SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 1 May 2023

PHI119–115BOS
Is it worth watching?
Recommended

It was more exciting than 76% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 24 times

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ BOS winsPHI wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when BOS leads and falls when PHI does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · PHI

Tobias Harris
James Harden
Paul Reed
P.J. Tucker
De'Anthony Melton

Harris · Harden · Reed · Tucker · Melton

Closing lineup · BOS

Jayson Tatum
Jaylen Brown
Marcus Smart
Al Horford
Malcolm Brogdon

Tatum · Brown · Smart · Horford · Brogdon

Q1Q2Q3Q4
PHI
Tobias Harris

Tobias Harris

42′ · 0

James Harden

James Harden

39′ · +8

Paul Reed

Paul Reed

37′ · +8

P.J. Tucker

P.J. Tucker

37′ · +6

Tyrese Maxey

Tyrese Maxey

36′ · +12

De'Anthony Melton

De'Anthony Melton

25′ · -8

Jalen McDaniels

Jalen McDaniels

11′ · -8

Georges Niang

Georges Niang

13′ · +2

BOS
Jayson Tatum

Jayson Tatum

44′ · -6

Jaylen Brown

Jaylen Brown

42′ · -2

Marcus Smart

Marcus Smart

35′ · -7

Al Horford

Al Horford

30′ · -17

Derrick White

Derrick White

27′ · -15

Malcolm Brogdon

Malcolm Brogdon

34′ · +14

Robert Williams III

Robert Williams III

20′ · +8

Grant Williams

Grant Williams

4′ · +2

Sam Hauser

Sam Hauser

5′ · +3

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. PHI and BOS.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Philadelphia 76ers

  • Maxey, Reed, Tucker, Harden, and Harris played 18.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Niang, Melton, Maxey, Reed, and Harris played 6.8 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • McDaniels, Maxey, Tucker, Harden, and Harris played 5.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

Boston Celtics

  • Brown, Tatum, White, Horford, and Smart played 14.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 18 points.

  • Brown, Brogdon, Tatum, Horford, and Smart played 11.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Brown, Brogdon, Tatum, Williams, and Smart played 6.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Philadelphia 76ers

  • Melton, Reed, Tucker, Harden, and Harris played 4.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Melton, McDaniels, Tucker, Harden, and Harris played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Melton, Maxey, Reed, Tucker, and Harden played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Niang, Melton, McDaniels, Reed, and Harden played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Melton, Maxey, Reed, Harden, and Harris played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Niang, Melton, Reed, Tucker, and Harden played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Niang, Melton, Maxey, Tucker, and Harris played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

Boston Celtics

  • Brown, Brogdon, Tatum, White, and Williams played 6.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Brogdon, Tatum, White, Hauser, and Horford played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Brown, Brogdon, White, Williams, and Williams played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Brown, Brogdon, Williams, Williams, and Smart played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Brogdon, Tatum, White, Williams, and Horford played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Brogdon, Tatum, Williams, Hauser, and Smart played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
19.156
102.9% of capacity
TD Garden · Boston
Series
Game 1
Conference semifinals
BOS 4-3
Scoring
234
combined points
14.8 above the season average (219.2)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

25 calls reviewed3 errors admitted by the NBA
Turnover: 3 Second Violation · 00:39.2
Jayson Tatum → 76ers
Tatum (BOS) is in the lane for longer than three seconds.
Foul: Shooting · 01:48.7
James Harden → Jayson Tatum
Harden (PHI) steps forward into Tatum's (BOS) path and makes foot to foot contact with Tatum that affects his shot near the rim.
Foul: Defense 3 Second · 01:56.7
Paul Reed → Celtics
Reed (PHI) fails to fully clear the lane and is in the paint for longer than three seconds without imminently actively guarding an opponent.