SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 8 November 2023

PHX116–115CHI
Is it worth watching?

The ESPN data for this game contradicts the official result, so it cannot be rated

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ CHI winsPHX wins ↓

The last point of this curve falls on CHI's side, but PHX won 116-115. It is an ESPN error at the close of the game: the curve is shown as it is and no conclusion is drawn from it.

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when CHI leads and falls when PHX does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · PHX

Kevin Durant
Jusuf Nurkic
Grayson Allen
Keita Bates-Diop
Bol Bol

Durant · Nurkic · Allen · Bates-Diop · Bol

Closing lineup · CHI

Zach LaVine
Nikola Vucevic
DeMar DeRozan
Coby White
Alex Caruso

LaVine · Vucevic · DeRozan · White · Caruso

Q1Q2Q3Q4OT1
PHX
Kevin Durant

Kevin Durant

42′ · +5

Jusuf Nurkic

Jusuf Nurkic

38′ · +12

Grayson Allen

Grayson Allen

37′ · +8

Keita Bates-Diop

Keita Bates-Diop

31′ · +19

Bradley Beal

Bradley Beal

24′ · +16

Eric Gordon

Eric Gordon

25′ · -16

Josh Okogie

Josh Okogie

18′ · -18

Yuta Watanabe

Yuta Watanabe

18′ · -11

Drew Eubanks

Drew Eubanks

14′ · -12

Jordan Goodwin

Jordan Goodwin

17′ · +2

Bol Bol

Bol Bol

0′ · 0

CHI
Zach LaVine

Zach LaVine

41′ · -14

Nikola Vucevic

Nikola Vucevic

41′ · -16

DeMar DeRozan

DeMar DeRozan

40′ · -3

Coby White

Coby White

37′ · -11

Torrey Craig

Torrey Craig

20′ · -24

Alex Caruso

Alex Caruso

31′ · +24

Patrick Williams

Patrick Williams

21′ · +18

Andre Drummond

Andre Drummond

12′ · +15

Jevon Carter

Jevon Carter

13′ · +10

Ayo Dosunmu

Ayo Dosunmu

10′ · -4

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. PHX and CHI.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Phoenix Suns

  • Allen, Bates-Diop, Durant, Beal, and Nurkic played 12.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 20 points.

  • Okogie, Watanabe, Eubanks, Durant, and Gordon played 8.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Allen, Bates-Diop, Goodwin, Durant, and Nurkic played 6.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

Chicago Bulls

  • Caruso, White, DeRozan, Vucevic, and LaVine played 12.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Craig, White, DeRozan, Vucevic, and LaVine played 12.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 21 points.

  • Caruso, Carter, Williams, DeRozan, and Drummond played 6.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 12 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Phoenix Suns

  • Allen, Bates-Diop, Durant, Gordon, and Nurkic played 6.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Allen, Goodwin, Durant, Gordon, and Nurkic played 3.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Okogie, Watanabe, Eubanks, Gordon, and Beal played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Okogie, Watanabe, Goodwin, Beal, and Nurkic played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Allen, Okogie, Durant, Gordon, and Nurkic played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.

  • Allen, Bates-Diop, Watanabe, Eubanks, and Beal played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Allen, Bates-Diop, Goodwin, Beal, and Nurkic played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Okogie, Goodwin, Durant, Gordon, and Nurkic played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Okogie, Watanabe, Eubanks, Goodwin, and Beal played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

Chicago Bulls

  • Caruso, Craig, White, Vucevic, and LaVine played 5.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Carter, Williams, Dosunmu, DeRozan, and Vucevic played 3.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Caruso, White, Williams, Vucevic, and LaVine played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Craig, White, Dosunmu, Vucevic, and LaVine played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Williams, Dosunmu, DeRozan, Vucevic, and LaVine played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Caruso, Carter, Williams, Drummond, and LaVine played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Caruso, White, Williams, Drummond, and LaVine played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Carter, Williams, Dosunmu, DeRozan, and Drummond played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
18.220
87.1% of capacity
United Center · Chicago
Scoring
231
combined points
2.6 above the season average (228.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

41 calls reviewed3 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Shooting · 00:40.7
Nikola Vucevic → Jusuf Nurkic
Vucevic (CHI) initiates contact with Nurkic's (PHX) head, affecting his play at the basket.
Turnover: Traveling · 01:27.3
Jusuf Nurkic → Bulls
Nurkic (PHX) gathers the pass in the air and takes three steps.
Foul: Shooting · 01:37.8
Bradley Beal → Zach LaVine
Beal (PHX) lowers his arm and initiates contact to LaVine's (CHI) arm that affects his driving shot attempt.