Win probability changed during the game. · 16 December 2023
It was more exciting than 87% of NBA games since 2017
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DEN leads and falls when OKC does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · OKC
Gilgeous-Alexander · Williams · Holmgren · Dort · Wiggins
Closing lineup · DEN
Jokic · Gordon · Porter · Murray · Braun
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
37′ · +3
Jalen Williams
33′ · +10
Chet Holmgren
32′ · +10
Luguentz Dort
26′ · +5
Josh Giddey
15′ · -7
Jaylin Williams
22′ · -8
Isaiah Joe
27′ · +12
Ousmane Dieng
5′ · -4
Cason Wallace
18′ · -7
Kenrich Williams
13′ · -7
Aaron Wiggins
12′ · -4
Nikola Jokic
37′ · -9
Aaron Gordon
33′ · -7
Michael Porter Jr.
32′ · +1
Jamal Murray
28′ · -3
Justin Holiday
25′ · -8
Christian Braun
25′ · +1
Reggie Jackson
22′ · +4
Peyton Watson
16′ · +3
Julian Strawther
15′ · +8
DeAndre Jordan
6′ · +5
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. OKC and DEN.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Holmgren, Williams, and Williams played 7.5 minutes together.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Giddey, Holmgren, and Williams played 5.9 minutes together.
Williams, Wiggins, Holmgren, Williams, and Wallace played 4.5 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Oklahoma City Thunder lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
Denver Nuggets
Murray, Porter, Holiday, Gordon, and Jokic played 16.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Strawther, Braun, Watson, Jordan, and Jackson played 6.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Porter, Strawther, Braun, Jackson, and Gordon played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Oklahoma City Thunder
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Joe, Holmgren, and Williams played 4.4 minutes together.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Joe, Giddey, Holmgren, and Wallace played 2.9 minutes together.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Joe, Williams, Dieng, and Wallace played 2.3 minutes together.
Williams, Joe, Wiggins, Williams, and Wallace played 2.2 minutes together.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Joe, Holmgren, Dieng, and Wallace played 1.8 minutes together.
Williams, Joe, Wiggins, Williams, and Williams played 1.6 minutes together.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Joe, Holmgren, Williams, and Williams played 1.5 minutes together.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Joe, Holmgren, and Williams played 1.5 minutes together.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Giddey, Williams, and Williams played 1.3 minutes together.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Joe, Giddey, and Williams played 1.3 minutes together.
Williams, Joe, Giddey, Wiggins, and Williams played 1.2 minutes together.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Williams, Williams, and Wallace played 1.2 minutes together.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Joe, Williams, and Wallace played 1.2 minutes together.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Joe, Wiggins, and Holmgren played 1.2 minutes together.
Denver Nuggets
Porter, Jackson, Holiday, Gordon, and Jokic played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Strawther, Braun, Watson, Jackson, and Jokic played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Murray, Braun, Holiday, Gordon, and Jokic played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Murray, Porter, Braun, Gordon, and Jokic played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Murray, Porter, Watson, Gordon, and Jokic played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Murray, Braun, Watson, Holiday, and Jokic played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Porter, Braun, Watson, Jackson, and Jokic played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Murray, Porter, Braun, Jackson, and Jokic played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

