Denver Nuggets – Golden State Warriors · NBA

Win probability changed during the game. · 4 January 2024

DEN130–127GSW

Is it worth watching?

Recommended

It was more exciting than 63% of NBA games since 2017

· The win probability swung between the two teams 30 times

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ GSW winsDEN wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when GSW leads and falls when DEN does.

This is how the game was decided.

Nikola Jokić decided it, the Denver Nuggets player with the most points (34, with 9 rebounds and 10 assists; +4 with him on the floor); the winner's best plus-minus was Jamal Murray's (+9). The criterion: the winner's points in the box score; plus-minus says who was on the floor when the game opened up.

The game-winner in Golden State Warriors 127-130 Denver Nuggets (January 4, 2024) was hit by Nikola Jokić: a three-pointer with 0.1 s left in the fourth quarter, putting the Denver Nuggets up 130-127. They never trailed again.

The biggest run of Golden State Warriors 127-130 Denver Nuggets (January 4, 2024) was a 13-0 run by the Denver Nuggets in the fourth quarter (from 6:34 to 3:23), from 105-123 to 118-123. The Golden State Warriors' best was a 7-0 run in the first quarter (from 8:26 to 7:27), from 11-9 to 18-9.

What were the keys of the last Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets game?

▸See where these figures come from

Play: Nikola Jokic makes 39-foot three pointer.

I count as the game-winner the basket that puts the winning team ahead for good. Source: the official NBA play-by-play (since 2002-03) and each team's official box scores.

A run here is consecutive points by one team without the opponent scoring. Source: the official NBA play-by-play (since 2002-03) and each team's official box scores.

Source: the game's official box score and play-by-play.

Nikola Jokić decided this game: his points put his team ahead with 0.1 seconds left in the fourth quarter, and the opponent never led again.

It is one of the 8 games he has decided this way in the NBA since the 2002-03 season.

His profile shows the games Jokić decided

▸See where these figures come from

A game is decided by the last basket that puts a team ahead in the final ten seconds of the fourth quarter or of an overtime, if that team wins.

4 January 2024 · The source is the ESPN play-by-play, play espn:401585106:631; the date is the one on the NBA box score.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · DEN

Jokic · Gordon · Caldwell-Pope · Murray · Watson

Closing lineup · GSW

Curry · Thompson · Looney · Wiggins · Podziemski

Q1Q2Q3Q4

DEN

Nikola Jokic

38′ · +4

Aaron Gordon

35′ · +6

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

35′ · +4

Jamal Murray

32′ · +9

Michael Porter Jr.

30′ · +5

Reggie Jackson

16′ · -6

Christian Braun

18′ · -5

Peyton Watson

19′ · +7

Julian Strawther

9′ · -6

Zeke Nnaji

6′ · -3

GSW

Stephen Curry

35′ · -1

Klay Thompson

35′ · -9

Chris Paul

30′ · +4

Kevon Looney

22′ · -2

Jonathan Kuminga

19′ · +6

Andrew Wiggins

27′ · -14

Trayce Jackson-Davis

21′ · 0

Brandin Podziemski

28′ · -2

Dario Saric

23′ · +3

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DEN and GSW.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Denver Nuggets

Murray, Porter, Caldwell-Pope, Gordon, and Jokic played 24.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Nnaji, Strawther, Braun, Watson, and Jackson played 6.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Murray, Porter, Braun, Watson, and Gordon played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

Golden State Warriors

Paul, Looney, Kuminga, Curry, and Thompson played 9.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 14 points.
Paul, Jackson-Davis, Podziemski, Wiggins, and Saric played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Jackson-Davis, Podziemski, Curry, Wiggins, and Saric played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Denver Nuggets

Strawther, Braun, Watson, Jackson, and Jokic played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Murray, Watson, Caldwell-Pope, Gordon, and Jokic played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Porter, Jackson, Caldwell-Pope, Gordon, and Jokic played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Braun, Jackson, Caldwell-Pope, Gordon, and Jokic played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Braun, Watson, Jackson, Caldwell-Pope, and Jokic played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.

