Win probability changed during the game. · 16 March 2022
It was more exciting than 86% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 20 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when BKN leads and falls when DAL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · DAL
Doncic · Brunson · Finney-Smith · Dinwiddie · Kleber
Closing lineup · BKN
Durant · Brown · Dragic · Claxton · Johnson
Luka Doncic
39′ · -4
Jalen Brunson
34′ · +7
Dorian Finney-Smith
34′ · +10
Spencer Dinwiddie
33′ · -4
Dwight Powell
30′ · -5
Maxi Kleber
30′ · +7
Josh Green
18′ · +2
Frank Ntilikina
3′ · 0
Davis Bertans
9′ · +6
Sterling Brown
9′ · -9
Kevin Durant
40′ · +2
Bruce Brown
39′ · +4
Goran Dragic
36′ · +3
Patty Mills
36′ · -3
Andre Drummond
22′ · -11
Kessler Edwards
20′ · -3
Nic Claxton
26′ · +9
James Johnson
16′ · -13
Cam Thomas
6′ · +2
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DAL and BKN.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Dallas Mavericks
Finney-Smith, Brunson, Doncic, Dinwiddie, and Powell played 10.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Finney-Smith, Kleber, Brunson, Doncic, and Powell played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Finney-Smith, Kleber, Brunson, Doncic, and Dinwiddie played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Brooklyn Nets
Brown, Durant, Dragic, Mills, and Drummond played 9.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Brown, Claxton, Edwards, Durant, and Mills played 6.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Claxton, Thomas, Dragic, Johnson, and Mills played 5.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Dallas Mavericks
Brown, Kleber, Doncic, Green, and Dinwiddie played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Finney-Smith, Brunson, Bertans, Dinwiddie, and Powell played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Finney-Smith, Ntilikina, Kleber, Doncic, and Green played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Brown, Brunson, Bertans, Dinwiddie, and Powell played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Finney-Smith, Kleber, Doncic, Green, and Powell played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Kleber, Brunson, Doncic, Green, and Powell played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Brown, Kleber, Brunson, Bertans, and Dinwiddie played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Finney-Smith, Kleber, Brunson, Doncic, and Green played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Kleber, Brunson, Green, Bertans, and Dinwiddie played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Kleber, Doncic, Green, Dinwiddie, and Powell played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Finney-Smith, Kleber, Doncic, Green, and Dinwiddie played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Kleber, Brunson, Doncic, Dinwiddie, and Powell played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Brooklyn Nets
Brown, Claxton, Durant, Dragic, and Mills played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Brown, Edwards, Durant, Dragic, and Drummond played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Brown, Claxton, Edwards, Durant, and Dragic played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Brown, Claxton, Durant, Johnson, and Mills played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Brown, Edwards, Durant, Mills, and Drummond played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Edwards, Dragic, Johnson, Mills, and Drummond played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Brown, Edwards, Dragic, Johnson, and Drummond played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Durant, Dragic, Johnson, Mills, and Drummond played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Brown, Durant, Dragic, Johnson, and Drummond played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

