Win probability changed during the game. · 2 January 2023
It was more exciting than 98% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 27 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when GSW leads and falls when ATL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · ATL
Murray · Young · Collins · Hunter · Bogdanovic
Closing lineup · GSW
Thompson · Green · DiVincenzo · Looney · Lamb
Dejounte Murray
51′ · 0
Trae Young
44′ · -8
John Collins
40′ · -2
Onyeka Okongwu
38′ · +3
De'Andre Hunter
38′ · -3
Bogdan Bogdanovic
43′ · +6
Justin Holiday
5′ · -10
Aaron Holiday
16′ · +6
AJ Griffin
15′ · -2
Jalen Johnson
0′ · 0
Klay Thompson
46′ · +13
Draymond Green
45′ · +9
Jordan Poole
45′ · +5
Donte DiVincenzo
44′ · +7
Kevon Looney
32′ · -20
Anthony Lamb
33′ · +1
Ty Jerome
22′ · +2
Moses Moody
12′ · -6
Patrick Baldwin Jr.
11′ · -3
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ATL and GSW.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Atlanta Hawks
Murray, Collins, Young, Hunter, and Okongwu played 12.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Murray, Collins, Young, Okongwu, and Bogdanovic played 7.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Murray, Collins, Holiday, Griffin, and Bogdanovic played 6.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Golden State Warriors
Looney, DiVincenzo, Poole, Thompson, and Green played 18.6 minutes together.
DiVincenzo, Poole, Lamb, Thompson, and Green played 14.9 minutes together.
Looney, DiVincenzo, Jerome, Lamb, and Thompson played 5.0 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Golden State Warriors lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
▸See every lineup of the game
Atlanta Hawks
Murray, Collins, Young, Hunter, and Bogdanovic played 6.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Murray, Young, Hunter, Okongwu, and Bogdanovic played 6.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Holiday, Young, Okongwu, Holiday, and Bogdanovic played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Murray, Collins, Hunter, Griffin, and Bogdanovic played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Murray, Holiday, Hunter, Okongwu, and Bogdanovic played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Murray, Collins, Young, Hunter, and Griffin played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Murray, Hunter, Okongwu, Griffin, and Bogdanovic played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Holiday, Young, Hunter, Okongwu, and Bogdanovic played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Collins, Young, Hunter, Griffin, and Bogdanovic played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Golden State Warriors
Jerome, Poole, Lamb, Baldwin, and Green played 4.2 minutes together.
Looney, Jerome, Lamb, Moody, and Thompson played 4.2 minutes together.
Jerome, Poole, Moody, Baldwin, and Green played 4.0 minutes together.
Looney, DiVincenzo, Jerome, Lamb, and Moody played 2.3 minutes together.
Looney, Jerome, Poole, Moody, and Baldwin played 1.2 minutes together.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

