Win probability changed during the game. · 6 November 2024
It was more exciting than 94% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 40 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when CHA leads and falls when DET does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · DET
Ivey · Harris · Hardaway · Beasley · Holland
Closing lineup · CHA
Bridges · Ball · Miller · Green · Williams
Cade Cunningham
38′ · -1
Jaden Ivey
34′ · -14
Tobias Harris
32′ · -8
Tim Hardaway Jr.
31′ · -8
Jalen Duren
8′ · +3
Malik Beasley
24′ · +12
Isaiah Stewart
26′ · -7
Simone Fontecchio
20′ · +6
Ronald Holland II
16′ · +12
Paul Reed
12′ · 0
Miles Bridges
35′ · +6
LaMelo Ball
32′ · -2
Brandon Miller
29′ · +1
Josh Green
24′ · -5
Taj Gibson
15′ · -4
Grant Williams
27′ · +9
Cody Martin
28′ · +3
Tre Mann
21′ · +4
Tidjane Salaun
12′ · -6
Seth Curry
11′ · +3
Moussa Diabate
7′ · -4
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DET and CHA.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Detroit Pistons
Stewart, Cunningham, Ivey, Harris, and Hardaway played 9.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Cunningham, Ivey, Duren, Harris, and Hardaway played 5.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Beasley, Stewart, Cunningham, Fontecchio, and Holland played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Charlotte Hornets
Bridges, Ball, Green, Miller, and Gibson played 9.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Martin, Williams, Mann, Salaun, and Curry played 7.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Bridges, Martin, Williams, Mann, and Miller played 6.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Detroit Pistons
Beasley, Stewart, Ivey, Fontecchio, and Holland played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Reed, Cunningham, Ivey, Harris, and Hardaway played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Beasley, Reed, Cunningham, Fontecchio, and Holland played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Beasley, Reed, Cunningham, Harris, and Hardaway played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Beasley, Stewart, Cunningham, Ivey, and Fontecchio played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Reed, Ivey, Fontecchio, Harris, and Hardaway played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Beasley, Cunningham, Ivey, Harris, and Hardaway played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Stewart, Ivey, Holland, Harris, and Hardaway played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Beasley, Cunningham, Duren, Harris, and Hardaway played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Charlotte Hornets
Bridges, Martin, Williams, Ball, and Miller played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Bridges, Ball, Green, Diabate, and Miller played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Bridges, Williams, Ball, Green, and Miller played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Bridges, Ball, Green, Gibson, and Curry played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Martin, Ball, Green, Salaun, and Gibson played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Williams, Ball, Mann, Salaun, and Curry played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Bridges, Martin, Ball, Mann, and Diabate played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Bridges, Martin, Williams, Ball, and Mann played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Bridges, Martin, Ball, Green, and Gibson played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Bridges, Williams, Green, Mann, and Miller played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

