Win probability changed during the game. · 2 November 2024
It was more exciting than 93% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 19 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIL leads and falls when CLE does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · CLE
Mobley · Allen · Wade · Okoro · Niang
Closing lineup · MIL
Lillard · Antetokounmpo · Lopez · Prince · Portis
Donovan Mitchell
35′ · -8
Darius Garland
34′ · -2
Evan Mobley
32′ · -2
Jarrett Allen
32′ · -12
Dean Wade
23′ · +6
Isaac Okoro
28′ · +12
Sam Merrill
22′ · +6
Georges Niang
21′ · -3
Ty Jerome
9′ · +2
Craig Porter Jr.
5′ · +6
Damian Lillard
39′ · +3
Giannis Antetokounmpo
39′ · +5
Brook Lopez
35′ · +10
Gary Trent Jr.
34′ · +8
Taurean Prince
32′ · +4
Andre Jackson Jr.
15′ · -8
Bobby Portis
20′ · -16
Delon Wright
17′ · -5
Pat Connaughton
10′ · -6
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. CLE and MIL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Mitchell, Allen, Garland, Wade, and Mobley played 11.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 13 points.
Niang, Mitchell, Allen, Jerome, and Merrill played 6.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Niang, Garland, Okoro, Merrill, and Mobley played 6.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Milwaukee Bucks
Prince, Trent, Lopez, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 24.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 16 points.
Wright, Portis, Jackson, Lopez, and Lillard played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Wright, Portis, Connaughton, Jackson, and Antetokounmpo played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Cleveland Cavaliers
Mitchell, Allen, Garland, Okoro, and Mobley played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Garland, Wade, Okoro, Mobley, and Porter played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Niang, Mitchell, Allen, Okoro, and Merrill played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Niang, Mitchell, Okoro, Merrill, and Mobley played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Garland, Wade, Okoro, Merrill, and Mobley played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Niang, Mitchell, Allen, Garland, and Okoro played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Mitchell, Allen, Jerome, Wade, and Porter played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Mitchell, Allen, Garland, Wade, and Okoro played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Allen, Garland, Wade, Okoro, and Merrill played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Milwaukee Bucks
Wright, Portis, Connaughton, Trent, and Antetokounmpo played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Wright, Portis, Jackson, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Portis, Prince, Trent, Lopez, and Lillard played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Portis, Prince, Jackson, Lopez, and Lillard played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Wright, Prince, Trent, Jackson, and Antetokounmpo played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Portis, Connaughton, Trent, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

