Win probability changed during the game. · 2 December 2023
It was more exciting than 70% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when LAC leads and falls when GSW does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · GSW
Curry · Thompson · Moody · Green · Podziemski
Closing lineup · LAC
Leonard · George · Mann · Westbrook · Powell
Stephen Curry
37′ · +2
Klay Thompson
33′ · 0
Moses Moody
32′ · -1
Draymond Green
32′ · -6
Dario Saric
20′ · -10
Brandin Podziemski
37′ · +1
Kevon Looney
18′ · +3
Cory Joseph
16′ · +1
Jonathan Kuminga
16′ · +5
Kawhi Leonard
39′ · +8
Paul George
38′ · +5
James Harden
35′ · 0
Terance Mann
24′ · -6
Ivica Zubac
23′ · +1
Russell Westbrook
19′ · -11
Kobe Brown
11′ · -6
Daniel Theis
22′ · -1
Norman Powell
30′ · +13
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. GSW and LAC.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Golden State Warriors
Looney, Kuminga, Podziemski, Thompson, and Joseph played 11.4 minutes together.
Moody, Podziemski, Curry, Thompson, and Green played 10.0 minutes together.
Moody, Curry, Thompson, Green, and Saric played 9.9 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Golden State Warriors lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
LA Clippers
Powell, Zubac, Harden, George, and Leonard played 8.8 minutes together.
Theis, Mann, Harden, George, and Leonard played 5.5 minutes together.
Zubac, Mann, Harden, George, and Leonard played 5.4 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each LA Clippers lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
▸See every lineup of the game
Golden State Warriors
Moody, Podziemski, Curry, Green, and Saric played 8.0 minutes together.
Looney, Kuminga, Podziemski, Curry, and Joseph played 3.0 minutes together.
Looney, Moody, Curry, Thompson, and Green played 1.6 minutes together.
Kuminga, Moody, Podziemski, Curry, and Saric played 1.4 minutes together.
Looney, Podziemski, Curry, Joseph, and Green played 1.2 minutes together.
Looney, Moody, Podziemski, Curry, and Green played 1.1 minutes together.
LA Clippers
Theis, Brown, Westbrook, George, and Leonard played 3.1 minutes together.
Powell, Theis, Westbrook, George, and Leonard played 2.9 minutes together.
Theis, Mann, Brown, Westbrook, and George played 2.6 minutes together.
Powell, Zubac, Brown, Westbrook, and Harden played 2.6 minutes together.
Powell, Theis, Westbrook, Harden, and Leonard played 2.2 minutes together.
Powell, Zubac, Mann, Harden, and George played 2.2 minutes together.
Powell, Mann, Harden, George, and Leonard played 2.2 minutes together.
Powell, Theis, Harden, George, and Leonard played 2.0 minutes together.
Powell, Theis, Mann, Harden, and Leonard played 1.6 minutes together.
Powell, Theis, Mann, Westbrook, and Leonard played 1.5 minutes together.
Powell, Zubac, Mann, Brown, and Harden played 1.4 minutes together.
Zubac, Brown, Westbrook, George, and Leonard played 1.3 minutes together.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.
