Win probability changed during the game. · 1 May 2023
It was more exciting than 76% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 24 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when BOS leads and falls when PHI does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · PHI
Harris · Harden · Reed · Tucker · Melton
Closing lineup · BOS
Tatum · Brown · Smart · Horford · Brogdon
Tobias Harris
42′ · 0
James Harden
39′ · +8
Paul Reed
37′ · +8
P.J. Tucker
37′ · +6
Tyrese Maxey
36′ · +12
De'Anthony Melton
25′ · -8
Jalen McDaniels
11′ · -8
Georges Niang
13′ · +2
Jayson Tatum
44′ · -6
Jaylen Brown
42′ · -2
Marcus Smart
35′ · -7
Al Horford
30′ · -17
Derrick White
27′ · -15
Malcolm Brogdon
34′ · +14
Robert Williams III
20′ · +8
Grant Williams
4′ · +2
Sam Hauser
5′ · +3
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. PHI and BOS.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Philadelphia 76ers
Maxey, Reed, Tucker, Harden, and Harris played 18.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Niang, Melton, Maxey, Reed, and Harris played 6.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
McDaniels, Maxey, Tucker, Harden, and Harris played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Boston Celtics
Brown, Tatum, White, Horford, and Smart played 14.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 18 points.
Brown, Brogdon, Tatum, Horford, and Smart played 11.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Brown, Brogdon, Tatum, Williams, and Smart played 6.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Philadelphia 76ers
Melton, Reed, Tucker, Harden, and Harris played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Melton, McDaniels, Tucker, Harden, and Harris played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Melton, Maxey, Reed, Tucker, and Harden played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Niang, Melton, McDaniels, Reed, and Harden played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Melton, Maxey, Reed, Harden, and Harris played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Niang, Melton, Reed, Tucker, and Harden played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Niang, Melton, Maxey, Tucker, and Harris played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Boston Celtics
Brown, Brogdon, Tatum, White, and Williams played 6.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Brogdon, Tatum, White, Hauser, and Horford played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Brown, Brogdon, White, Williams, and Williams played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Brown, Brogdon, Williams, Williams, and Smart played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Brogdon, Tatum, White, Williams, and Horford played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Brogdon, Tatum, Williams, Hauser, and Smart played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

