Win probability changed during the game. · 10 February 2024
It was more exciting than 99% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 58 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when GSW leads and falls when PHX does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · PHX
Durant · Booker · Beal · Allen · Gordon
Closing lineup · GSW
Kuminga · Green · Wiggins · Podziemski · Payton
Kevin Durant
39′ · 0
Devin Booker
38′ · -3
Bradley Beal
34′ · +2
Grayson Allen
32′ · +2
Jusuf Nurkic
26′ · -4
Eric Gordon
23′ · -5
Drew Eubanks
16′ · +3
Royce O'Neale
11′ · +4
Bol Bol
9′ · +2
Josh Okogie
10′ · -6
Stephen Curry
34′ · +10
Jonathan Kuminga
34′ · -2
Draymond Green
29′ · +3
Andrew Wiggins
28′ · +2
Klay Thompson
24′ · -3
Brandin Podziemski
35′ · +5
Gary Payton II
14′ · -2
Lester Quinones
19′ · -3
Kevon Looney
5′ · +1
Dario Saric
11′ · -10
Trayce Jackson-Davis
5′ · +4
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. PHX and GSW.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Phoenix Suns
Booker, Allen, Durant, Beal, and Nurkic played 15.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Booker, Allen, Okogie, Durant, and Nurkic played 5.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Booker, O'Neale, Eubanks, Gordon, and Beal played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Golden State Warriors
Kuminga, Podziemski, Curry, Green, and Wiggins played 12.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Kuminga, Curry, Thompson, Green, and Wiggins played 10.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Payton, Quinones, Podziemski, Thompson, and Saric played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Phoenix Suns
Eubanks, Bol, Durant, Gordon, and Beal played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Booker, Allen, Durant, Gordon, and Nurkic played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Booker, Allen, Durant, Gordon, and Beal played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Booker, O'Neale, Allen, Eubanks, and Gordon played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
O'Neale, Eubanks, Bol, Durant, and Beal played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Booker, Okogie, Durant, Gordon, and Beal played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
O'Neale, Allen, Eubanks, Bol, and Durant played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Okogie, Durant, Gordon, Beal, and Nurkic played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Booker, Okogie, Gordon, Beal, and Nurkic played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Golden State Warriors
Kuminga, Quinones, Podziemski, Thompson, and Saric played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Kuminga, Jackson-Davis, Quinones, Podziemski, and Thompson played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Looney, Payton, Quinones, Podziemski, and Curry played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Payton, Podziemski, Curry, Green, and Wiggins played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Payton, Podziemski, Curry, Green, and Saric played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Looney, Kuminga, Quinones, Podziemski, and Thompson played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Kuminga, Quinones, Curry, Green, and Wiggins played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Payton, Jackson-Davis, Quinones, Podziemski, and Curry played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

