Win probability changed during the game. · 8 February 2023
The ESPN data for this game contradicts the official result, so it cannot be rated
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
The last point of this curve falls on HOU's side, but SAC won 130-128. It is an ESPN error at the close of the game: the curve is shown as it is and no conclusion is drawn from it.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when HOU leads and falls when SAC does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · SAC
Fox · Barnes · Murray · Sabonis · Monk
Closing lineup · HOU
Green · Martin · Sengun · Smith · Gordon
De'Aaron Fox
38′ · -4
Harrison Barnes
33′ · +3
Keegan Murray
32′ · +7
Domantas Sabonis
32′ · +4
Kevin Huerter
20′ · -5
Terence Davis
15′ · -4
Davion Mitchell
12′ · +5
Malik Monk
29′ · +5
Trey Lyles
16′ · -5
Chimezie Metu
12′ · +4
Jalen Green
37′ · +1
KJ Martin
35′ · +4
Alperen Sengun
35′ · -3
Jabari Smith Jr.
32′ · 0
Eric Gordon
31′ · -2
Jae'Sean Tate
25′ · -5
Tari Eason
20′ · -5
Bruno Fernando
13′ · +1
Josh Christopher
12′ · -1
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAC and HOU.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Sacramento Kings
Sabonis, Fox, Huerter, Murray, and Barnes played 16.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Sabonis, Fox, Monk, Murray, and Barnes played 8.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Lyles, Monk, Metu, Davis, and Mitchell played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Houston Rockets
Green, Martin, Sengun, Smith, and Gordon played 18.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Green, Martin, Tate, Sengun, and Smith played 7.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Fernando, Tate, Christopher, Eason, and Gordon played 7.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See every lineup of the game
Sacramento Kings
Lyles, Fox, Monk, Davis, and Barnes played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Lyles, Fox, Monk, Metu, and Barnes played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Lyles, Fox, Monk, Metu, and Davis played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Sabonis, Huerter, Davis, Mitchell, and Murray played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Fox, Monk, Metu, Davis, and Murray played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Sabonis, Monk, Mitchell, Murray, and Barnes played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Lyles, Fox, Monk, Metu, and Mitchell played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Lyles, Sabonis, Monk, Davis, and Mitchell played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Sabonis, Monk, Huerter, Mitchell, and Murray played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Houston Rockets
Green, Martin, Tate, Sengun, and Eason played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Fernando, Green, Martin, Tate, and Eason played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Fernando, Christopher, Smith, Eason, and Gordon played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Christopher, Sengun, Smith, Eason, and Gordon played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.
