Win probability changed during the game. · 3 January 2023
It was more exciting than 92% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when UTA leads and falls when SAC does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · SAC
Sabonis · Fox · Barnes · Murray · Huerter
Closing lineup · UTA
Markkanen · Clarkson · Conley · Olynyk · Vanderbilt
Domantas Sabonis
39′ · +21
De'Aaron Fox
38′ · -6
Harrison Barnes
37′ · +4
Keegan Murray
37′ · +19
Kevin Huerter
32′ · +18
Davion Mitchell
18′ · -14
Malik Monk
15′ · -6
Richaun Holmes
9′ · -13
Trey Lyles
9′ · -12
KZ Okpala
7′ · -1
Lauri Markkanen
36′ · -6
Jordan Clarkson
35′ · -15
Mike Conley
33′ · +11
Kelly Olynyk
28′ · -5
Jarred Vanderbilt
25′ · +2
Walker Kessler
17′ · -5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
15′ · -13
Rudy Gay
13′ · +3
Malik Beasley
31′ · +12
Ochai Agbaji
7′ · +6
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAC and UTA.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Sacramento Kings
Sabonis, Fox, Huerter, Murray, and Barnes played 23.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 12 points.
Sabonis, Huerter, Mitchell, Murray, and Barnes played 7.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Holmes, Lyles, Fox, Monk, and Mitchell played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Utah Jazz
Markkanen, Vanderbilt, Conley, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 13.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Beasley, Markkanen, Vanderbilt, Conley, and Clarkson played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Beasley, Agbaji, Kessler, Gay, and Conley played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Sacramento Kings
Holmes, Lyles, Fox, Monk, and Okpala played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Sabonis, Monk, Mitchell, Murray, and Barnes played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Sabonis, Fox, Monk, Okpala, and Murray played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Sabonis, Fox, Monk, Mitchell, and Barnes played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Sabonis, Fox, Huerter, Okpala, and Murray played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Utah Jazz
Beasley, Kessler, Gay, Conley, and Clarkson played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Beasley, Markkanen, Conley, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Beasley, Markkanen, Kessler, Gay, and Conley played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Beasley, Markkanen, Alexander-Walker, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Beasley, Vanderbilt, Alexander-Walker, Agbaji, and Olynyk played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Markkanen, Alexander-Walker, Kessler, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Beasley, Markkanen, Vanderbilt, Alexander-Walker, and Olynyk played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Beasley, Markkanen, Alexander-Walker, Kessler, and Gay played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Beasley, Markkanen, Vanderbilt, Alexander-Walker, and Clarkson played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Beasley, Kessler, Conley, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Markkanen, Alexander-Walker, Kessler, Gay, and Clarkson played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Beasley, Vanderbilt, Agbaji, Conley, and Olynyk played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

