Win probability changed during the game. · 27 May 2023
It was more exciting than 98% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIA leads and falls when BOS does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · BOS
Tatum · White · Smart · Brown · Horford
Closing lineup · MIA
Butler · Adebayo · Martin · Vincent · Strus
Jayson Tatum
44′ · +3
Derrick White
42′ · +3
Marcus Smart
42′ · -10
Jaylen Brown
39′ · +7
Al Horford
32′ · -6
Grant Williams
22′ · +2
Robert Williams III
17′ · +5
Sam Hauser
2′ · +1
Jimmy Butler III
47′ · 0
Bam Adebayo
46′ · +6
Caleb Martin
41′ · +1
Gabe Vincent
41′ · -2
Max Strus
25′ · -12
Kyle Lowry
18′ · +1
Cody Zeller
2′ · -7
Duncan Robinson
20′ · +8
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. BOS and MIA.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Boston Celtics
Brown, Tatum, White, Horford, and Smart played 18.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Brown, Tatum, White, Williams, and Smart played 6.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Tatum, White, Williams, Horford, and Smart played 6.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Miami Heat
Adebayo, Martin, Vincent, Strus, and Butler played 22.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Adebayo, Martin, Robinson, Vincent, and Butler played 7.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Adebayo, Robinson, Vincent, Lowry, and Butler played 7.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Boston Celtics
Brown, Tatum, White, Williams, and Williams played 5.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 11 points.
Tatum, White, Williams, Williams, and Smart played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Brown, White, Williams, Horford, and Smart played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Brown, Tatum, Williams, Horford, and Smart played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Brown, Williams, Hauser, Horford, and Smart played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Brown, Tatum, Williams, Williams, and Smart played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Miami Heat
Adebayo, Martin, Robinson, Lowry, and Butler played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Adebayo, Martin, Vincent, Lowry, and Butler played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Martin, Strus, Lowry, Butler, and Zeller played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Adebayo, Martin, Robinson, Vincent, and Lowry played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

