SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 8 April 2022

HOU115–117TOR
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 85% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ TOR winsHOU wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when TOR leads and falls when HOU does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · HOU

Kevin Porter Jr.
Jalen Green
Alperen Sengun
Jae'Sean Tate
Josh Christopher

Porter · Green · Sengun · Tate · Christopher

Closing lineup · TOR

Pascal Siakam
Gary Trent Jr.
Scottie Barnes
Thaddeus Young
Yuta Watanabe

Siakam · Trent · Barnes · Young · Watanabe

Q1Q2Q3Q4
HOU
Kevin Porter Jr.

Kevin Porter Jr.

39′ · +5

Jalen Green

Jalen Green

37′ · +3

Alperen Sengun

Alperen Sengun

33′ · -1

Garrison Mathews

Garrison Mathews

26′ · -4

Jae'Sean Tate

Jae'Sean Tate

26′ · -14

Josh Christopher

Josh Christopher

30′ · 0

KJ Martin

KJ Martin

21′ · +10

Usman Garuba

Usman Garuba

15′ · -1

Daishen Nix

Daishen Nix

13′ · -8

TOR
Pascal Siakam

Pascal Siakam

40′ · +11

Gary Trent Jr.

Gary Trent Jr.

38′ · +11

Scottie Barnes

Scottie Barnes

34′ · +8

Khem Birch

Khem Birch

27′ · +22

Armoni Brooks

Armoni Brooks

15′ · +3

Chris Boucher

Chris Boucher

20′ · -18

Precious Achiuwa

Precious Achiuwa

12′ · -28

Malachi Flynn

Malachi Flynn

11′ · -24

Justin Champagnie

Justin Champagnie

7′ · -8

Thaddeus Young

Thaddeus Young

24′ · +21

Yuta Watanabe

Yuta Watanabe

12′ · +12

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. HOU and TOR.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Houston Rockets

  • Porter, Mathews, Green, Tate, and Sengun played 16.9 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Porter, Green, Martin, Christopher, and Sengun played 8.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 11 points.

  • Porter, Green, Tate, Christopher, and Sengun played 6.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

Toronto Raptors

  • Siakam, Trent, Brooks, Barnes, and Birch played 13.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Siakam, Trent, Watanabe, Barnes, and Young played 8.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Siakam, Boucher, Trent, Young, and Birch played 5.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Houston Rockets

  • Mathews, Nix, Martin, Christopher, and Garuba played 6.0 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Porter, Nix, Martin, Christopher, and Garuba played 3.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Porter, Green, Martin, Christopher, and Garuba played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Green, Nix, Martin, Christopher, and Garuba played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Porter, Mathews, Green, Tate, and Garuba played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

Toronto Raptors

  • Boucher, Achiuwa, Flynn, Champagnie, and Barnes played 4.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.

  • Siakam, Watanabe, Barnes, Young, and Birch played 3.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Siakam, Boucher, Trent, Achiuwa, and Flynn played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.

  • Boucher, Trent, Barnes, Young, and Birch played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Siakam, Boucher, Trent, Achiuwa, and Barnes played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Boucher, Trent, Achiuwa, Flynn, and Young played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Siakam, Flynn, Champagnie, Young, and Birch played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Siakam, Boucher, Trent, Brooks, and Achiuwa played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Siakam, Trent, Champagnie, Young, and Birch played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
19.800
100% of capacity
Scotiabank Arena · Toronto
Scoring
232
combined points
10.8 above the season average (221.2)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

13 calls reviewed0 no admitted errors