Win probability changed during the game. · 19 October 2022
It was more exciting than 70% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 22 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when PHX leads and falls when DAL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · DAL
Finney-Smith · Doncic · Bullock · Dinwiddie · Kleber
Closing lineup · PHX
Bridges · Booker · Ayton · Payne · Lee
Dorian Finney-Smith
38′ · -10
Luka Doncic
37′ · -16
Reggie Bullock Jr.
30′ · -11
Spencer Dinwiddie
28′ · +2
JaVale McGee
14′ · -5
Tim Hardaway Jr.
25′ · -2
Christian Wood
24′ · +9
Maxi Kleber
26′ · +5
Josh Green
18′ · +18
Mikal Bridges
41′ · +15
Devin Booker
41′ · +20
Deandre Ayton
30′ · +15
Chris Paul
30′ · -9
Cameron Johnson
27′ · -3
Cameron Payne
19′ · +15
Jock Landale
10′ · -6
Torrey Craig
9′ · -7
Damion Lee
20′ · -7
Josh Okogie
4′ · -8
Dario Saric
2′ · -8
Bismack Biyombo
7′ · -7
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DAL and PHX.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Dallas Mavericks
Finney-Smith, Doncic, McGee, Bullock, and Dinwiddie played 8.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Wood, Kleber, Doncic, Bullock, and Hardaway played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Finney-Smith, Kleber, Doncic, Bullock, and Dinwiddie played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Phoenix Suns
Paul, Booker, Bridges, Ayton, and Johnson played 15.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Booker, Payne, Lee, Bridges, and Ayton played 6.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 15 points.
Booker, Payne, Craig, Bridges, and Landale played 5.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Dallas Mavericks
Finney-Smith, Doncic, McGee, Bullock, and Hardaway played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Wood, Kleber, Green, Hardaway, and Dinwiddie played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Wood, Finney-Smith, Kleber, Doncic, and Green played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Wood, Finney-Smith, Green, Hardaway, and Dinwiddie played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Wood, Finney-Smith, Doncic, Bullock, and Dinwiddie played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Wood, Finney-Smith, Kleber, Green, and Dinwiddie played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Finney-Smith, Kleber, Green, Hardaway, and Dinwiddie played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Wood, Kleber, Doncic, Green, and Hardaway played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Wood, Finney-Smith, Doncic, Bullock, and Hardaway played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Finney-Smith, Kleber, Doncic, Bullock, and Hardaway played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Finney-Smith, Kleber, Doncic, Hardaway, and Dinwiddie played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Wood, Finney-Smith, Kleber, Doncic, and Bullock played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Finney-Smith, Doncic, Green, McGee, and Bullock played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Phoenix Suns
Paul, Lee, Okogie, Landale, and Johnson played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Paul, Lee, Bridges, Ayton, and Johnson played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Booker, Payne, Lee, Craig, and Ayton played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Paul, Booker, Bridges, Johnson, and Biyombo played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Paul, Booker, Lee, Bridges, and Ayton played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Booker, Payne, Bridges, Johnson, and Biyombo played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Paul, Booker, Payne, Bridges, and Biyombo played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Paul, Lee, Bridges, Okogie, and Ayton played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

