Win probability changed during the game. · 22 March 2024
It was more exciting than 88% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 17 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when SAS leads and falls when MEM does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · MEM
Jackson · Jackson · Aldama · LaRavia · Pippen
Closing lineup · SAS
Vassell · Wembanyama · Jones · Sochan · Johnson
GG Jackson
37′ · -15
Jaren Jackson Jr.
36′ · +7
Santi Aldama
34′ · -6
John Konchar
33′ · +13
Jordan Goodwin
25′ · -9
Jake LaRavia
28′ · +21
Scotty Pippen Jr.
23′ · +11
DeJon Jarreau
12′ · -10
Maozinha Pereira
13′ · -2
Devin Vassell
38′ · -1
Victor Wembanyama
33′ · +15
Tre Jones
32′ · +5
Jeremy Sochan
31′ · +3
Julian Champagnie
17′ · +8
Keldon Johnson
29′ · -9
Malaki Branham
18′ · 0
Zach Collins
15′ · -17
Blake Wesley
10′ · -6
Cedi Osman
17′ · -8
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MEM and SAS.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Memphis Grizzlies
Jackson, Konchar, Aldama, Goodwin, and Jackson played 14.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 13 points.
Jackson, Konchar, Aldama, Pippen, and LaRavia played 6.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 12 points.
Jackson, Konchar, Goodwin, LaRavia, and Jackson played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
San Antonio Spurs
Vassell, Jones, Champagnie, Sochan, and Wembanyama played 16.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Osman, Johnson, Branham, Wesley, and Wembanyama played 6.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Johnson, Vassell, Jones, Sochan, and Wembanyama played 5.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Memphis Grizzlies
Jackson, Konchar, Pippen, LaRavia, and Jackson played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
Aldama, Pippen, Jarreau, Jackson, and Pereira played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Aldama, Jarreau, Goodwin, LaRavia, and Pereira played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Jackson, Aldama, Pippen, LaRavia, and Jackson played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Pippen, Jarreau, LaRavia, Jackson, and Pereira played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Aldama, Jarreau, Goodwin, Jackson, and Pereira played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Aldama, Pippen, LaRavia, Jackson, and Pereira played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
San Antonio Spurs
Collins, Johnson, Vassell, Jones, and Sochan played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Osman, Johnson, Jones, Branham, and Wembanyama played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Collins, Johnson, Vassell, Branham, and Wesley played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Osman, Collins, Johnson, Vassell, and Branham played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Osman, Collins, Vassell, Jones, and Sochan played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Osman, Johnson, Vassell, Branham, and Wembanyama played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Collins, Johnson, Vassell, Branham, and Sochan played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.
