Win probability changed during the game. · 25 February 2023
It was more exciting than 88% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when PHI leads and falls when BOS does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · BOS
Brown · Tatum · Horford · Smart · White
Closing lineup · PHI
Harden · Embiid · Harris · Tucker · Melton
Jaylen Brown
37′ · -6
Jayson Tatum
36′ · -6
Al Horford
32′ · -12
Robert Williams III
31′ · +10
Marcus Smart
26′ · -22
Derrick White
25′ · +25
Grant Williams
29′ · +9
Malcolm Brogdon
21′ · +18
Sam Hauser
2′ · -1
James Harden
41′ · +9
Joel Embiid
40′ · +8
Tobias Harris
38′ · +18
P.J. Tucker
38′ · +21
De'Anthony Melton
25′ · +3
Tyrese Maxey
25′ · -11
Jalen McDaniels
15′ · -23
Georges Niang
13′ · -22
Paul Reed
5′ · -14
Shake Milton
2′ · -4
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. BOS and PHI.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Boston Celtics
Brown, Tatum, Williams, Horford, and Smart played 12.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Brown, Brogdon, White, Williams, and Williams played 9.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
Brown, Tatum, Williams, Horford, and Smart played 8.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
Philadelphia 76ers
Melton, Tucker, Harden, Harris, and Embiid played 22.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Maxey, Tucker, Harden, Harris, and Embiid played 9.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 14 points.
Niang, McDaniels, Maxey, Reed, and Harden played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 14 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Boston Celtics
Brogdon, Tatum, White, Williams, and Williams played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Brown, Tatum, White, Williams, and Horford played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Brogdon, Tatum, White, Williams, and Horford played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Brogdon, Tatum, Williams, Horford, and Smart played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Tatum, White, Williams, Horford, and Smart played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Brown, Brogdon, White, Williams, and Hauser played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Brown, Tatum, White, Horford, and Smart played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Philadelphia 76ers
Niang, McDaniels, Maxey, Harris, and Embiid played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
McDaniels, Maxey, Tucker, Harden, and Harris played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Niang, Milton, McDaniels, Maxey, and Embiid played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Niang, McDaniels, Maxey, Tucker, and Harden played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

