Win probability changed during the game. · 13 November 2024
It was more exciting than 74% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 21 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when NYK leads and falls when CHI does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · CHI
LaVine · White · Vucevic · Williams · Dosunmu
Closing lineup · NYK
Bridges · Towns · Anunoby · Hart · Brunson
Zach LaVine
36′ · +21
Coby White
36′ · -8
Nikola Vucevic
34′ · +14
Patrick Williams
33′ · +1
Josh Giddey
28′ · +19
Ayo Dosunmu
25′ · -4
Matas Buzelis
12′ · -10
Jalen Smith
14′ · -13
Dalen Terry
10′ · -23
Julian Phillips
11′ · +8
Mikal Bridges
43′ · +2
Karl-Anthony Towns
39′ · +4
OG Anunoby
36′ · -20
Josh Hart
34′ · +9
Jalen Brunson
34′ · -13
Miles McBride
23′ · +10
Jericho Sims
9′ · -5
Cameron Payne
17′ · +11
Matt Ryan
5′ · -3
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. CHI and NYK.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Chicago Bulls
White, Williams, Giddey, Vucevic, and LaVine played 13.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 19 points.
Dosunmu, Giddey, Phillips, Vucevic, and LaVine played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Williams, Dosunmu, Phillips, Vucevic, and LaVine played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
New York Knicks
Towns, Anunoby, Hart, Bridges, and Brunson played 17.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Towns, Payne, Hart, Bridges, and McBride played 6.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 16 points.
Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, McBride, and Sims played 5.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Chicago Bulls
White, Williams, Dosunmu, Vucevic, and LaVine played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
White, Smith, Dosunmu, Terry, and Buzelis played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
White, Williams, Dosunmu, Terry, and Vucevic played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
White, Williams, Smith, Giddey, and LaVine played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Dosunmu, Giddey, Buzelis, Vucevic, and LaVine played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Williams, Smith, Dosunmu, Giddey, and LaVine played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
White, Dosunmu, Buzelis, Vucevic, and LaVine played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
White, Williams, Smith, Giddey, and Phillips played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
White, Williams, Terry, Buzelis, and Vucevic played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
New York Knicks
Anunoby, Hart, Bridges, Brunson, and Sims played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Towns, Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, and McBride played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Towns, Payne, Hart, Ryan, and McBride played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Towns, Payne, Anunoby, Ryan, and McBride played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Towns, Payne, Anunoby, Bridges, and Brunson played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Towns, Payne, Anunoby, Bridges, and McBride played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Towns, Payne, Hart, Bridges, and Brunson played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

