Win probability changed during the game. · 22 January 2024
It was more exciting than 71% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 22 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when PHX leads and falls when CHI does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · CHI
White · DeRozan · Vucevic · Caruso · Williams
Closing lineup · PHX
Booker · Durant · Beal · Allen · Nurkic
Coby White
41′ · +9
DeMar DeRozan
40′ · -10
Nikola Vucevic
37′ · +10
Alex Caruso
33′ · +14
Patrick Williams
32′ · -10
Ayo Dosunmu
30′ · -10
Dalen Terry
9′ · +1
Andre Drummond
11′ · -12
Jevon Carter
8′ · -2
Devin Booker
41′ · -3
Kevin Durant
41′ · +3
Bradley Beal
38′ · +6
Grayson Allen
36′ · -13
Jusuf Nurkic
26′ · -15
Josh Okogie
14′ · -4
Drew Eubanks
22′ · +19
Keita Bates-Diop
18′ · +15
Saben Lee
6′ · +2
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. CHI and PHX.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Chicago Bulls
Caruso, White, Williams, DeRozan, and Vucevic played 15.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Caruso, White, Dosunmu, DeRozan, and Vucevic played 8.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
White, Williams, Dosunmu, DeRozan, and Vucevic played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Phoenix Suns
Booker, Allen, Durant, Beal, and Nurkic played 17.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 11 points.
Booker, Allen, Eubanks, Durant, and Beal played 5.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Booker, Bates-Diop, Okogie, Eubanks, and Beal played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Chicago Bulls
Caruso, White, Dosunmu, Terry, and Vucevic played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 11 points.
Carter, White, Williams, DeRozan, and Drummond played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Williams, Dosunmu, Terry, DeRozan, and Drummond played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Carter, Williams, Dosunmu, DeRozan, and Drummond played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
White, Williams, Dosunmu, Terry, and Vucevic played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Caruso, White, Williams, Dosunmu, and Vucevic played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Caruso, Dosunmu, Terry, DeRozan, and Drummond played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Caruso, Carter, Dosunmu, DeRozan, and Drummond played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
White, Williams, Dosunmu, DeRozan, and Drummond played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Phoenix Suns
Booker, Allen, Okogie, Durant, and Nurkic played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Bates-Diop, Eubanks, Lee, Durant, and Beal played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Booker, Allen, Bates-Diop, Eubanks, and Durant played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Allen, Eubanks, Lee, Durant, and Beal played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Bates-Diop, Okogie, Durant, Beal, and Nurkic played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Booker, Allen, Bates-Diop, Okogie, and Eubanks played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Booker, Allen, Bates-Diop, Okogie, and Nurkic played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Booker, Bates-Diop, Eubanks, Durant, and Beal played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

