SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 4 November 2022

POR108–106PHX
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 88% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 22 times

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ PHX winsPOR wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when PHX leads and falls when POR does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · POR

Jerami Grant
Josh Hart
Justise Winslow
Jusuf Nurkic
Keon Johnson

Grant · Hart · Winslow · Nurkic · Johnson

Closing lineup · PHX

Devin Booker
Mikal Bridges
Deandre Ayton
Torrey Craig
Bismack Biyombo

Booker · Bridges · Ayton · Craig · Biyombo

Q1Q2Q3Q4
POR
Jerami Grant

Jerami Grant

39′ · -2

Josh Hart

Josh Hart

38′ · 0

Justise Winslow

Justise Winslow

32′ · +6

Shaedon Sharpe

Shaedon Sharpe

28′ · -10

Jusuf Nurkic

Jusuf Nurkic

25′ · -3

Keon Johnson

Keon Johnson

23′ · +2

Nassir Little

Nassir Little

23′ · +10

Drew Eubanks

Drew Eubanks

23′ · +3

Jabari Walker

Jabari Walker

9′ · +4

PHX
Devin Booker

Devin Booker

38′ · +3

Mikal Bridges

Mikal Bridges

38′ · +7

Chris Paul

Chris Paul

34′ · +4

Deandre Ayton

Deandre Ayton

30′ · +3

Cameron Johnson

Cameron Johnson

5′ · +8

Torrey Craig

Torrey Craig

23′ · -4

Landry Shamet

Landry Shamet

19′ · -5

Jock Landale

Jock Landale

15′ · +3

Damion Lee

Damion Lee

20′ · -6

Josh Okogie

Josh Okogie

5′ · -7

Dario Saric

Dario Saric

9′ · -8

Bismack Biyombo

Bismack Biyombo

4′ · -8

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. POR and PHX.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Portland Trail Blazers

  • Winslow, Hart, Sharpe, Grant, and Nurkic played 10.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Winslow, Hart, Eubanks, Little, and Grant played 6.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Hart, Johnson, Sharpe, Grant, and Nurkic played 6.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

Phoenix Suns

  • Paul, Booker, Craig, Bridges, and Ayton played 17.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Paul, Booker, Bridges, Ayton, and Johnson played 5.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Booker, Craig, Bridges, Shamet, and Landale played 5.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Portland Trail Blazers

  • Winslow, Hart, Johnson, Grant, and Nurkic played 4.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Winslow, Eubanks, Little, Sharpe, and Walker played 4.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Hart, Eubanks, Little, Johnson, and Grant played 3.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Hart, Eubanks, Johnson, Sharpe, and Grant played 3.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Winslow, Eubanks, Little, Johnson, and Walker played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Winslow, Hart, Little, Grant, and Nurkic played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Eubanks, Little, Johnson, Sharpe, and Grant played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Eubanks, Little, Johnson, Sharpe, and Walker played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Winslow, Hart, Little, Walker, and Nurkic played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

Phoenix Suns

  • Paul, Booker, Lee, Bridges, and Ayton played 4.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Booker, Lee, Shamet, Landale, and Saric played 3.4 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Lee, Okogie, Shamet, Landale, and Saric played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Paul, Lee, Bridges, Shamet, and Ayton played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Paul, Lee, Bridges, Shamet, and Landale played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Booker, Lee, Okogie, Shamet, and Landale played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Paul, Lee, Shamet, Biyombo, and Saric played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Lee, Okogie, Shamet, Biyombo, and Saric played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
17.071
100% of capacity
Mortgage Matchup Center · Phoenix
Scoring
214
combined points
15.4 below the season average (229.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

34 calls reviewed3 errors admitted by the NBA
Turnover: Traveling · 00:00.9
Jerami Grant → Suns
Grant (POR) gathers the ball with one hand and then takes three steps before releasing the shot attempt.
Turnover: Traveling · 00:01.1
Mikal Bridges → Trail Blazers
Bridges (PHX) brings two hands to the ball and gathers it on his right foot. He then comes down on two feet for his first step and can choose either foot as his pivot foot. He establishes his left foot as his pivot by stepping with his right and then leaves the ground and releases his shot attempt.
Foul: Defense 3 Second · 00:13.1
Keon Johnson → Suns
Johnson (POR) has a foot on the lane line for more than three seconds without imminently actively guarding an opponent.