Win probability changed during the game. · 20 March 2022
It was more exciting than 98% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 39 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when GSW leads and falls when SAS does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · SAS
Murray · Johnson · Poeltl · Richardson · Collins
Closing lineup · GSW
Thompson · Poole · Wiggins · Porter · Bjelica
Dejounte Murray
34′ · -8
Keldon Johnson
34′ · +5
Joshua Primo
34′ · +10
Devin Vassell
33′ · +7
Jakob Poeltl
26′ · +11
Josh Richardson
27′ · -3
Tre Jones
21′ · +10
Zach Collins
19′ · -6
Joe Wieskamp
5′ · -9
Jock Landale
7′ · -7
Klay Thompson
38′ · -13
Jordan Poole
36′ · -5
Andrew Wiggins
33′ · +1
Draymond Green
18′ · +2
Kevon Looney
17′ · -16
Otto Porter Jr.
29′ · -2
Chris Chiozza
19′ · +2
Nemanja Bjelica
25′ · +10
Jonathan Kuminga
23′ · +11
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAS and GSW.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
San Antonio Spurs
Murray, Poeltl, Johnson, Vassell, and Primo played 13.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Murray, Collins, Johnson, Vassell, and Primo played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Richardson, Poeltl, Vassell, Jones, and Primo played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Golden State Warriors
Looney, Poole, Thompson, Green, and Wiggins played 11.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Chiozza, Kuminga, Bjelica, Thompson, and Porter played 6.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Looney, Poole, Thompson, Porter, and Wiggins played 5.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 14 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
San Antonio Spurs
Richardson, Murray, Collins, Jones, and Primo played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Richardson, Murray, Johnson, Vassell, and Primo played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Richardson, Murray, Collins, Landale, and Vassell played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Richardson, Collins, Landale, Vassell, and Jones played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Poeltl, Johnson, Jones, Primo, and Wieskamp played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Richardson, Poeltl, Johnson, Jones, and Primo played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Richardson, Murray, Collins, Johnson, and Jones played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Richardson, Murray, Poeltl, Johnson, and Wieskamp played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Richardson, Poeltl, Johnson, Vassell, and Jones played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Richardson, Murray, Collins, Landale, and Jones played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Richardson, Collins, Johnson, Jones, and Primo played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Golden State Warriors
Chiozza, Kuminga, Bjelica, Thompson, and Green played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Poole, Thompson, Green, Porter, and Wiggins played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Poole, Kuminga, Bjelica, Porter, and Wiggins played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Poole, Bjelica, Thompson, Porter, and Wiggins played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Poole, Kuminga, Thompson, Porter, and Wiggins played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Chiozza, Poole, Kuminga, Bjelica, and Porter played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Chiozza, Poole, Kuminga, Bjelica, and Thompson played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Chiozza, Poole, Kuminga, Bjelica, and Wiggins played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.
