Win probability changed during the game. · 19 December 2023
It was more exciting than 53% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when NOP leads and falls when MEM does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · MEM
Williams · Bane · Morant · Jackson · Aldama
Closing lineup · NOP
Ingram · Jones · Murphy · Marshall · Daniels
Vince Williams Jr.
35′ · -8
Desmond Bane
35′ · +5
Ja Morant
35′ · +12
Jaren Jackson Jr.
30′ · -2
Bismack Biyombo
22′ · +3
John Konchar
22′ · -6
Santi Aldama
16′ · -5
Ziaire Williams
18′ · +1
Xavier Tillman
20′ · +3
David Roddy
9′ · +7
CJ McCollum
41′ · +9
Brandon Ingram
37′ · 0
Jonas Valanciunas
33′ · +5
Herbert Jones
30′ · 0
Zion Williamson
25′ · -13
Trey Murphy III
21′ · -6
Naji Marshall
17′ · -11
Jose Alvarado
8′ · -9
Cody Zeller
13′ · -2
Dyson Daniels
13′ · +17
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MEM and NOP.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Memphis Grizzlies
Jackson, Morant, Bane, Williams, and Biyombo played 8.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Jackson, Morant, Tillman, Bane, and Williams played 5.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Morant, Bane, Roddy, Williams, and Biyombo played 5.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
New Orleans Pelicans
Ingram, Williamson, Jones, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 12.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 13 points.
Ingram, Jones, Murphy, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Ingram, Marshall, Murphy, Alvarado, and Zeller played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Memphis Grizzlies
Konchar, Bane, Aldama, Williams, and Biyombo played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 11 points.
Jackson, Morant, Konchar, Tillman, and Williams played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Jackson, Morant, Tillman, Williams, and Williams played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Jackson, Konchar, Bane, Williams, and Aldama played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Konchar, Bane, Williams, Aldama, and Biyombo played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Konchar, Bane, Roddy, Williams, and Biyombo played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Jackson, Morant, Konchar, Williams, and Aldama played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Morant, Konchar, Tillman, Williams, and Aldama played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Morant, Konchar, Tillman, Aldama, and Williams played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Morant, Tillman, Bane, Roddy, and Williams played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Jackson, Morant, Bane, Aldama, and Williams played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Jackson, Konchar, Tillman, Bane, and Williams played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
New Orleans Pelicans
Ingram, Jones, Daniels, McCollum, and Zeller played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Ingram, Jones, Daniels, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 14 points.
Ingram, Williamson, Jones, McCollum, and Zeller played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Marshall, Murphy, Daniels, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Ingram, Williamson, Marshall, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Williamson, Marshall, Murphy, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Williamson, Murphy, Daniels, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Marshall, Murphy, Alvarado, McCollum, and Zeller played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

