Win probability changed during the game. · 30 October 2024
It was more exciting than 80% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 29 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when IND leads and falls when BOS does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · BOS
Brown · Tatum · White · Pritchard · Hauser
Closing lineup · IND
Haliburton · Siakam · Mathurin · Toppin · Sheppard
Jaylen Brown
43′ · -13
Jayson Tatum
43′ · -7
Derrick White
37′ · -7
Jrue Holiday
25′ · -19
Al Horford
19′ · -12
Payton Pritchard
39′ · +8
Luke Kornet
16′ · -3
Sam Hauser
14′ · +12
Jordan Walsh
8′ · +6
Xavier Tillman
8′ · +2
Neemias Queta
14′ · +18
Tyrese Haliburton
40′ · +9
Pascal Siakam
38′ · +5
Aaron Nesmith
30′ · +10
Isaiah Jackson
25′ · +8
Andrew Nembhard
5′ · +3
Bennedict Mathurin
43′ · +3
Obi Toppin
33′ · -12
T.J. McConnell
22′ · -7
Jarace Walker
8′ · -1
Ben Sheppard
21′ · -3
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. BOS and IND.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Boston Celtics
Brown, Tatum, White, Horford, and Holiday played 13.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Brown, Tatum, White, Queta, and Pritchard played 10.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
Tatum, Kornet, Pritchard, Hauser, and Holiday played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Indiana Pacers
Siakam, Haliburton, Nesmith, Jackson, and Mathurin played 7.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Siakam, Toppin, Haliburton, Mathurin, and McConnell played 5.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Siakam, Nembhard, Haliburton, Nesmith, and Jackson played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Boston Celtics
Brown, White, Pritchard, Hauser, and Horford played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Brown, Queta, Pritchard, Tillman, and Walsh played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Tatum, White, Kornet, Pritchard, and Hauser played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Brown, Tatum, White, Kornet, and Pritchard played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Brown, Tatum, Pritchard, Tillman, and Holiday played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Brown, Tatum, Kornet, Pritchard, and Holiday played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Brown, White, Pritchard, Walsh, and Horford played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Tatum, Kornet, Pritchard, Hauser, and Walsh played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Brown, Tatum, White, Tillman, and Holiday played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Indiana Pacers
Siakam, Toppin, Haliburton, Nesmith, and Sheppard played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Siakam, Toppin, Mathurin, Sheppard, and McConnell played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Siakam, Nesmith, Jackson, Mathurin, and McConnell played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Siakam, Toppin, Haliburton, Mathurin, and Sheppard played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Toppin, Haliburton, Jackson, Mathurin, and Sheppard played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Toppin, Haliburton, Mathurin, Walker, and McConnell played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Toppin, Haliburton, Nesmith, Mathurin, and Walker played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Siakam, Toppin, Nesmith, Mathurin, and McConnell played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Siakam, Toppin, Haliburton, Nesmith, and Mathurin played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Toppin, Haliburton, Mathurin, Walker, and Sheppard played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Toppin, Haliburton, Nesmith, Jackson, and Mathurin played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Nesmith, Jackson, Mathurin, Sheppard, and McConnell played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Haliburton, Jackson, Mathurin, Walker, and Sheppard played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

