SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 2 November 2024

CLE114–113MIL
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 93% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 19 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ MIL winsCLE wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIL leads and falls when CLE does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · CLE

Evan Mobley
Jarrett Allen
Dean Wade
Isaac Okoro
Georges Niang

Mobley · Allen · Wade · Okoro · Niang

Closing lineup · MIL

Damian Lillard
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Brook Lopez
Taurean Prince
Bobby Portis

Lillard · Antetokounmpo · Lopez · Prince · Portis

Q1Q2Q3Q4
CLE
Donovan Mitchell

Donovan Mitchell

35′ · -8

Darius Garland

Darius Garland

34′ · -2

Evan Mobley

Evan Mobley

32′ · -2

Jarrett Allen

Jarrett Allen

32′ · -12

Dean Wade

Dean Wade

23′ · +6

Isaac Okoro

Isaac Okoro

28′ · +12

Sam Merrill

Sam Merrill

22′ · +6

Georges Niang

Georges Niang

21′ · -3

Ty Jerome

Ty Jerome

9′ · +2

Craig Porter Jr.

Craig Porter Jr.

5′ · +6

MIL
Damian Lillard

Damian Lillard

39′ · +3

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis Antetokounmpo

39′ · +5

Brook Lopez

Brook Lopez

35′ · +10

Gary Trent Jr.

Gary Trent Jr.

34′ · +8

Taurean Prince

Taurean Prince

32′ · +4

Andre Jackson Jr.

Andre Jackson Jr.

15′ · -8

Bobby Portis

Bobby Portis

20′ · -16

Delon Wright

Delon Wright

17′ · -5

Pat Connaughton

Pat Connaughton

10′ · -6

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. CLE and MIL.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Cleveland Cavaliers

  • Mitchell, Allen, Garland, Wade, and Mobley played 11.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 13 points.

  • Niang, Mitchell, Allen, Jerome, and Merrill played 6.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Niang, Garland, Okoro, Merrill, and Mobley played 6.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

Milwaukee Bucks

  • Prince, Trent, Lopez, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 24.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 16 points.

  • Wright, Portis, Jackson, Lopez, and Lillard played 4.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Wright, Portis, Connaughton, Jackson, and Antetokounmpo played 4.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Cleveland Cavaliers

  • Mitchell, Allen, Garland, Okoro, and Mobley played 4.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Garland, Wade, Okoro, Mobley, and Porter played 3.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Niang, Mitchell, Allen, Okoro, and Merrill played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Niang, Mitchell, Okoro, Merrill, and Mobley played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Garland, Wade, Okoro, Merrill, and Mobley played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Niang, Mitchell, Allen, Garland, and Okoro played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Mitchell, Allen, Jerome, Wade, and Porter played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Mitchell, Allen, Garland, Wade, and Okoro played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Allen, Garland, Wade, Okoro, and Merrill played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

Milwaukee Bucks

  • Wright, Portis, Connaughton, Trent, and Antetokounmpo played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Wright, Portis, Jackson, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Portis, Prince, Trent, Lopez, and Lillard played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Portis, Prince, Jackson, Lopez, and Lillard played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Wright, Prince, Trent, Jackson, and Antetokounmpo played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Portis, Connaughton, Trent, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
17.341
100% of capacity
Fiserv Forum · Milwaukee
Scoring
227
combined points
0.7 below the season average (227.7)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

14 calls reviewed1 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Shooting · 01:40.2
Giannis Antetokounmpo → Evan Mobley
Antetokounmpo (MIL) steps laterally and initiates hip to body contact with Mobley (CLE), affecting his drive to the basket and shot attempt.