SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 18 December 2022

WAS117–119LAL
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 84% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 22 times

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ LAL winsWAS wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when LAL leads and falls when WAS does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · WAS

Kyle Kuzma
Kristaps Porzingis
Bradley Beal
Deni Avdija
Jordan Goodwin

Kuzma · Porzingis · Beal · Avdija · Goodwin

Closing lineup · LAL

LeBron James
Austin Reaves
Lonnie Walker IV
Thomas Bryant
Max Christie

James · Reaves · Walker · Bryant · Christie

Q1Q2Q3Q4
WAS
Kyle Kuzma

Kyle Kuzma

40′ · -4

Kristaps Porzingis

Kristaps Porzingis

38′ · +5

Bradley Beal

Bradley Beal

32′ · +1

Monte Morris

Monte Morris

29′ · -12

Deni Avdija

Deni Avdija

21′ · +2

Jordan Goodwin

Jordan Goodwin

19′ · +10

Corey Kispert

Corey Kispert

17′ · -14

Will Barton

Will Barton

20′ · -2

Daniel Gafford

Daniel Gafford

21′ · +11

Taj Gibson

Taj Gibson

4′ · -7

LAL
LeBron James

LeBron James

37′ · +10

Austin Reaves

Austin Reaves

34′ · +15

Lonnie Walker IV

Lonnie Walker IV

34′ · -6

Thomas Bryant

Thomas Bryant

33′ · 0

Dennis Schroder

Dennis Schroder

30′ · +7

Russell Westbrook

Russell Westbrook

23′ · -5

Max Christie

Max Christie

24′ · -2

Troy Brown Jr.

Troy Brown Jr.

10′ · -12

Damian Jones

Damian Jones

17′ · +3

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. WAS and LAL.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Washington Wizards

  • Kuzma, Morris, Avdija, Beal, and Porzingis played 10.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Kuzma, Morris, Gafford, Kispert, and Barton played 6.6 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Kuzma, Morris, Gafford, Beal, and Porzingis played 4.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

Los Angeles Lakers

  • Bryant, Walker, Reaves, Schroder, and James played 11.4 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Jones, Brown, Walker, Christie, and Westbrook played 7.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Bryant, Walker, Reaves, Westbrook, and James played 6.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Washington Wizards

  • Kuzma, Morris, Kispert, Gibson, and Barton played 3.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Kuzma, Gafford, Goodwin, Barton, and Porzingis played 3.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 10 points.

  • Avdija, Goodwin, Beal, Barton, and Porzingis played 3.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Kuzma, Gafford, Goodwin, Beal, and Porzingis played 3.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Gafford, Avdija, Goodwin, Beal, and Porzingis played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Kuzma, Avdija, Goodwin, Beal, and Porzingis played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Kuzma, Morris, Kispert, Beal, and Porzingis played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Kuzma, Kispert, Goodwin, Beal, and Porzingis played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Kuzma, Morris, Kispert, Barton, and Porzingis played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Avdija, Kispert, Goodwin, Barton, and Porzingis played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

Los Angeles Lakers

  • Bryant, Reaves, Christie, Schroder, and James played 5.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Jones, Reaves, Christie, Schroder, and James played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 9 points.

  • Jones, Walker, Reaves, Westbrook, and Schroder played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Bryant, Walker, Reaves, Christie, and James played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Bryant, Reaves, Westbrook, Schroder, and James played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Jones, Brown, Christie, Schroder, and James played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Bryant, Walker, Westbrook, Schroder, and James played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Bryant, Walker, Christie, Schroder, and James played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Jones, Bryant, Walker, Christie, and Westbrook played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
18.153
95.6% of capacity
Crypto.com Arena · Los Angeles
Scoring
236
combined points
6.6 above the season average (229.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

14 calls reviewed0 no admitted errors