SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 25 November 2024

TOR100–102DET
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 98% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 54 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ DET winsTOR wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DET leads and falls when TOR does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · TOR

Scottie Barnes
RJ Barrett
Davion Mitchell
Ochai Agbaji
Jonathan Mogbo

Barnes · Barrett · Mitchell · Agbaji · Mogbo

Closing lineup · DET

Tobias Harris
Jaden Ivey
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Malik Beasley
Simone Fontecchio

Harris · Ivey · Hardaway · Beasley · Fontecchio

Q1Q2Q3Q4
TOR
Scottie Barnes

Scottie Barnes

37′ · -2

RJ Barrett

RJ Barrett

34′ · -16

Davion Mitchell

Davion Mitchell

31′ · -13

Jakob Poeltl

Jakob Poeltl

28′ · -13

Ochai Agbaji

Ochai Agbaji

24′ · -26

Chris Boucher

Chris Boucher

22′ · +11

Bruno Fernando

Bruno Fernando

14′ · +13

Jamison Battle

Jamison Battle

22′ · +20

Jamal Shead

Jamal Shead

17′ · +11

Jonathan Mogbo

Jonathan Mogbo

12′ · +5

DET
Tobias Harris

Tobias Harris

37′ · +10

Jaden Ivey

Jaden Ivey

36′ · +25

Tim Hardaway Jr.

Tim Hardaway Jr.

35′ · +12

Malik Beasley

Malik Beasley

33′ · +10

Jalen Duren

Jalen Duren

25′ · +16

Isaiah Stewart

Isaiah Stewart

23′ · -16

Ausar Thompson

Ausar Thompson

16′ · -9

Marcus Sasser

Marcus Sasser

14′ · -22

Ronald Holland II

Ronald Holland II

11′ · -2

Simone Fontecchio

Simone Fontecchio

9′ · -14

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. TOR and DET.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Toronto Raptors

  • Poeltl, Barrett, Agbaji, Mitchell, and Barnes played 13.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 15 points.

  • Boucher, Fernando, Barrett, Shead, and Battle played 4.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Boucher, Fernando, Barnes, Shead, and Battle played 4.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

Detroit Pistons

  • Beasley, Ivey, Duren, Harris, and Hardaway played 14.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 18 points.

  • Ivey, Duren, Thompson, Harris, and Hardaway played 6.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Beasley, Stewart, Ivey, Holland, and Hardaway played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Toronto Raptors

  • Poeltl, Barrett, Mitchell, Barnes, and Battle played 4.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Boucher, Agbaji, Barnes, Shead, and Mogbo played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Poeltl, Barrett, Mitchell, Barnes, and Mogbo played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Poeltl, Barrett, Agbaji, Barnes, and Shead played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Boucher, Fernando, Barrett, Agbaji, and Mitchell played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Poeltl, Boucher, Mitchell, Barnes, and Battle played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Poeltl, Boucher, Barrett, Agbaji, and Mitchell played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Boucher, Barnes, Shead, Mogbo, and Battle played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Boucher, Fernando, Barrett, Mitchell, and Battle played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Poeltl, Mitchell, Barnes, Mogbo, and Battle played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Fernando, Mitchell, Barnes, Mogbo, and Battle played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Poeltl, Barrett, Agbaji, Mitchell, and Mogbo played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

Detroit Pistons

  • Beasley, Stewart, Ivey, Thompson, and Harris played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Stewart, Sasser, Fontecchio, Thompson, and Holland played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Stewart, Ivey, Holland, Harris, and Hardaway played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Beasley, Stewart, Sasser, Fontecchio, and Harris played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Beasley, Stewart, Sasser, Fontecchio, and Holland played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Beasley, Duren, Sasser, Harris, and Hardaway played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Beasley, Stewart, Sasser, Thompson, and Harris played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Stewart, Ivey, Thompson, Harris, and Hardaway played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Stewart, Sasser, Holland, Harris, and Hardaway played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
18.421
90.6% of capacity
Little Caesars Arena · Detroit
Scoring
202
combined points
25.7 below the season average (227.7)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

13 calls reviewed0 no admitted errors