Win probability changed during the game. · 27 January 2024
It was more exciting than 53% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when SAS leads and falls when MIN does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · MIN
Edwards · Gobert · Alexander-Walker · McDaniels · Towns
Closing lineup · SAS
Vassell · Sochan · Wembanyama · Jones · Johnson
Anthony Edwards
38′ · +7
Rudy Gobert
37′ · -4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
33′ · +2
Jaden McDaniels
33′ · +11
Karl-Anthony Towns
32′ · -14
Naz Reid
22′ · +5
Kyle Anderson
19′ · -5
Shake Milton
16′ · +4
Jordan McLaughlin
9′ · -11
Devin Vassell
36′ · -9
Jeremy Sochan
31′ · -3
Victor Wembanyama
30′ · +19
Tre Jones
29′ · +18
Julian Champagnie
18′ · +1
Keldon Johnson
27′ · 0
Blake Wesley
20′ · -17
Dominick Barlow
18′ · -18
Cedi Osman
16′ · +3
Doug McDermott
17′ · +11
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MIN and SAS.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Towns, Alexander-Walker, Edwards, McDaniels, and Gobert played 19.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Alexander-Walker, Reid, Edwards, McDaniels, and Gobert played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Towns, Milton, McLaughlin, Gobert, and Anderson played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
San Antonio Spurs
Vassell, Jones, Champagnie, Sochan, and Wembanyama played 13.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Osman, Johnson, Jones, Wembanyama, and McDermott played 7.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 13 points.
Johnson, Vassell, Wesley, Sochan, and Barlow played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Minnesota Timberwolves
Towns, Milton, Alexander-Walker, McDaniels, and Gobert played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Milton, McLaughlin, Reid, Edwards, and Anderson played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Milton, McLaughlin, Reid, Gobert, and Anderson played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Towns, Alexander-Walker, Reid, Edwards, and Anderson played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Milton, Reid, Edwards, McDaniels, and Anderson played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Reid, Edwards, McDaniels, Gobert, and Anderson played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Towns, Milton, Reid, Edwards, and Anderson played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Towns, Alexander-Walker, Reid, Edwards, and McDaniels played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Alexander-Walker, Reid, Edwards, Gobert, and Anderson played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
San Antonio Spurs
Osman, Johnson, Champagnie, Wesley, and Barlow played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Johnson, Vassell, Jones, Sochan, and Wembanyama played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Vassell, Wesley, Sochan, Wembanyama, and McDermott played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Johnson, Vassell, Jones, Sochan, and Barlow played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Osman, Johnson, Vassell, Wesley, and Barlow played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Vassell, Wesley, Sochan, Barlow, and McDermott played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Johnson, Vassell, Wesley, Wembanyama, and McDermott played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Vassell, Jones, Sochan, Barlow, and McDermott played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

