Win probability changed during the game. · 12 November 2024
It was more exciting than 75% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when BOS leads and falls when ATL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · ATL
Daniels · Johnson · Wallace · Nance · Okongwu
Closing lineup · BOS
White · Tatum · Brown · Holiday · Horford
Dyson Daniels
41′ · -4
Jalen Johnson
39′ · +4
Keaton Wallace
32′ · -6
Zaccharie Risacher
25′ · +12
Clint Capela
17′ · -11
Larry Nance Jr.
27′ · +2
Garrison Mathews
23′ · -6
Onyeka Okongwu
31′ · +15
David Roddy
5′ · -1
Derrick White
38′ · +5
Jayson Tatum
37′ · +4
Jaylen Brown
36′ · 0
Jrue Holiday
29′ · +3
Al Horford
26′ · +3
Payton Pritchard
25′ · -9
Neemias Queta
21′ · -6
Sam Hauser
19′ · -3
Luke Kornet
4′ · +1
Jordan Walsh
4′ · -3
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ATL and BOS.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Atlanta Hawks
Johnson, Daniels, Wallace, Risacher, and Capela played 10.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Nance, Mathews, Okongwu, Johnson, and Daniels played 8.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Nance, Mathews, Okongwu, Daniels, and Risacher played 6.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Boston Celtics
Brown, Tatum, White, Horford, and Holiday played 18.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Brown, Tatum, Queta, Pritchard, and Hauser played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Tatum, White, Pritchard, Hauser, and Horford played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Atlanta Hawks
Nance, Okongwu, Johnson, Daniels, and Wallace played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Okongwu, Johnson, Wallace, Roddy, and Risacher played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Nance, Mathews, Daniels, Wallace, and Capela played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Mathews, Okongwu, Johnson, Daniels, and Wallace played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Nance, Johnson, Daniels, Wallace, and Capela played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Nance, Okongwu, Johnson, Wallace, and Risacher played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Mathews, Johnson, Daniels, Wallace, and Capela played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Boston Celtics
Brown, Queta, Pritchard, Hauser, and Holiday played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Brown, White, Queta, Pritchard, and Hauser played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Brown, Tatum, Queta, Pritchard, and Holiday played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Brown, Tatum, White, Queta, and Pritchard played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Brown, Tatum, White, Queta, and Horford played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
White, Kornet, Pritchard, Walsh, and Holiday played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
White, Kornet, Pritchard, Hauser, and Holiday played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Tatum, White, Queta, Hauser, and Walsh played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

