SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 16 December 2023

OKC118–117DEN
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 87% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ DEN winsOKC wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DEN leads and falls when OKC does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · OKC

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Jalen Williams
Chet Holmgren
Luguentz Dort
Aaron Wiggins

Gilgeous-Alexander · Williams · Holmgren · Dort · Wiggins

Closing lineup · DEN

Nikola Jokic
Aaron Gordon
Michael Porter Jr.
Jamal Murray
Christian Braun

Jokic · Gordon · Porter · Murray · Braun

Q1Q2Q3Q4
OKC
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

37′ · +3

Jalen Williams

Jalen Williams

33′ · +10

Chet Holmgren

Chet Holmgren

32′ · +10

Luguentz Dort

Luguentz Dort

26′ · +5

Josh Giddey

Josh Giddey

15′ · -7

Jaylin Williams

Jaylin Williams

22′ · -8

Isaiah Joe

Isaiah Joe

27′ · +12

Ousmane Dieng

Ousmane Dieng

5′ · -4

Cason Wallace

Cason Wallace

18′ · -7

Kenrich Williams

Kenrich Williams

13′ · -7

Aaron Wiggins

Aaron Wiggins

12′ · -4

DEN
Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic

37′ · -9

Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon

33′ · -7

Michael Porter Jr.

Michael Porter Jr.

32′ · +1

Jamal Murray

Jamal Murray

28′ · -3

Justin Holiday

Justin Holiday

25′ · -8

Christian Braun

Christian Braun

25′ · +1

Reggie Jackson

Reggie Jackson

22′ · +4

Peyton Watson

Peyton Watson

16′ · +3

Julian Strawther

Julian Strawther

15′ · +8

DeAndre Jordan

DeAndre Jordan

6′ · +5

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. OKC and DEN.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Holmgren, Williams, and Williams played 7.5 minutes together.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Giddey, Holmgren, and Williams played 5.9 minutes together.

  • Williams, Wiggins, Holmgren, Williams, and Wallace played 4.5 minutes together.

The plus-minus of each Oklahoma City Thunder lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.

Denver Nuggets

  • Murray, Porter, Holiday, Gordon, and Jokic played 16.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Strawther, Braun, Watson, Jordan, and Jackson played 6.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Porter, Strawther, Braun, Jackson, and Gordon played 4.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Joe, Holmgren, and Williams played 4.4 minutes together.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Joe, Giddey, Holmgren, and Wallace played 2.9 minutes together.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Joe, Williams, Dieng, and Wallace played 2.3 minutes together.

  • Williams, Joe, Wiggins, Williams, and Wallace played 2.2 minutes together.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Joe, Holmgren, Dieng, and Wallace played 1.8 minutes together.

  • Williams, Joe, Wiggins, Williams, and Williams played 1.6 minutes together.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Joe, Holmgren, Williams, and Williams played 1.5 minutes together.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Joe, Holmgren, and Williams played 1.5 minutes together.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Giddey, Williams, and Williams played 1.3 minutes together.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Joe, Giddey, and Williams played 1.3 minutes together.

  • Williams, Joe, Giddey, Wiggins, and Williams played 1.2 minutes together.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Williams, Williams, and Wallace played 1.2 minutes together.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Joe, Williams, and Wallace played 1.2 minutes together.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Joe, Wiggins, and Holmgren played 1.2 minutes together.

Denver Nuggets

  • Porter, Jackson, Holiday, Gordon, and Jokic played 4.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Strawther, Braun, Watson, Jackson, and Jokic played 3.7 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Murray, Braun, Holiday, Gordon, and Jokic played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Murray, Porter, Braun, Gordon, and Jokic played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Murray, Porter, Watson, Gordon, and Jokic played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Murray, Braun, Watson, Holiday, and Jokic played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Porter, Braun, Watson, Jackson, and Jokic played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Murray, Porter, Braun, Jackson, and Jokic played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
19.611
100.5% of capacity
Ball Arena · Denver
Scoring
235
combined points
6.6 above the season average (228.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

18 calls reviewed1 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Shooting · 01:11.1
Christian Braun → Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Braun (DEN) avoids initiating any illegal contact with Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) during his drive to the basket and shot attempt.