SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 6 December 2024

LAL132–134ATL
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 99% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 44 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ ATL winsLAL wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when ATL leads and falls when LAL does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · LAL

LeBron James
Anthony Davis
Rui Hachimura
Gabe Vincent
Cam Reddish

James · Davis · Hachimura · Vincent · Reddish

Closing lineup · ATL

Trae Young
Jalen Johnson
Clint Capela
De'Andre Hunter
Bogdan Bogdanovic

Young · Johnson · Capela · Hunter · Bogdanovic

Q1Q2Q3Q4OT1
LAL
LeBron James

LeBron James

43′ · +3

Anthony Davis

Anthony Davis

42′ · +6

Rui Hachimura

Rui Hachimura

41′ · +5

Gabe Vincent

Gabe Vincent

34′ · +4

Dalton Knecht

Dalton Knecht

28′ · -2

Max Christie

Max Christie

31′ · -7

D'Angelo Russell

D'Angelo Russell

21′ · -4

Cam Reddish

Cam Reddish

21′ · -8

Armel Traore

Armel Traore

4′ · -7

ATL
Trae Young

Trae Young

42′ · -6

Dyson Daniels

Dyson Daniels

36′ · -9

Jalen Johnson

Jalen Johnson

35′ · +6

Clint Capela

Clint Capela

24′ · 0

Zaccharie Risacher

Zaccharie Risacher

22′ · -2

De'Andre Hunter

De'Andre Hunter

34′ · -5

Onyeka Okongwu

Onyeka Okongwu

29′ · +2

Bogdan Bogdanovic

Bogdan Bogdanovic

29′ · +18

Vit Krejci

Vit Krejci

14′ · +6

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. LAL and ATL.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Los Angeles Lakers

  • Hachimura, Vincent, Knecht, Davis, and James played 13.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Hachimura, Vincent, Christie, Davis, and James played 5.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Russell, Hachimura, Christie, Knecht, and Davis played 5.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

Atlanta Hawks

  • Young, Hunter, Okongwu, Johnson, and Daniels played 8.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Okongwu, Krejci, Johnson, Risacher, and Bogdanovic played 7.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 11 points.

  • Young, Hunter, Daniels, Capela, and Bogdanovic played 6.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 10 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Los Angeles Lakers

  • Russell, Hachimura, Reddish, Christie, and James played 5.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Hachimura, Vincent, Reddish, Davis, and James played 3.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Vincent, Reddish, Christie, Traore, and James played 3.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Russell, Reddish, Christie, Knecht, and Davis played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Russell, Reddish, Christie, Davis, and James played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Hachimura, Vincent, Reddish, Knecht, and James played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Vincent, Christie, Knecht, Davis, and James played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Russell, Hachimura, Vincent, Davis, and James played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Hachimura, Vincent, Christie, Knecht, and Davis played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Russell, Hachimura, Christie, Davis, and James played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

Atlanta Hawks

  • Young, Johnson, Daniels, Risacher, and Capela played 5.8 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Young, Hunter, Johnson, Capela, and Bogdanovic played 4.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Young, Hunter, Johnson, Daniels, and Capela played 4.3 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Hunter, Okongwu, Krejci, Johnson, and Bogdanovic played 3.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Young, Hunter, Okongwu, Daniels, and Risacher played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Young, Hunter, Daniels, Risacher, and Capela played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 13 points.

  • Young, Okongwu, Daniels, Risacher, and Bogdanovic played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Young, Okongwu, Krejci, Daniels, and Bogdanovic played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Young, Hunter, Okongwu, Daniels, and Bogdanovic played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Young, Okongwu, Krejci, Risacher, and Bogdanovic played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
18.040
105.8% of capacity
State Farm Arena · Atlanta
Scoring
266
combined points
38.3 above the season average (227.7)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

29 calls reviewed2 errors admitted by the NBA
Turnover: Traveling · 00:15.0
LeBron James → Hawks
James (LAL) leaves his feet to pass and his right foot returns to the floor while he is still in possession of the ball.
Foul: Defense 3 Second · 01:12.5
Jalen Johnson → Lakers
Johnson (ATL) straddles the lane line and is in the paint for longer than three seconds without imminently actively guarding an opponent.