SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 27 January 2024

MIN112–113SAS
Is it worth watching?
Recommended

It was more exciting than 53% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ SAS winsMIN wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when SAS leads and falls when MIN does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · MIN

Anthony Edwards
Rudy Gobert
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Jaden McDaniels
Karl-Anthony Towns

Edwards · Gobert · Alexander-Walker · McDaniels · Towns

Closing lineup · SAS

Devin Vassell
Jeremy Sochan
Victor Wembanyama
Tre Jones
Keldon Johnson

Vassell · Sochan · Wembanyama · Jones · Johnson

Q1Q2Q3Q4
MIN
Anthony Edwards

Anthony Edwards

38′ · +7

Rudy Gobert

Rudy Gobert

37′ · -4

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

33′ · +2

Jaden McDaniels

Jaden McDaniels

33′ · +11

Karl-Anthony Towns

Karl-Anthony Towns

32′ · -14

Naz Reid

Naz Reid

22′ · +5

Kyle Anderson

Kyle Anderson

19′ · -5

Shake Milton

Shake Milton

16′ · +4

Jordan McLaughlin

Jordan McLaughlin

9′ · -11

SAS
Devin Vassell

Devin Vassell

36′ · -9

Jeremy Sochan

Jeremy Sochan

31′ · -3

Victor Wembanyama

Victor Wembanyama

30′ · +19

Tre Jones

Tre Jones

29′ · +18

Julian Champagnie

Julian Champagnie

18′ · +1

Keldon Johnson

Keldon Johnson

27′ · 0

Blake Wesley

Blake Wesley

20′ · -17

Dominick Barlow

Dominick Barlow

18′ · -18

Cedi Osman

Cedi Osman

16′ · +3

Doug McDermott

Doug McDermott

17′ · +11

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MIN and SAS.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • Towns, Alexander-Walker, Edwards, McDaniels, and Gobert played 19.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Alexander-Walker, Reid, Edwards, McDaniels, and Gobert played 5.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Towns, Milton, McLaughlin, Gobert, and Anderson played 3.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

San Antonio Spurs

  • Vassell, Jones, Champagnie, Sochan, and Wembanyama played 13.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Osman, Johnson, Jones, Wembanyama, and McDermott played 7.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 13 points.

  • Johnson, Vassell, Wesley, Sochan, and Barlow played 4.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • Towns, Milton, Alexander-Walker, McDaniels, and Gobert played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Milton, McLaughlin, Reid, Edwards, and Anderson played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Milton, McLaughlin, Reid, Gobert, and Anderson played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Towns, Alexander-Walker, Reid, Edwards, and Anderson played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Milton, Reid, Edwards, McDaniels, and Anderson played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Reid, Edwards, McDaniels, Gobert, and Anderson played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Towns, Milton, Reid, Edwards, and Anderson played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Towns, Alexander-Walker, Reid, Edwards, and McDaniels played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Alexander-Walker, Reid, Edwards, Gobert, and Anderson played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

San Antonio Spurs

  • Osman, Johnson, Champagnie, Wesley, and Barlow played 4.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Johnson, Vassell, Jones, Sochan, and Wembanyama played 3.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Vassell, Wesley, Sochan, Wembanyama, and McDermott played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Johnson, Vassell, Jones, Sochan, and Barlow played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Osman, Johnson, Vassell, Wesley, and Barlow played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Vassell, Wesley, Sochan, Barlow, and McDermott played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Johnson, Vassell, Wesley, Wembanyama, and McDermott played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Vassell, Jones, Sochan, Barlow, and McDermott played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
17.726
96.6% of capacity
Frost Bank Center · San Antonio
Scoring
225
combined points
3.4 below the season average (228.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

13 calls reviewed2 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Offensive · 00:52.4
Devin Vassell → Rudy Gobert
Vassell (SAS) does not give a step of distance as he attempts to establish himself in Gobert's (MIN) path, and illegal contact occurs that affects his ability to defend.
Foul: Defense 3 Second · 01:27.0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker → Spurs
Alexander-Walker (MIN) is in the paint for longer than three seconds without imminently actively guarding an opponent.