Win probability changed during the game. · 22 April 2024
It was more exciting than 66% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 30 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DEN leads and falls when LAL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · LAL
Russell · Davis · Hachimura · James · Reaves
Closing lineup · DEN
Jokic · Gordon · Murray · Porter · Caldwell-Pope
D'Angelo Russell
39′ · +4
Anthony Davis
39′ · 0
Rui Hachimura
38′ · -7
LeBron James
38′ · +2
Austin Reaves
33′ · +5
Spencer Dinwiddie
10′ · -9
Taurean Prince
22′ · +2
Gabe Vincent
15′ · -6
Jaxson Hayes
6′ · -1
Nikola Jokic
41′ · +1
Aaron Gordon
40′ · -4
Jamal Murray
40′ · -2
Michael Porter Jr.
38′ · -4
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
35′ · -4
Peyton Watson
12′ · +11
Reggie Jackson
8′ · +4
Christian Braun
13′ · +6
Justin Holiday
13′ · +2
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. LAL and DEN.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Los Angeles Lakers
Russell, Hachimura, Reaves, Davis, and James played 17.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Hachimura, Vincent, Reaves, Davis, and James played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Russell, Prince, Vincent, Hayes, and James played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Denver Nuggets
Murray, Porter, Caldwell-Pope, Gordon, and Jokic played 27.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Murray, Braun, Watson, Holiday, and Gordon played 6.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Porter, Watson, Jackson, Caldwell-Pope, and Jokic played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Los Angeles Lakers
Russell, Prince, Hachimura, Reaves, and Davis played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Russell, Prince, Hachimura, Davis, and Dinwiddie played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Hachimura, Reaves, Davis, Dinwiddie, and James played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Russell, Prince, Reaves, Davis, and James played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Russell, Prince, Hachimura, Vincent, and James played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Russell, Prince, Hayes, Dinwiddie, and James played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Russell, Prince, Vincent, Davis, and Dinwiddie played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Russell, Hachimura, Vincent, Davis, and James played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Prince, Hachimura, Vincent, Reaves, and Davis played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Denver Nuggets
Porter, Jackson, Caldwell-Pope, Gordon, and Jokic played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Murray, Porter, Braun, Gordon, and Jokic played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Murray, Braun, Watson, Holiday, and Jokic played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Porter, Jackson, Holiday, Caldwell-Pope, and Jokic played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Braun, Watson, Jackson, Holiday, and Jokic played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Murray, Porter, Braun, Holiday, and Jokic played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

