Win probability changed during the game. · 4 November 2022
It was more exciting than 88% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 22 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when PHX leads and falls when POR does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · POR
Grant · Hart · Winslow · Nurkic · Johnson
Closing lineup · PHX
Booker · Bridges · Ayton · Craig · Biyombo
Jerami Grant
39′ · -2
Josh Hart
38′ · 0
Justise Winslow
32′ · +6
Shaedon Sharpe
28′ · -10
Jusuf Nurkic
25′ · -3
Keon Johnson
23′ · +2
Nassir Little
23′ · +10
Drew Eubanks
23′ · +3
Jabari Walker
9′ · +4
Devin Booker
38′ · +3
Mikal Bridges
38′ · +7
Chris Paul
34′ · +4
Deandre Ayton
30′ · +3
Cameron Johnson
5′ · +8
Torrey Craig
23′ · -4
Landry Shamet
19′ · -5
Jock Landale
15′ · +3
Damion Lee
20′ · -6
Josh Okogie
5′ · -7
Dario Saric
9′ · -8
Bismack Biyombo
4′ · -8
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. POR and PHX.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Portland Trail Blazers
Winslow, Hart, Sharpe, Grant, and Nurkic played 10.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Winslow, Hart, Eubanks, Little, and Grant played 6.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Hart, Johnson, Sharpe, Grant, and Nurkic played 6.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Phoenix Suns
Paul, Booker, Craig, Bridges, and Ayton played 17.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Paul, Booker, Bridges, Ayton, and Johnson played 5.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Booker, Craig, Bridges, Shamet, and Landale played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Portland Trail Blazers
Winslow, Hart, Johnson, Grant, and Nurkic played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Winslow, Eubanks, Little, Sharpe, and Walker played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Hart, Eubanks, Little, Johnson, and Grant played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Hart, Eubanks, Johnson, Sharpe, and Grant played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Winslow, Eubanks, Little, Johnson, and Walker played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Winslow, Hart, Little, Grant, and Nurkic played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Eubanks, Little, Johnson, Sharpe, and Grant played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Eubanks, Little, Johnson, Sharpe, and Walker played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Winslow, Hart, Little, Walker, and Nurkic played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Phoenix Suns
Paul, Booker, Lee, Bridges, and Ayton played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Booker, Lee, Shamet, Landale, and Saric played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Lee, Okogie, Shamet, Landale, and Saric played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Paul, Lee, Bridges, Shamet, and Ayton played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Paul, Lee, Bridges, Shamet, and Landale played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Booker, Lee, Okogie, Shamet, and Landale played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Paul, Lee, Shamet, Biyombo, and Saric played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Lee, Okogie, Shamet, Biyombo, and Saric played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

