SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 31 March 2022

MIL120–119BKN
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 98% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 26 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ BKN winsMIL wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when BKN leads and falls when MIL does.

Game context

Attendance
17.917
101% of capacity
Barclays Center · Brooklyn
Scoring
239
combined points
17.8 above the season average (221.2)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

29 calls reviewed5 errors admitted by the NBA
Turnover: Traveling · 00:04
Kevin Durant → Bucks
Durant (BKN) switches his pivot foot prior to the shot attempt.
Foul: Loose Ball · 00:18.8
Seth Curry → Wesley Matthews
Curry (BKN) dislodges Matthews (MIL) from his legally obtained rebounding position.
Foul: Shooting · 01:30.1
Giannis Antetokounmpo → Bruce Brown
Antetokounmpo (MIL) makes contact to Brown's (BKN) wrist and affects his putback dunk attempt.
Violation: Lane · 01:39.6
Seth Curry → Giannis Antetokounmpo
Curry (BKN) is positioned inside of the three-point arc before Antetokounmpo (MIL) releases his free throw attempt.