SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 27 May 2023

BOS104–103MIA
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 98% of NBA games since 2017

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ MIA winsBOS wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIA leads and falls when BOS does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · BOS

Jayson Tatum
Derrick White
Marcus Smart
Jaylen Brown
Al Horford

Tatum · White · Smart · Brown · Horford

Closing lineup · MIA

Jimmy Butler III
Bam Adebayo
Caleb Martin
Gabe Vincent
Max Strus

Butler · Adebayo · Martin · Vincent · Strus

Q1Q2Q3Q4
BOS
Jayson Tatum

Jayson Tatum

44′ · +3

Derrick White

Derrick White

42′ · +3

Marcus Smart

Marcus Smart

42′ · -10

Jaylen Brown

Jaylen Brown

39′ · +7

Al Horford

Al Horford

32′ · -6

Grant Williams

Grant Williams

22′ · +2

Robert Williams III

Robert Williams III

17′ · +5

Sam Hauser

Sam Hauser

2′ · +1

MIA
Jimmy Butler III

Jimmy Butler III

47′ · 0

Bam Adebayo

Bam Adebayo

46′ · +6

Caleb Martin

Caleb Martin

41′ · +1

Gabe Vincent

Gabe Vincent

41′ · -2

Max Strus

Max Strus

25′ · -12

Kyle Lowry

Kyle Lowry

18′ · +1

Cody Zeller

Cody Zeller

2′ · -7

Duncan Robinson

Duncan Robinson

20′ · +8

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. BOS and MIA.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Boston Celtics

  • Brown, Tatum, White, Horford, and Smart played 18.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Brown, Tatum, White, Williams, and Smart played 6.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Tatum, White, Williams, Horford, and Smart played 6.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

Miami Heat

  • Adebayo, Martin, Vincent, Strus, and Butler played 22.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Adebayo, Martin, Robinson, Vincent, and Butler played 7.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Adebayo, Robinson, Vincent, Lowry, and Butler played 7.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Boston Celtics

  • Brown, Tatum, White, Williams, and Williams played 5.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 11 points.

  • Tatum, White, Williams, Williams, and Smart played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Brown, White, Williams, Horford, and Smart played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Brown, Tatum, Williams, Horford, and Smart played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Brown, Williams, Hauser, Horford, and Smart played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Brown, Tatum, Williams, Williams, and Smart played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

Miami Heat

  • Adebayo, Martin, Robinson, Lowry, and Butler played 3.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Adebayo, Martin, Vincent, Lowry, and Butler played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Martin, Strus, Lowry, Butler, and Zeller played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Adebayo, Martin, Robinson, Vincent, and Lowry played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
20.201
103.1% of capacity
Kaseya Center · Miami
Series
Game 6
Conference finals
MIA 4-3
Scoring
207
combined points
12.2 below the season average (219.2)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

32 calls reviewed2 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Shooting · 00:33.5
Gabe Vincent → Jayson Tatum
Vincent (MIA) moves laterally and turns into Tatum's (BOS) path after his gather, initiating body contact that affects Tatum's driving shot attempt.
Violation: Lane · 01:01.0
Caleb Martin → Celtics
Martin (MIA) steps into the lane prior to Brown (BOS) releasing his free throw attempt, preventing White (BOS) from getting into position to rebound.