SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 22 April 2024

LAL99–101DEN
Is it worth watching?
Recommended

It was more exciting than 66% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 30 times

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ DEN winsLAL wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DEN leads and falls when LAL does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · LAL

D'Angelo Russell
Anthony Davis
Rui Hachimura
LeBron James
Austin Reaves

Russell · Davis · Hachimura · James · Reaves

Closing lineup · DEN

Nikola Jokic
Aaron Gordon
Jamal Murray
Michael Porter Jr.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Jokic · Gordon · Murray · Porter · Caldwell-Pope

Q1Q2Q3Q4
LAL
D'Angelo Russell

D'Angelo Russell

39′ · +4

Anthony Davis

Anthony Davis

39′ · 0

Rui Hachimura

Rui Hachimura

38′ · -7

LeBron James

LeBron James

38′ · +2

Austin Reaves

Austin Reaves

33′ · +5

Spencer Dinwiddie

Spencer Dinwiddie

10′ · -9

Taurean Prince

Taurean Prince

22′ · +2

Gabe Vincent

Gabe Vincent

15′ · -6

Jaxson Hayes

Jaxson Hayes

6′ · -1

DEN
Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic

41′ · +1

Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon

40′ · -4

Jamal Murray

Jamal Murray

40′ · -2

Michael Porter Jr.

Michael Porter Jr.

38′ · -4

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

35′ · -4

Peyton Watson

Peyton Watson

12′ · +11

Reggie Jackson

Reggie Jackson

8′ · +4

Christian Braun

Christian Braun

13′ · +6

Justin Holiday

Justin Holiday

13′ · +2

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. LAL and DEN.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Los Angeles Lakers

  • Russell, Hachimura, Reaves, Davis, and James played 17.5 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Hachimura, Vincent, Reaves, Davis, and James played 5.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Russell, Prince, Vincent, Hayes, and James played 4.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

Denver Nuggets

  • Murray, Porter, Caldwell-Pope, Gordon, and Jokic played 27.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Murray, Braun, Watson, Holiday, and Gordon played 6.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Porter, Watson, Jackson, Caldwell-Pope, and Jokic played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Los Angeles Lakers

  • Russell, Prince, Hachimura, Reaves, and Davis played 4.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Russell, Prince, Hachimura, Davis, and Dinwiddie played 3.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Hachimura, Reaves, Davis, Dinwiddie, and James played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Russell, Prince, Reaves, Davis, and James played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Russell, Prince, Hachimura, Vincent, and James played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Russell, Prince, Hayes, Dinwiddie, and James played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Russell, Prince, Vincent, Davis, and Dinwiddie played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Russell, Hachimura, Vincent, Davis, and James played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Prince, Hachimura, Vincent, Reaves, and Davis played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

Denver Nuggets

  • Porter, Jackson, Caldwell-Pope, Gordon, and Jokic played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Murray, Porter, Braun, Gordon, and Jokic played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Murray, Braun, Watson, Holiday, and Jokic played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Porter, Jackson, Holiday, Caldwell-Pope, and Jokic played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Braun, Watson, Jackson, Holiday, and Jokic played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Murray, Porter, Braun, Holiday, and Jokic played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
19.711
101% of capacity
Ball Arena · Denver
Series
Game 2
First round
DEN 4-1
Scoring
200
combined points
11.2 below the season average (211.2)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

18 calls reviewed1 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Defense 3 Second · 01:53.6
Nikola Jokic → Lakers
Jokic (DEN) straddles the lane line and is in the paint for longer than three seconds without imminently actively guarding an opponent.