Win probability changed during the game. · 18 November 2022
It was more exciting than 81% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when CHI leads and falls when ORL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · ORL
Suggs · Carter · Bol · Okeke · Harris
Closing lineup · CHI
DeRozan · Vucevic · Dosunmu · Caruso · Green
Jalen Suggs
35′ · -10
Wendell Carter Jr.
34′ · +13
Franz Wagner
33′ · +11
Bol Bol
31′ · +1
Chuma Okeke
29′ · -12
Mo Bamba
24′ · -3
Terrence Ross
23′ · +8
Gary Harris
24′ · +1
Admiral Schofield
7′ · -4
DeMar DeRozan
44′ · +13
Nikola Vucevic
33′ · +9
Patrick Williams
33′ · +4
Zach LaVine
25′ · -19
Ayo Dosunmu
24′ · -5
Alex Caruso
23′ · -8
Derrick Jones Jr.
5′ · -10
Goran Dragic
16′ · +4
Andre Drummond
15′ · -10
Coby White
4′ · 0
Javonte Green
18′ · +17
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ORL and CHI.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Orlando Magic
Carter, Bol, Okeke, Wagner, and Suggs played 17.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Bamba, Carter, Wagner, Ross, and Harris played 5.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 15 points.
Bamba, Carter, Suggs, Ross, and Harris played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Chicago Bulls
Williams, Dosunmu, DeRozan, Vucevic, and LaVine played 9.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Green, Williams, Dragic, DeRozan, and Drummond played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
White, Williams, Dosunmu, DeRozan, and Vucevic played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See every lineup of the game
Orlando Magic
Carter, Schofield, Wagner, Ross, and Harris played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Bamba, Bol, Okeke, Suggs, and Harris played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Bamba, Bol, Okeke, Suggs, and Ross played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Bamba, Okeke, Wagner, Ross, and Harris played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Carter, Bol, Wagner, Ross, and Harris played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Bamba, Bol, Okeke, Wagner, and Suggs played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Bamba, Bol, Okeke, Schofield, and Suggs played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Bamba, Bol, Schofield, Suggs, and Ross played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Bamba, Schofield, Suggs, Ross, and Harris played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Bamba, Okeke, Suggs, Ross, and Harris played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Chicago Bulls
Caruso, Williams, DeRozan, Vucevic, and LaVine played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Caruso, Green, Dosunmu, DeRozan, and Vucevic played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Green, Williams, DeRozan, Drummond, and LaVine played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Jones, Caruso, Dragic, Drummond, and LaVine played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
Green, Williams, Dragic, DeRozan, and Vucevic played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Caruso, Green, Dragic, DeRozan, and Vucevic played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Caruso, Williams, Dosunmu, DeRozan, and Vucevic played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Caruso, Dosunmu, DeRozan, Vucevic, and LaVine played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Jones, Caruso, Dragic, DeRozan, and Drummond played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Caruso, Williams, Dragic, Drummond, and LaVine played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Caruso, Green, DeRozan, Vucevic, and LaVine played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Williams, Dosunmu, Dragic, DeRozan, and Vucevic played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

