SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 10 February 2024

PHX112–113GSW
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 99% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 58 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ GSW winsPHX wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when GSW leads and falls when PHX does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · PHX

Kevin Durant
Devin Booker
Bradley Beal
Grayson Allen
Eric Gordon

Durant · Booker · Beal · Allen · Gordon

Closing lineup · GSW

Jonathan Kuminga
Draymond Green
Andrew Wiggins
Brandin Podziemski
Gary Payton II

Kuminga · Green · Wiggins · Podziemski · Payton

Q1Q2Q3Q4
PHX
Kevin Durant

Kevin Durant

39′ · 0

Devin Booker

Devin Booker

38′ · -3

Bradley Beal

Bradley Beal

34′ · +2

Grayson Allen

Grayson Allen

32′ · +2

Jusuf Nurkic

Jusuf Nurkic

26′ · -4

Eric Gordon

Eric Gordon

23′ · -5

Drew Eubanks

Drew Eubanks

16′ · +3

Royce O'Neale

Royce O'Neale

11′ · +4

Bol Bol

Bol Bol

9′ · +2

Josh Okogie

Josh Okogie

10′ · -6

GSW
Stephen Curry

Stephen Curry

34′ · +10

Jonathan Kuminga

Jonathan Kuminga

34′ · -2

Draymond Green

Draymond Green

29′ · +3

Andrew Wiggins

Andrew Wiggins

28′ · +2

Klay Thompson

Klay Thompson

24′ · -3

Brandin Podziemski

Brandin Podziemski

35′ · +5

Gary Payton II

Gary Payton II

14′ · -2

Lester Quinones

Lester Quinones

19′ · -3

Kevon Looney

Kevon Looney

5′ · +1

Dario Saric

Dario Saric

11′ · -10

Trayce Jackson-Davis

Trayce Jackson-Davis

5′ · +4

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. PHX and GSW.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Phoenix Suns

  • Booker, Allen, Durant, Beal, and Nurkic played 15.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Booker, Allen, Okogie, Durant, and Nurkic played 5.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Booker, O'Neale, Eubanks, Gordon, and Beal played 4.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

Golden State Warriors

  • Kuminga, Podziemski, Curry, Green, and Wiggins played 12.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Kuminga, Curry, Thompson, Green, and Wiggins played 10.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Payton, Quinones, Podziemski, Thompson, and Saric played 4.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Phoenix Suns

  • Eubanks, Bol, Durant, Gordon, and Beal played 4.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Booker, Allen, Durant, Gordon, and Nurkic played 3.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Booker, Allen, Durant, Gordon, and Beal played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Booker, O'Neale, Allen, Eubanks, and Gordon played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • O'Neale, Eubanks, Bol, Durant, and Beal played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Booker, Okogie, Durant, Gordon, and Beal played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • O'Neale, Allen, Eubanks, Bol, and Durant played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Okogie, Durant, Gordon, Beal, and Nurkic played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Booker, Okogie, Gordon, Beal, and Nurkic played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

Golden State Warriors

  • Kuminga, Quinones, Podziemski, Thompson, and Saric played 3.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Kuminga, Jackson-Davis, Quinones, Podziemski, and Thompson played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Looney, Payton, Quinones, Podziemski, and Curry played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Payton, Podziemski, Curry, Green, and Wiggins played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Payton, Podziemski, Curry, Green, and Saric played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Looney, Kuminga, Quinones, Podziemski, and Thompson played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Kuminga, Quinones, Curry, Green, and Wiggins played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Payton, Jackson-Davis, Quinones, Podziemski, and Curry played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
18.064
100% of capacity
Chase Center · San Francisco
Scoring
225
combined points
3.4 below the season average (228.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

16 calls reviewed0 no admitted errors