Win probability changed during the game. · 23 February 2023
It was more exciting than 92% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 16 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when ORL leads and falls when DET does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · DET
Hayes · Bogdanovic · Stewart · Burks · Livers
Closing lineup · ORL
Banchero · Carter · Wagner · Fultz · Harris
Killian Hayes
32′ · -2
Jaden Ivey
31′ · -13
Bojan Bogdanovic
29′ · -14
Isaiah Stewart
27′ · -14
Jalen Duren
23′ · -16
James Wiseman
24′ · +16
Alec Burks
19′ · +13
Isaiah Livers
22′ · +4
Hamidou Diallo
20′ · +15
Cory Joseph
15′ · +1
Paolo Banchero
32′ · +9
Wendell Carter Jr.
32′ · +3
Franz Wagner
31′ · +11
Markelle Fultz
30′ · +17
Gary Harris
28′ · +6
Jonathan Isaac
16′ · -7
Jalen Suggs
21′ · -6
Moritz Wagner
16′ · -1
Cole Anthony
18′ · -15
Bol Bol
16′ · -7
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DET and ORL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Detroit Pistons
Hayes, Stewart, Ivey, Duren, and Bogdanovic played 16.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 16 points.
Diallo, Wiseman, Livers, Burks, and Joseph played 11.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Wiseman, Hayes, Stewart, Ivey, and Bogdanovic played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Orlando Magic
Fultz, Carter, Wagner, Banchero, and Harris played 20.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 16 points.
Wagner, Bol, Anthony, Wagner, and Suggs played 7.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Isaac, Wagner, Bol, Anthony, and Suggs played 6.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Detroit Pistons
Hayes, Stewart, Livers, Ivey, and Duren played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Diallo, Wiseman, Livers, Ivey, and Joseph played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Diallo, Hayes, Duren, Burks, and Bogdanovic played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Hayes, Stewart, Livers, Ivey, and Bogdanovic played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Diallo, Wiseman, Hayes, Livers, and Burks played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Diallo, Wiseman, Hayes, Burks, and Bogdanovic played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Wiseman, Stewart, Ivey, Burks, and Bogdanovic played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Orlando Magic
Fultz, Isaac, Carter, Banchero, and Harris played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Fultz, Isaac, Carter, Suggs, and Banchero played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Carter, Bol, Anthony, Wagner, and Harris played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Fultz, Isaac, Wagner, Suggs, and Banchero played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Isaac, Wagner, Anthony, Suggs, and Banchero played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

