Win probability changed during the game. · 8 April 2022
It was more exciting than 85% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when TOR leads and falls when HOU does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · HOU
Porter · Green · Sengun · Tate · Christopher
Closing lineup · TOR
Siakam · Trent · Barnes · Young · Watanabe
Kevin Porter Jr.
39′ · +5
Jalen Green
37′ · +3
Alperen Sengun
33′ · -1
Garrison Mathews
26′ · -4
Jae'Sean Tate
26′ · -14
Josh Christopher
30′ · 0
KJ Martin
21′ · +10
Usman Garuba
15′ · -1
Daishen Nix
13′ · -8
Pascal Siakam
40′ · +11
Gary Trent Jr.
38′ · +11
Scottie Barnes
34′ · +8
Khem Birch
27′ · +22
Armoni Brooks
15′ · +3
Chris Boucher
20′ · -18
Precious Achiuwa
12′ · -28
Malachi Flynn
11′ · -24
Justin Champagnie
7′ · -8
Thaddeus Young
24′ · +21
Yuta Watanabe
12′ · +12
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. HOU and TOR.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Houston Rockets
Porter, Mathews, Green, Tate, and Sengun played 16.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Porter, Green, Martin, Christopher, and Sengun played 8.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 11 points.
Porter, Green, Tate, Christopher, and Sengun played 6.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Toronto Raptors
Siakam, Trent, Brooks, Barnes, and Birch played 13.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Siakam, Trent, Watanabe, Barnes, and Young played 8.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Siakam, Boucher, Trent, Young, and Birch played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Houston Rockets
Mathews, Nix, Martin, Christopher, and Garuba played 6.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Porter, Nix, Martin, Christopher, and Garuba played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Porter, Green, Martin, Christopher, and Garuba played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Green, Nix, Martin, Christopher, and Garuba played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Porter, Mathews, Green, Tate, and Garuba played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Toronto Raptors
Boucher, Achiuwa, Flynn, Champagnie, and Barnes played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Siakam, Watanabe, Barnes, Young, and Birch played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Siakam, Boucher, Trent, Achiuwa, and Flynn played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Boucher, Trent, Barnes, Young, and Birch played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Siakam, Boucher, Trent, Achiuwa, and Barnes played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Boucher, Trent, Achiuwa, Flynn, and Young played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Siakam, Flynn, Champagnie, Young, and Birch played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Siakam, Boucher, Trent, Brooks, and Achiuwa played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Siakam, Trent, Champagnie, Young, and Birch played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

