Win probability changed during the game. · 20 April 2022
It was more exciting than 90% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 24 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when TOR leads and falls when PHI does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · PHI
Maxey · Harris · Green · Embiid · Jordan
Closing lineup · TOR
Siakam · Anunoby · Trent · VanVleet · Achiuwa
Tyrese Maxey
47′ · +8
Tobias Harris
47′ · +7
Danny Green
46′ · +10
Joel Embiid
44′ · +8
James Harden
38′ · 0
Shake Milton
11′ · -7
Georges Niang
23′ · -6
Paul Reed
9′ · -5
DeAndre Jordan
0′ · 0
Pascal Siakam
48′ · -4
OG Anunoby
46′ · +1
Gary Trent Jr.
45′ · -7
Fred VanVleet
45′ · -7
Khem Birch
14′ · -2
Precious Achiuwa
36′ · +2
Chris Boucher
17′ · +7
Malachi Flynn
8′ · +4
Thaddeus Young
6′ · -9
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. PHI and TOR.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Philadelphia 76ers
Maxey, Harden, Green, Harris, and Embiid played 23.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
Niang, Maxey, Green, Harris, and Embiid played 10.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Niang, Milton, Harden, Green, and Embiid played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Toronto Raptors
Siakam, VanVleet, Anunoby, Trent, and Achiuwa played 18.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Siakam, VanVleet, Anunoby, Trent, and Birch played 14.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Siakam, Anunoby, Boucher, Achiuwa, and Flynn played 5.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Philadelphia 76ers
Maxey, Reed, Harden, Green, and Harris played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Niang, Milton, Maxey, Harris, and Embiid played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Niang, Maxey, Reed, Harden, and Harris played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Niang, Maxey, Reed, Harden, and Green played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Milton, Harden, Green, Harris, and Embiid played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Milton, Maxey, Green, Harris, and Embiid played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Toronto Raptors
Siakam, VanVleet, Boucher, Trent, and Achiuwa played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
VanVleet, Anunoby, Boucher, Trent, and Achiuwa played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Siakam, VanVleet, Trent, Achiuwa, and Young played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Siakam, Anunoby, Boucher, Flynn, and Young played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Siakam, VanVleet, Anunoby, Trent, and Young played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.
