Win probability changed during the game. · 6 December 2024
It was more exciting than 99% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 44 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when ATL leads and falls when LAL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · LAL
James · Davis · Hachimura · Vincent · Reddish
Closing lineup · ATL
Young · Johnson · Capela · Hunter · Bogdanovic
LeBron James
43′ · +3
Anthony Davis
42′ · +6
Rui Hachimura
41′ · +5
Gabe Vincent
34′ · +4
Dalton Knecht
28′ · -2
Max Christie
31′ · -7
D'Angelo Russell
21′ · -4
Cam Reddish
21′ · -8
Armel Traore
4′ · -7
Trae Young
42′ · -6
Dyson Daniels
36′ · -9
Jalen Johnson
35′ · +6
Clint Capela
24′ · 0
Zaccharie Risacher
22′ · -2
De'Andre Hunter
34′ · -5
Onyeka Okongwu
29′ · +2
Bogdan Bogdanovic
29′ · +18
Vit Krejci
14′ · +6
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. LAL and ATL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Los Angeles Lakers
Hachimura, Vincent, Knecht, Davis, and James played 13.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Hachimura, Vincent, Christie, Davis, and James played 5.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Russell, Hachimura, Christie, Knecht, and Davis played 5.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Atlanta Hawks
Young, Hunter, Okongwu, Johnson, and Daniels played 8.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Okongwu, Krejci, Johnson, Risacher, and Bogdanovic played 7.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 11 points.
Young, Hunter, Daniels, Capela, and Bogdanovic played 6.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Los Angeles Lakers
Russell, Hachimura, Reddish, Christie, and James played 5.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Hachimura, Vincent, Reddish, Davis, and James played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Vincent, Reddish, Christie, Traore, and James played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Russell, Reddish, Christie, Knecht, and Davis played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Russell, Reddish, Christie, Davis, and James played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Hachimura, Vincent, Reddish, Knecht, and James played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Vincent, Christie, Knecht, Davis, and James played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Russell, Hachimura, Vincent, Davis, and James played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Hachimura, Vincent, Christie, Knecht, and Davis played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Russell, Hachimura, Christie, Davis, and James played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Atlanta Hawks
Young, Johnson, Daniels, Risacher, and Capela played 5.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Young, Hunter, Johnson, Capela, and Bogdanovic played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Young, Hunter, Johnson, Daniels, and Capela played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Hunter, Okongwu, Krejci, Johnson, and Bogdanovic played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Young, Hunter, Okongwu, Daniels, and Risacher played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Young, Hunter, Daniels, Risacher, and Capela played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 13 points.
Young, Okongwu, Daniels, Risacher, and Bogdanovic played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Young, Okongwu, Krejci, Daniels, and Bogdanovic played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Young, Hunter, Okongwu, Daniels, and Bogdanovic played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Young, Okongwu, Krejci, Risacher, and Bogdanovic played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

