Win probability changed during the game. · 18 December 2022
It was more exciting than 84% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 22 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when LAL leads and falls when WAS does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · WAS
Kuzma · Porzingis · Beal · Avdija · Goodwin
Closing lineup · LAL
James · Reaves · Walker · Bryant · Christie
Kyle Kuzma
40′ · -4
Kristaps Porzingis
38′ · +5
Bradley Beal
32′ · +1
Monte Morris
29′ · -12
Deni Avdija
21′ · +2
Jordan Goodwin
19′ · +10
Corey Kispert
17′ · -14
Will Barton
20′ · -2
Daniel Gafford
21′ · +11
Taj Gibson
4′ · -7
LeBron James
37′ · +10
Austin Reaves
34′ · +15
Lonnie Walker IV
34′ · -6
Thomas Bryant
33′ · 0
Dennis Schroder
30′ · +7
Russell Westbrook
23′ · -5
Max Christie
24′ · -2
Troy Brown Jr.
10′ · -12
Damian Jones
17′ · +3
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. WAS and LAL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Washington Wizards
Kuzma, Morris, Avdija, Beal, and Porzingis played 10.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Kuzma, Morris, Gafford, Kispert, and Barton played 6.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Kuzma, Morris, Gafford, Beal, and Porzingis played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Los Angeles Lakers
Bryant, Walker, Reaves, Schroder, and James played 11.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Jones, Brown, Walker, Christie, and Westbrook played 7.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Bryant, Walker, Reaves, Westbrook, and James played 6.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Washington Wizards
Kuzma, Morris, Kispert, Gibson, and Barton played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Kuzma, Gafford, Goodwin, Barton, and Porzingis played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
Avdija, Goodwin, Beal, Barton, and Porzingis played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Kuzma, Gafford, Goodwin, Beal, and Porzingis played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Gafford, Avdija, Goodwin, Beal, and Porzingis played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Kuzma, Avdija, Goodwin, Beal, and Porzingis played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Kuzma, Morris, Kispert, Beal, and Porzingis played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Kuzma, Kispert, Goodwin, Beal, and Porzingis played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Kuzma, Morris, Kispert, Barton, and Porzingis played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Avdija, Kispert, Goodwin, Barton, and Porzingis played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Los Angeles Lakers
Bryant, Reaves, Christie, Schroder, and James played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Jones, Reaves, Christie, Schroder, and James played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Jones, Walker, Reaves, Westbrook, and Schroder played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Bryant, Walker, Reaves, Christie, and James played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Bryant, Reaves, Westbrook, Schroder, and James played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Jones, Brown, Christie, Schroder, and James played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Bryant, Walker, Westbrook, Schroder, and James played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Bryant, Walker, Christie, Schroder, and James played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Jones, Bryant, Walker, Christie, and Westbrook played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

