Q2Q3Q4
SAC
De'Aaron Fox

De'Aaron Fox

40′ · +6

Harrison Barnes

Harrison Barnes

38′ · +5

Domantas Sabonis

Domantas Sabonis

32′ · +1

Justin Holiday

Justin Holiday

29′ · +5

Trey Lyles

Trey Lyles

18′ · +11

Donte DiVincenzo

Donte DiVincenzo

34′ · -9

Richaun Holmes

Richaun Holmes

16′ · 0

Davion Mitchell

Davion Mitchell

23′ · -18

Chimezie Metu

Chimezie Metu

10′ · -6

DAL
Reggie Bullock Jr.

Reggie Bullock Jr.

42′ · +2

Jalen Brunson

Jalen Brunson

37′ · +1

Spencer Dinwiddie

Spencer Dinwiddie

36′ · +5

Dorian Finney-Smith

Dorian Finney-Smith

33′ · -6

Dwight Powell

Dwight Powell

28′ · -5

Josh Green

Josh Green

29′ · +5

Davis Bertans

Davis Bertans

15′ · +2

Trey Burke

Trey Burke

4′ · -2

Sterling Brown

Sterling Brown

9′ · +2

Frank Ntilikina

Frank Ntilikina

8′ · 0

Boban Marjanovic

Boban Marjanovic

0′ · 0

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAC and DAL.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Sacramento Kings

  • Lyles, Sabonis, Fox, Barnes, and Holiday played 14.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Holmes, Fox, DiVincenzo, Mitchell, and Barnes played 7.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Sabonis, DiVincenzo, Metu, Mitchell, and Holiday played 6.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.

Dallas Mavericks

  • Finney-Smith, Brunson, Bullock, Dinwiddie, and Powell played 13.7 minutes together.

  • Finney-Smith, Brunson, Green, Bullock, and Dinwiddie played 5.5 minutes together.

  • Finney-Smith, Green, Bullock, Dinwiddie, and Powell played 5.2 minutes together.

The plus-minus of each Dallas Mavericks lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.

▸See every lineup of the game

Sacramento Kings

  • Sabonis, Fox, DiVincenzo, Barnes, and Holiday played 4.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Holmes, Fox, DiVincenzo, Metu, and Mitchell played 4.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Sabonis, Fox, DiVincenzo, Mitchell, and Barnes played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Holmes, Fox, DiVincenzo, Barnes, and Holiday played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Lyles, Sabonis, Fox, DiVincenzo, and Barnes played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Holmes, Lyles, Fox, DiVincenzo, and Barnes played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Sabonis, DiVincenzo, Mitchell, Barnes, and Holiday played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

Dallas Mavericks

  • Brunson, Green, Bertans, Bullock, and Dinwiddie played 4.8 minutes together.

  • Finney-Smith, Brunson, Green, Bertans, and Bullock played 4.1 minutes together.

  • Finney-Smith, Brunson, Green, Bullock, and Powell played 3.5 minutes together.

  • Ntilikina, Brown, Burke, Dinwiddie, and Powell played 2.9 minutes together.

  • Ntilikina, Brown, Brunson, Green, and Bertans played 2.5 minutes together.

  • Brown, Brunson, Green, Bertans, and Bullock played 1.9 minutes together.

  • Ntilikina, Brown, Bullock, Dinwiddie, and Powell played 1.5 minutes together.

  • Finney-Smith, Green, Bertans, Burke, and Dinwiddie played 1.1 minutes together.

  • Ntilikina, Brunson, Bullock, Dinwiddie, and Powell played 1.1 minutes together.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
20.060
104.5% of capacity
American Airlines Center · Dallas
Scoring
227
combined points
5.8 above the season average (221.2)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

13 calls reviewed2 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Shooting · 00:57.7
Spencer Dinwiddie → De'Aaron Fox
Dinwiddie (DAL) makes contact with Fox's (SAC) body as he gathers and enters his upward shooting motion. The contact affects his driving shot attempt.
Foul: Defense 3 Second · 01:08
Jalen Brunson → Kings
Brunson (DAL) fails to fully clear the lane and is in the paint for longer than three seconds without imminently actively guarding an opponent.