SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 12 November 2024

ATL117–116BOS
Is it worth watching?
Recommended

It was more exciting than 75% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ BOS winsATL wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when BOS leads and falls when ATL does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · ATL

Dyson Daniels
Jalen Johnson
Keaton Wallace
Larry Nance Jr.
Onyeka Okongwu

Daniels · Johnson · Wallace · Nance · Okongwu

Closing lineup · BOS

Derrick White
Jayson Tatum
Jaylen Brown
Jrue Holiday
Al Horford

White · Tatum · Brown · Holiday · Horford

Q1Q2Q3Q4
ATL
Dyson Daniels

Dyson Daniels

41′ · -4

Jalen Johnson

Jalen Johnson

39′ · +4

Keaton Wallace

Keaton Wallace

32′ · -6

Zaccharie Risacher

Zaccharie Risacher

25′ · +12

Clint Capela

Clint Capela

17′ · -11

Larry Nance Jr.

Larry Nance Jr.

27′ · +2

Garrison Mathews

Garrison Mathews

23′ · -6

Onyeka Okongwu

Onyeka Okongwu

31′ · +15

David Roddy

David Roddy

5′ · -1

BOS
Derrick White

Derrick White

38′ · +5

Jayson Tatum

Jayson Tatum

37′ · +4

Jaylen Brown

Jaylen Brown

36′ · 0

Jrue Holiday

Jrue Holiday

29′ · +3

Al Horford

Al Horford

26′ · +3

Payton Pritchard

Payton Pritchard

25′ · -9

Neemias Queta

Neemias Queta

21′ · -6

Sam Hauser

Sam Hauser

19′ · -3

Luke Kornet

Luke Kornet

4′ · +1

Jordan Walsh

Jordan Walsh

4′ · -3

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ATL and BOS.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Atlanta Hawks

  • Johnson, Daniels, Wallace, Risacher, and Capela played 10.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Nance, Mathews, Okongwu, Johnson, and Daniels played 8.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Nance, Mathews, Okongwu, Daniels, and Risacher played 6.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

Boston Celtics

  • Brown, Tatum, White, Horford, and Holiday played 18.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Brown, Tatum, Queta, Pritchard, and Hauser played 4.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Tatum, White, Pritchard, Hauser, and Horford played 4.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Atlanta Hawks

  • Nance, Okongwu, Johnson, Daniels, and Wallace played 5.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Okongwu, Johnson, Wallace, Roddy, and Risacher played 4.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Nance, Mathews, Daniels, Wallace, and Capela played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.

  • Mathews, Okongwu, Johnson, Daniels, and Wallace played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Nance, Johnson, Daniels, Wallace, and Capela played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Nance, Okongwu, Johnson, Wallace, and Risacher played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Mathews, Johnson, Daniels, Wallace, and Capela played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

Boston Celtics

  • Brown, Queta, Pritchard, Hauser, and Holiday played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Brown, White, Queta, Pritchard, and Hauser played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Brown, Tatum, Queta, Pritchard, and Holiday played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Brown, Tatum, White, Queta, and Pritchard played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Brown, Tatum, White, Queta, and Horford played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • White, Kornet, Pritchard, Walsh, and Holiday played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • White, Kornet, Pritchard, Hauser, and Holiday played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Tatum, White, Queta, Hauser, and Walsh played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
19.156
102.9% of capacity
TD Garden · Boston
Scoring
233
combined points
5.3 above the season average (227.7)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

13 calls reviewed1 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Offensive · 00:58.4
Al Horford → Jalen Johnson
Horford (BOS) extends his arms into Johnson's (ATL) path and delivers contact.