SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 19 October 2022

DAL105–107PHX
Is it worth watching?
Recommended

It was more exciting than 70% of NBA games since 2017

  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 22 times

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ PHX winsDAL wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when PHX leads and falls when DAL does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · DAL

Dorian Finney-Smith
Luka Doncic
Reggie Bullock Jr.
Spencer Dinwiddie
Maxi Kleber

Finney-Smith · Doncic · Bullock · Dinwiddie · Kleber

Closing lineup · PHX

Mikal Bridges
Devin Booker
Deandre Ayton
Cameron Payne
Damion Lee

Bridges · Booker · Ayton · Payne · Lee

Q1Q2Q3Q4
DAL
Dorian Finney-Smith

Dorian Finney-Smith

38′ · -10

Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic

37′ · -16

Reggie Bullock Jr.

Reggie Bullock Jr.

30′ · -11

Spencer Dinwiddie

Spencer Dinwiddie

28′ · +2

JaVale McGee

JaVale McGee

14′ · -5

Tim Hardaway Jr.

Tim Hardaway Jr.

25′ · -2

Christian Wood

Christian Wood

24′ · +9

Maxi Kleber

Maxi Kleber

26′ · +5

Josh Green

Josh Green

18′ · +18

PHX
Mikal Bridges

Mikal Bridges

41′ · +15

Devin Booker

Devin Booker

41′ · +20

Deandre Ayton

Deandre Ayton

30′ · +15

Chris Paul

Chris Paul

30′ · -9

Cameron Johnson

Cameron Johnson

27′ · -3

Cameron Payne

Cameron Payne

19′ · +15

Jock Landale

Jock Landale

10′ · -6

Torrey Craig

Torrey Craig

9′ · -7

Damion Lee

Damion Lee

20′ · -7

Josh Okogie

Josh Okogie

4′ · -8

Dario Saric

Dario Saric

2′ · -8

Bismack Biyombo

Bismack Biyombo

7′ · -7

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DAL and PHX.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Dallas Mavericks

  • Finney-Smith, Doncic, McGee, Bullock, and Dinwiddie played 8.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Wood, Kleber, Doncic, Bullock, and Hardaway played 4.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Finney-Smith, Kleber, Doncic, Bullock, and Dinwiddie played 3.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

Phoenix Suns

  • Paul, Booker, Bridges, Ayton, and Johnson played 15.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Booker, Payne, Lee, Bridges, and Ayton played 6.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 15 points.

  • Booker, Payne, Craig, Bridges, and Landale played 5.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Dallas Mavericks

  • Finney-Smith, Doncic, McGee, Bullock, and Hardaway played 3.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Wood, Kleber, Green, Hardaway, and Dinwiddie played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Wood, Finney-Smith, Kleber, Doncic, and Green played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Wood, Finney-Smith, Green, Hardaway, and Dinwiddie played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Wood, Finney-Smith, Doncic, Bullock, and Dinwiddie played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Wood, Finney-Smith, Kleber, Green, and Dinwiddie played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Finney-Smith, Kleber, Green, Hardaway, and Dinwiddie played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 9 points.

  • Wood, Kleber, Doncic, Green, and Hardaway played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Wood, Finney-Smith, Doncic, Bullock, and Hardaway played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Finney-Smith, Kleber, Doncic, Bullock, and Hardaway played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Finney-Smith, Kleber, Doncic, Hardaway, and Dinwiddie played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Wood, Finney-Smith, Kleber, Doncic, and Bullock played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Finney-Smith, Doncic, Green, McGee, and Bullock played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

Phoenix Suns

  • Paul, Lee, Okogie, Landale, and Johnson played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Paul, Lee, Bridges, Ayton, and Johnson played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Booker, Payne, Lee, Craig, and Ayton played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Paul, Booker, Bridges, Johnson, and Biyombo played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Paul, Booker, Lee, Bridges, and Ayton played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Booker, Payne, Bridges, Johnson, and Biyombo played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Paul, Booker, Payne, Bridges, and Biyombo played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Paul, Lee, Bridges, Okogie, and Ayton played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
17.071
100% of capacity
Mortgage Matchup Center · Phoenix
Scoring
212
combined points
17.4 below the season average (229.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

19 calls reviewed1 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Personal · 01:21.7
Cameron Payne → Luka Doncic
Payne (PHX) avoids making contact with Doncic's (DAL) arm at the end of his drive. Booker's (PHX) arms are in a vertical position when Doncic extends his arms towards Booker and incidental contact occurs during the pass.