SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 6 November 2024

DET107–108CHA
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 94% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 40 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ CHA winsDET wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when CHA leads and falls when DET does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · DET

Jaden Ivey
Tobias Harris
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Malik Beasley
Ronald Holland II

Ivey · Harris · Hardaway · Beasley · Holland

Closing lineup · CHA

Miles Bridges
LaMelo Ball
Brandon Miller
Josh Green
Grant Williams

Bridges · Ball · Miller · Green · Williams

Q1Q2Q3Q4
DET
Cade Cunningham

Cade Cunningham

38′ · -1

Jaden Ivey

Jaden Ivey

34′ · -14

Tobias Harris

Tobias Harris

32′ · -8

Tim Hardaway Jr.

Tim Hardaway Jr.

31′ · -8

Jalen Duren

Jalen Duren

8′ · +3

Malik Beasley

Malik Beasley

24′ · +12

Isaiah Stewart

Isaiah Stewart

26′ · -7

Simone Fontecchio

Simone Fontecchio

20′ · +6

Ronald Holland II

Ronald Holland II

16′ · +12

Paul Reed

Paul Reed

12′ · 0

CHA
Miles Bridges

Miles Bridges

35′ · +6

LaMelo Ball

LaMelo Ball

32′ · -2

Brandon Miller

Brandon Miller

29′ · +1

Josh Green

Josh Green

24′ · -5

Taj Gibson

Taj Gibson

15′ · -4

Grant Williams

Grant Williams

27′ · +9

Cody Martin

Cody Martin

28′ · +3

Tre Mann

Tre Mann

21′ · +4

Tidjane Salaun

Tidjane Salaun

12′ · -6

Seth Curry

Seth Curry

11′ · +3

Moussa Diabate

Moussa Diabate

7′ · -4

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DET and CHA.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Detroit Pistons

  • Stewart, Cunningham, Ivey, Harris, and Hardaway played 9.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Cunningham, Ivey, Duren, Harris, and Hardaway played 5.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Beasley, Stewart, Cunningham, Fontecchio, and Holland played 5.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

Charlotte Hornets

  • Bridges, Ball, Green, Miller, and Gibson played 9.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Martin, Williams, Mann, Salaun, and Curry played 7.5 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Bridges, Martin, Williams, Mann, and Miller played 6.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Detroit Pistons

  • Beasley, Stewart, Ivey, Fontecchio, and Holland played 5.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Reed, Cunningham, Ivey, Harris, and Hardaway played 3.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Beasley, Reed, Cunningham, Fontecchio, and Holland played 3.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Beasley, Reed, Cunningham, Harris, and Hardaway played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Beasley, Stewart, Cunningham, Ivey, and Fontecchio played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Reed, Ivey, Fontecchio, Harris, and Hardaway played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Beasley, Cunningham, Ivey, Harris, and Hardaway played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Stewart, Ivey, Holland, Harris, and Hardaway played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Beasley, Cunningham, Duren, Harris, and Hardaway played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

Charlotte Hornets

  • Bridges, Martin, Williams, Ball, and Miller played 3.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Bridges, Ball, Green, Diabate, and Miller played 3.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Bridges, Williams, Ball, Green, and Miller played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Bridges, Ball, Green, Gibson, and Curry played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Martin, Ball, Green, Salaun, and Gibson played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Williams, Ball, Mann, Salaun, and Curry played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Bridges, Martin, Ball, Mann, and Diabate played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Bridges, Martin, Williams, Ball, and Mann played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Bridges, Martin, Ball, Green, and Gibson played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Bridges, Williams, Green, Mann, and Miller played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
13.247
69.4% of capacity
Spectrum Center · Charlotte
Scoring
215
combined points
12.7 below the season average (227.7)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

24 calls reviewed3 errors admitted by the NBA
Turnover: 3 Second Violation · 00:45.0
Isaiah Stewart → Hornets
Stewart (DET) is in the lane for longer than three seconds.
Foul: Shooting · 01:14.3
Jaden Ivey → LaMelo Ball
Ivey (DET) reaches in and makes contact with Ball's (CHA) wrist after his gather, which affects his driving shot attempt in the paint.
Foul: Defense 3 Second · 01:27.8
Isaiah Stewart → Hornets
Stewart (DET) fails to the clear the lane and is in the paint for longer than three seconds without imminently actively guarding an opponent.