Win probability changed during the game. · 17 November 2023
It was more exciting than 90% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 33 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when LAC leads and falls when HOU does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · HOU
VanVleet · Sengun · Smith · Green · Holiday
Closing lineup · LAC
George · Leonard · Harden · Mann · Powell
Fred VanVleet
41′ · -14
Alperen Sengun
34′ · -17
Jabari Smith Jr.
33′ · -3
Jalen Green
33′ · -10
Dillon Brooks
31′ · -16
Aaron Holiday
18′ · +9
Jae'Sean Tate
9′ · -9
Tari Eason
20′ · +11
Jeff Green
15′ · +4
Jock Landale
7′ · +15
Paul George
40′ · +9
Kawhi Leonard
37′ · +18
Ivica Zubac
35′ · +12
James Harden
34′ · +21
Terance Mann
21′ · +15
Norman Powell
30′ · -6
Russell Westbrook
17′ · -9
Daniel Theis
10′ · -6
P.J. Tucker
15′ · -24
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. HOU and LAC.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Houston Rockets
VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Sengun, and Smith played 19.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Holiday, Green, Tate, Eason, and Green played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Brooks, Holiday, Green, Sengun, and Smith played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
LA Clippers
Zubac, Mann, Harden, George, and Leonard played 15.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 20 points.
Powell, Zubac, Harden, George, and Leonard played 7.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 11 points.
Powell, Zubac, Tucker, Westbrook, and George played 6.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Houston Rockets
VanVleet, Green, Sengun, Eason, and Green played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
VanVleet, Holiday, Landale, Smith, and Eason played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Holiday, Landale, Green, Eason, and Green played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
VanVleet, Green, Sengun, Smith, and Eason played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
VanVleet, Brooks, Holiday, Tate, and Sengun played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
VanVleet, Holiday, Sengun, Eason, and Green played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
VanVleet, Brooks, Holiday, Landale, and Smith played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
VanVleet, Brooks, Smith, Eason, and Green played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
VanVleet, Tate, Smith, Eason, and Green played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
VanVleet, Brooks, Sengun, Smith, and Eason played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
VanVleet, Holiday, Landale, Eason, and Green played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Tate, and Sengun played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
LA Clippers
Powell, Theis, Westbrook, Harden, and Leonard played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Powell, Theis, Tucker, Westbrook, and George played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Powell, Zubac, Westbrook, George, and Leonard played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Powell, Zubac, Tucker, George, and Leonard played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Powell, Theis, Mann, Harden, and Leonard played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Mann, Tucker, Harden, George, and Leonard played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Powell, Zubac, Mann, Harden, and Leonard played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.
⚠️ Optical tracking did not capture every player in this game.

