SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 17 November 2023

HOU100–106LAC
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 90% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 33 times

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ LAC winsHOU wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when LAC leads and falls when HOU does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · HOU

Fred VanVleet
Alperen Sengun
Jabari Smith Jr.
Jalen Green
Aaron Holiday

VanVleet · Sengun · Smith · Green · Holiday

Closing lineup · LAC

Paul George
Kawhi Leonard
James Harden
Terance Mann
Norman Powell

George · Leonard · Harden · Mann · Powell

Q1Q2Q3Q4
HOU
Fred VanVleet

Fred VanVleet

41′ · -14

Alperen Sengun

Alperen Sengun

34′ · -17

Jabari Smith Jr.

Jabari Smith Jr.

33′ · -3

Jalen Green

Jalen Green

33′ · -10

Dillon Brooks

Dillon Brooks

31′ · -16

Aaron Holiday

Aaron Holiday

18′ · +9

Jae'Sean Tate

Jae'Sean Tate

9′ · -9

Tari Eason

Tari Eason

20′ · +11

Jeff Green

Jeff Green

15′ · +4

Jock Landale

Jock Landale

7′ · +15

LAC
Paul George

Paul George

40′ · +9

Kawhi Leonard

Kawhi Leonard

37′ · +18

Ivica Zubac

Ivica Zubac

35′ · +12

James Harden

James Harden

34′ · +21

Terance Mann

Terance Mann

21′ · +15

Norman Powell

Norman Powell

30′ · -6

Russell Westbrook

Russell Westbrook

17′ · -9

Daniel Theis

Daniel Theis

10′ · -6

P.J. Tucker

P.J. Tucker

15′ · -24

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. HOU and LAC.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Houston Rockets

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Sengun, and Smith played 19.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Holiday, Green, Tate, Eason, and Green played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Brooks, Holiday, Green, Sengun, and Smith played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

LA Clippers

  • Zubac, Mann, Harden, George, and Leonard played 15.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 20 points.

  • Powell, Zubac, Harden, George, and Leonard played 7.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 11 points.

  • Powell, Zubac, Tucker, Westbrook, and George played 6.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Houston Rockets

  • VanVleet, Green, Sengun, Eason, and Green played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • VanVleet, Holiday, Landale, Smith, and Eason played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Holiday, Landale, Green, Eason, and Green played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • VanVleet, Green, Sengun, Smith, and Eason played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Holiday, Tate, and Sengun played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • VanVleet, Holiday, Sengun, Eason, and Green played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Holiday, Landale, and Smith played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Smith, Eason, and Green played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • VanVleet, Tate, Smith, Eason, and Green played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Sengun, Smith, and Eason played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • VanVleet, Holiday, Landale, Eason, and Green played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Tate, and Sengun played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

LA Clippers

  • Powell, Theis, Westbrook, Harden, and Leonard played 4.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Powell, Theis, Tucker, Westbrook, and George played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Powell, Zubac, Westbrook, George, and Leonard played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Powell, Zubac, Tucker, George, and Leonard played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Powell, Theis, Mann, Harden, and Leonard played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Mann, Tucker, Harden, George, and Leonard played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Powell, Zubac, Mann, Harden, and Leonard played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
19.370
107.6% of capacity
Intuit Dome · Inglewood
Scoring
206
combined points
22.4 below the season average (228.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

14 calls reviewed2 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Personal · 00:49.2
Kawhi Leonard → Jalen Green
Leonard (LAC) initiates contact to Green's (HOU) wrist and the contact causes him to lose control of the ball.
Foul: Personal · 01:39.0
James Harden → Alperen Sengun
Harden (LAC) initiates contact with Sengun's (HOU) arm that causes him to lose control of the ball.

⚠️ Optical tracking did not capture every player in this game.