SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 2 January 2023

ATL141–143GSW
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 98% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 27 times

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ GSW winsATL wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when GSW leads and falls when ATL does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · ATL

Dejounte Murray
Trae Young
John Collins
De'Andre Hunter
Bogdan Bogdanovic

Murray · Young · Collins · Hunter · Bogdanovic

Closing lineup · GSW

Klay Thompson
Draymond Green
Donte DiVincenzo
Kevon Looney
Anthony Lamb

Thompson · Green · DiVincenzo · Looney · Lamb

Q1Q2Q3Q4OT1OT2
ATL
Dejounte Murray

Dejounte Murray

51′ · 0

Trae Young

Trae Young

44′ · -8

John Collins

John Collins

40′ · -2

Onyeka Okongwu

Onyeka Okongwu

38′ · +3

De'Andre Hunter

De'Andre Hunter

38′ · -3

Bogdan Bogdanovic

Bogdan Bogdanovic

43′ · +6

Justin Holiday

Justin Holiday

5′ · -10

Aaron Holiday

Aaron Holiday

16′ · +6

AJ Griffin

AJ Griffin

15′ · -2

Jalen Johnson

Jalen Johnson

0′ · 0

GSW
Klay Thompson

Klay Thompson

46′ · +13

Draymond Green

Draymond Green

45′ · +9

Jordan Poole

Jordan Poole

45′ · +5

Donte DiVincenzo

Donte DiVincenzo

44′ · +7

Kevon Looney

Kevon Looney

32′ · -20

Anthony Lamb

Anthony Lamb

33′ · +1

Ty Jerome

Ty Jerome

22′ · +2

Moses Moody

Moses Moody

12′ · -6

Patrick Baldwin Jr.

Patrick Baldwin Jr.

11′ · -3

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ATL and GSW.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Atlanta Hawks

  • Murray, Collins, Young, Hunter, and Okongwu played 12.1 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Murray, Collins, Young, Okongwu, and Bogdanovic played 7.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Murray, Collins, Holiday, Griffin, and Bogdanovic played 6.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

Golden State Warriors

  • Looney, DiVincenzo, Poole, Thompson, and Green played 18.6 minutes together.

  • DiVincenzo, Poole, Lamb, Thompson, and Green played 14.9 minutes together.

  • Looney, DiVincenzo, Jerome, Lamb, and Thompson played 5.0 minutes together.

The plus-minus of each Golden State Warriors lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.

▸See every lineup of the game

Atlanta Hawks

  • Murray, Collins, Young, Hunter, and Bogdanovic played 6.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Murray, Young, Hunter, Okongwu, and Bogdanovic played 6.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Holiday, Young, Okongwu, Holiday, and Bogdanovic played 3.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Murray, Collins, Hunter, Griffin, and Bogdanovic played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Murray, Holiday, Hunter, Okongwu, and Bogdanovic played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Murray, Collins, Young, Hunter, and Griffin played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Murray, Hunter, Okongwu, Griffin, and Bogdanovic played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Holiday, Young, Hunter, Okongwu, and Bogdanovic played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Collins, Young, Hunter, Griffin, and Bogdanovic played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

Golden State Warriors

  • Jerome, Poole, Lamb, Baldwin, and Green played 4.2 minutes together.

  • Looney, Jerome, Lamb, Moody, and Thompson played 4.2 minutes together.

  • Jerome, Poole, Moody, Baldwin, and Green played 4.0 minutes together.

  • Looney, DiVincenzo, Jerome, Lamb, and Moody played 2.3 minutes together.

  • Looney, Jerome, Poole, Moody, and Baldwin played 1.2 minutes together.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
18.064
100% of capacity
Chase Center · San Francisco
Scoring
284
combined points
54.6 above the season average (229.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

77 calls reviewed6 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Shooting · 00:13.8
Bogdan Bogdanovic → Jordan Poole
Bogdanovic (ATL) moves laterally into Poole's (GSW) path and initiates body contact that causes Poole to lose control of the ball after his gather.
Foul: Personal · 00:21.4
Jordan Poole → Trae Young
Poole (GSW) turns into Young's (ATL) path and delivers contact that affects Young's SQBR. Additionally - the contact occurs prior to the start of Young's upward shooting motion.
Foul: Personal · 00:38.0
John Collins → Anthony Lamb
Collins (ATL) jumps forward into Lamb (GSW) and initiates body contact that alters Lamb's body trajectory as he elevates, subsequently affecting Lamb's SQBR as he passes.
Turnover: Traveling · 00:50.5
Klay Thompson → Hawks
Thompson (GSW) splits his feet at the start of his dribble.