SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 30 October 2024

BOS132–135IND
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 80% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 29 times

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ IND winsBOS wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when IND leads and falls when BOS does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · BOS

Jaylen Brown
Jayson Tatum
Derrick White
Payton Pritchard
Sam Hauser

Brown · Tatum · White · Pritchard · Hauser

Closing lineup · IND

Tyrese Haliburton
Pascal Siakam
Bennedict Mathurin
Obi Toppin
Ben Sheppard

Haliburton · Siakam · Mathurin · Toppin · Sheppard

Q1Q2Q3Q4OT1
BOS
Jaylen Brown

Jaylen Brown

43′ · -13

Jayson Tatum

Jayson Tatum

43′ · -7

Derrick White

Derrick White

37′ · -7

Jrue Holiday

Jrue Holiday

25′ · -19

Al Horford

Al Horford

19′ · -12

Payton Pritchard

Payton Pritchard

39′ · +8

Luke Kornet

Luke Kornet

16′ · -3

Sam Hauser

Sam Hauser

14′ · +12

Jordan Walsh

Jordan Walsh

8′ · +6

Xavier Tillman

Xavier Tillman

8′ · +2

Neemias Queta

Neemias Queta

14′ · +18

IND
Tyrese Haliburton

Tyrese Haliburton

40′ · +9

Pascal Siakam

Pascal Siakam

38′ · +5

Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith

30′ · +10

Isaiah Jackson

Isaiah Jackson

25′ · +8

Andrew Nembhard

Andrew Nembhard

5′ · +3

Bennedict Mathurin

Bennedict Mathurin

43′ · +3

Obi Toppin

Obi Toppin

33′ · -12

T.J. McConnell

T.J. McConnell

22′ · -7

Jarace Walker

Jarace Walker

8′ · -1

Ben Sheppard

Ben Sheppard

21′ · -3

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. BOS and IND.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Boston Celtics

  • Brown, Tatum, White, Horford, and Holiday played 13.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Brown, Tatum, White, Queta, and Pritchard played 10.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 10 points.

  • Tatum, Kornet, Pritchard, Hauser, and Holiday played 4.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

Indiana Pacers

  • Siakam, Haliburton, Nesmith, Jackson, and Mathurin played 7.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Siakam, Toppin, Haliburton, Mathurin, and McConnell played 5.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Siakam, Nembhard, Haliburton, Nesmith, and Jackson played 5.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Boston Celtics

  • Brown, White, Pritchard, Hauser, and Horford played 3.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Brown, Queta, Pritchard, Tillman, and Walsh played 3.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Tatum, White, Kornet, Pritchard, and Hauser played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Brown, Tatum, White, Kornet, and Pritchard played 3.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Brown, Tatum, Pritchard, Tillman, and Holiday played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Brown, Tatum, Kornet, Pritchard, and Holiday played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Brown, White, Pritchard, Walsh, and Horford played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Tatum, Kornet, Pritchard, Hauser, and Walsh played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Brown, Tatum, White, Tillman, and Holiday played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

Indiana Pacers

  • Siakam, Toppin, Haliburton, Nesmith, and Sheppard played 4.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Siakam, Toppin, Mathurin, Sheppard, and McConnell played 4.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Siakam, Nesmith, Jackson, Mathurin, and McConnell played 3.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Siakam, Toppin, Haliburton, Mathurin, and Sheppard played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Toppin, Haliburton, Jackson, Mathurin, and Sheppard played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Toppin, Haliburton, Mathurin, Walker, and McConnell played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Toppin, Haliburton, Nesmith, Mathurin, and Walker played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Siakam, Toppin, Nesmith, Mathurin, and McConnell played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Siakam, Toppin, Haliburton, Nesmith, and Mathurin played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Toppin, Haliburton, Mathurin, Walker, and Sheppard played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Toppin, Haliburton, Nesmith, Jackson, and Mathurin played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Nesmith, Jackson, Mathurin, Sheppard, and McConnell played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Haliburton, Jackson, Mathurin, Walker, and Sheppard played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
17.274
96.4% of capacity
Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Indianapolis
Scoring
267
combined points
39.3 above the season average (227.7)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

38 calls reviewed2 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Loose Ball · 01:08.9
Jaylen Brown → Bennedict Mathurin
Brown (BOS) wraps his arm around Mathurin's (IND) leg and pulls him, affecting his ability to pursue the loose ball.
Turnover: Traveling · 01:59.0
Pascal Siakam → Celtics
White (BOS) reaches in and initiates illegal contact to Siakam's (IND) wrist, causing him to slide his pivot foot. A foul should have been called on White instead of a traveling violation.