Win probability changed during the game. · 25 November 2024
It was more exciting than 98% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 54 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DET leads and falls when TOR does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · TOR
Barnes · Barrett · Mitchell · Agbaji · Mogbo
Closing lineup · DET
Harris · Ivey · Hardaway · Beasley · Fontecchio
Scottie Barnes
37′ · -2
RJ Barrett
34′ · -16
Davion Mitchell
31′ · -13
Jakob Poeltl
28′ · -13
Ochai Agbaji
24′ · -26
Chris Boucher
22′ · +11
Bruno Fernando
14′ · +13
Jamison Battle
22′ · +20
Jamal Shead
17′ · +11
Jonathan Mogbo
12′ · +5
Tobias Harris
37′ · +10
Jaden Ivey
36′ · +25
Tim Hardaway Jr.
35′ · +12
Malik Beasley
33′ · +10
Jalen Duren
25′ · +16
Isaiah Stewart
23′ · -16
Ausar Thompson
16′ · -9
Marcus Sasser
14′ · -22
Ronald Holland II
11′ · -2
Simone Fontecchio
9′ · -14
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. TOR and DET.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Toronto Raptors
Poeltl, Barrett, Agbaji, Mitchell, and Barnes played 13.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 15 points.
Boucher, Fernando, Barrett, Shead, and Battle played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Boucher, Fernando, Barnes, Shead, and Battle played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Detroit Pistons
Beasley, Ivey, Duren, Harris, and Hardaway played 14.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 18 points.
Ivey, Duren, Thompson, Harris, and Hardaway played 6.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Beasley, Stewart, Ivey, Holland, and Hardaway played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Toronto Raptors
Poeltl, Barrett, Mitchell, Barnes, and Battle played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Boucher, Agbaji, Barnes, Shead, and Mogbo played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Poeltl, Barrett, Mitchell, Barnes, and Mogbo played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Poeltl, Barrett, Agbaji, Barnes, and Shead played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Boucher, Fernando, Barrett, Agbaji, and Mitchell played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Poeltl, Boucher, Mitchell, Barnes, and Battle played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Poeltl, Boucher, Barrett, Agbaji, and Mitchell played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Boucher, Barnes, Shead, Mogbo, and Battle played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Boucher, Fernando, Barrett, Mitchell, and Battle played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Poeltl, Mitchell, Barnes, Mogbo, and Battle played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Fernando, Mitchell, Barnes, Mogbo, and Battle played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Poeltl, Barrett, Agbaji, Mitchell, and Mogbo played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Detroit Pistons
Beasley, Stewart, Ivey, Thompson, and Harris played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Stewart, Sasser, Fontecchio, Thompson, and Holland played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Stewart, Ivey, Holland, Harris, and Hardaway played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Beasley, Stewart, Sasser, Fontecchio, and Harris played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Beasley, Stewart, Sasser, Fontecchio, and Holland played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Beasley, Duren, Sasser, Harris, and Hardaway played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Beasley, Stewart, Sasser, Thompson, and Harris played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Stewart, Ivey, Thompson, Harris, and Hardaway played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Stewart, Sasser, Holland, Harris, and Hardaway played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

