Win probability changed during the game. · 8 November 2023
The ESPN data for this game contradicts the official result, so it cannot be rated
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
The last point of this curve falls on CHI's side, but PHX won 116-115. It is an ESPN error at the close of the game: the curve is shown as it is and no conclusion is drawn from it.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when CHI leads and falls when PHX does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · PHX
Durant · Nurkic · Allen · Bates-Diop · Bol
Closing lineup · CHI
LaVine · Vucevic · DeRozan · White · Caruso
Kevin Durant
42′ · +5
Jusuf Nurkic
38′ · +12
Grayson Allen
37′ · +8
Keita Bates-Diop
31′ · +19
Bradley Beal
24′ · +16
Eric Gordon
25′ · -16
Josh Okogie
18′ · -18
Yuta Watanabe
18′ · -11
Drew Eubanks
14′ · -12
Jordan Goodwin
17′ · +2
Bol Bol
0′ · 0
Zach LaVine
41′ · -14
Nikola Vucevic
41′ · -16
DeMar DeRozan
40′ · -3
Coby White
37′ · -11
Torrey Craig
20′ · -24
Alex Caruso
31′ · +24
Patrick Williams
21′ · +18
Andre Drummond
12′ · +15
Jevon Carter
13′ · +10
Ayo Dosunmu
10′ · -4
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. PHX and CHI.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Phoenix Suns
Allen, Bates-Diop, Durant, Beal, and Nurkic played 12.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 20 points.
Okogie, Watanabe, Eubanks, Durant, and Gordon played 8.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Allen, Bates-Diop, Goodwin, Durant, and Nurkic played 6.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Chicago Bulls
Caruso, White, DeRozan, Vucevic, and LaVine played 12.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Craig, White, DeRozan, Vucevic, and LaVine played 12.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 21 points.
Caruso, Carter, Williams, DeRozan, and Drummond played 6.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 12 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Phoenix Suns
Allen, Bates-Diop, Durant, Gordon, and Nurkic played 6.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Allen, Goodwin, Durant, Gordon, and Nurkic played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Okogie, Watanabe, Eubanks, Gordon, and Beal played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Okogie, Watanabe, Goodwin, Beal, and Nurkic played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Allen, Okogie, Durant, Gordon, and Nurkic played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Allen, Bates-Diop, Watanabe, Eubanks, and Beal played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Allen, Bates-Diop, Goodwin, Beal, and Nurkic played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Okogie, Goodwin, Durant, Gordon, and Nurkic played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Okogie, Watanabe, Eubanks, Goodwin, and Beal played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Chicago Bulls
Caruso, Craig, White, Vucevic, and LaVine played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Carter, Williams, Dosunmu, DeRozan, and Vucevic played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Caruso, White, Williams, Vucevic, and LaVine played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Craig, White, Dosunmu, Vucevic, and LaVine played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Williams, Dosunmu, DeRozan, Vucevic, and LaVine played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Caruso, Carter, Williams, Drummond, and LaVine played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Caruso, White, Williams, Drummond, and LaVine played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Carter, Williams, Dosunmu, DeRozan, and Drummond played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