Golden State Warriors

Paul, Jackson-Davis, Podziemski, Thompson, and Saric played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Looney, Podziemski, Curry, Thompson, and Wiggins played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
Looney, Kuminga, Podziemski, Curry, and Thompson played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Paul, Podziemski, Thompson, Wiggins, and Saric played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Paul, Looney, Kuminga, Curry, and Wiggins played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Paul, Jackson-Davis, Curry, Thompson, and Saric played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Paul, Jackson-Davis, Curry, Thompson, and Wiggins played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Looney, Kuminga, Curry, Thompson, and Wiggins played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Kuminga, Jackson-Davis, Curry, Thompson, and Wiggins played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Paul, Curry, Thompson, Wiggins, and Saric played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Nikola Jokić covered 4.28 km, more than anyone in the game.

Nikola Jokić touched the ball 109 times, a game high.
Nikola Jokić made 83 passes, a game high.
Nikola Jokić defended 9 shots at the rim, a game high, and opponents made 7.

▸See what was measured for each player

Denver Nuggets

Player	km	km/h	Touches	Passes
Nikola Jokić	4.28	6.3	109	83
Aaron Gordon	4.05	6.5	49	28
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	3.94	6.4	38	29
Jamal Murray	3.86	6.8	63	39
Michael Porter Jr.	3.38	6.3	28	21
Christian Braun	2.51	7.5	25	19
Peyton Watson	2.32	6.6	31	18
Reggie Jackson	1.93	6.7	32	25
Julian Strawther	1.16	6.8	8	7
Zeke Nnaji	0.77	6.9	7	6

Golden State Warriors

Player	km	km/h	Touches	Passes
Stephen Curry	4.20	6.9	80	52
Klay Thompson	4.10	6.6	36	18
Brandin Podziemski	3.78	7.5	57	45
Chris Paul	3.48	6.5	59	51
Andrew Wiggins	3.38	6.9	26

The figures come from the NBA's optical tracking (NBA.com) for this game; speed is each player's average while on the floor.

Who stood out on defense during the season

These figures cover the whole 2023-24 regular season, not this game.

Denver Nuggets

Nikola Jokić deflected 3.0 passes per game over his 79 games.
He ranks 8 of 373 in the league.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope deflected 2.5 passes per game over his 74 games.
He ranks 25 of 373 in the league.
Jamal Murray contested 5.6 shots per game over his 59 games.
He ranks 71 of 373 in the league.

Golden State Warriors

Brandin Podziemski drew 0.53 charges per game over his 72 games.
He ranks 1 of 373 in the league.
Trayce Jackson-Davis defended 4.6 shots at the rim per game over his 67 games, and opponents made 8 fewer out of every 100 than usual.
He ranks 17 of 146 in the league.
Stephen Curry drew 0.09 charges per game over his 74 games.
He ranks 47 of 373 in the league.

Hustle figures come from the hustle stats the NBA publishes (NBA.com) and rim defense comes from its tracking; both cover the regular season. For each player in this game we show the figure that ranks him highest in the league, and for each team, the three best ranked. Ranks count players with at least 30 games and, at the rim, at least 4 defended shots per game.

The Golden State Warriors have won 58 of their 120 games against the Denver Nuggets.

58-62record of the Golden State Warriors · NBA 1996-97 – 2025-26, regular season and playoffs

2-2in 2025-26

See the full head-to-head in the Analyst

See where it comes from

Official NBA box scores, regular season and playoffs, 1996-97 – 2025-26. It counts every game between the two teams that the house holds, this one included.

SportiveWorld knows much more about this game

Game context

Attendance

18.064

100% of capacity

Chase Center · San Francisco

Scoring

257

combined points

28.6 above the season average (228.4)

⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

9 calls reviewed1 errors admitted by the NBA

Foul: Loose Ball · 00:48.8

Aaron Gordon → Dario Saric

Gordon (DEN) clamps and holds Saric's (GSW) left arm and affects his ability to control the rebound.