SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 17 April 2022

BKN114–115BOS
Is it worth watching?
Recommended

It was more exciting than 68% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ BOS winsBKN wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when BOS leads and falls when BKN does.

Game context

Attendance
19.156
102.9% of capacity
TD Garden · Boston
Series
Game 1
First round
BOS 4-0
Scoring
229
combined points
16.4 above the season average (212.6)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

32 calls reviewed2 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Personal · 00:54.0
Jayson Tatum → Kevin Durant
Tatum (BOS) initiates contact with Durant (BKN) off ball that re-routes him and affects his FOM.
Foul: Loose Ball · 01:34.5
Seth Curry → Jaylen Brown
Curry (BKN) fully extends both hands against Brown's (BOS) back and delivers contact that alters Brown's body trajectory as he elevates for the rebound. This contact causes the subsequent contact between Claxton (BKN) and Brown thereafter.