Win probability changed during the game. · 12 January 2025
It was more exciting than 99% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 49 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when UTA leads and falls when BKN does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · BKN
Claxton · Clowney · Williams · Martin · Evbuomwan
Closing lineup · UTA
Sexton · Williams · Collier · Eubanks · Sensabaugh
Nic Claxton
37′ · +4
Ben Simmons
32′ · +10
Noah Clowney
32′ · +1
Ziaire Williams
32′ · +1
Keon Johnson
21′ · -2
Day'Ron Sharpe
16′ · -5
Tyrese Martin
35′ · +3
Jalen Wilson
24′ · -7
Tosan Evbuomwan
24′ · -2
Reece Beekman
12′ · -8
Collin Sexton
38′ · -10
Cody Williams
37′ · -16
Isaiah Collier
37′ · +1
Drew Eubanks
31′ · +1
Micah Potter
20′ · -11
Kyle Filipowski
21′ · +3
Svi Mykhailiuk
17′ · +14
Brice Sensabaugh
27′ · +4
Oscar Tshiebwe
18′ · +4
Elijah Harkless
19′ · +15
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. BKN and UTA.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Brooklyn Nets
Claxton, Wilson, Martin, Beekman, and Evbuomwan played 9.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Simmons, Claxton, Williams, Johnson, and Clowney played 8.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Simmons, Claxton, Williams, Martin, and Clowney played 7.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Utah Jazz
Sexton, Eubanks, Potter, Williams, and Collier played 9.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Sexton, Eubanks, Sensabaugh, Williams, and Collier played 8.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Mykhailiuk, Tshiebwe, Sensabaugh, Collier, and Filipowski played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Brooklyn Nets
Claxton, Williams, Martin, Clowney, and Evbuomwan played 5.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Simmons, Sharpe, Wilson, Martin, and Evbuomwan played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Simmons, Williams, Sharpe, Johnson, and Clowney played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Claxton, Williams, Johnson, Martin, and Clowney played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Simmons, Sharpe, Johnson, Wilson, and Evbuomwan played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Sharpe, Wilson, Martin, Beekman, and Evbuomwan played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Simmons, Sharpe, Johnson, Wilson, and Martin played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Claxton, Williams, Wilson, Martin, and Clowney played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Simmons, Claxton, Williams, Wilson, and Clowney played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Utah Jazz
Mykhailiuk, Sexton, Eubanks, Harkless, and Filipowski played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Mykhailiuk, Tshiebwe, Sensabaugh, Harkless, and Collier played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
Potter, Tshiebwe, Harkless, Williams, and Collier played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Sexton, Eubanks, Sensabaugh, Williams, and Filipowski played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Sexton, Eubanks, Williams, Collier, and Filipowski played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Sexton, Potter, Harkless, Williams, and Filipowski played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Mykhailiuk, Sexton, Tshiebwe, Sensabaugh, and Filipowski played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Potter, Tshiebwe, Sensabaugh, Williams, and Collier played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Sexton, Potter, Williams, Collier, and Filipowski played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Sexton, Eubanks, Potter, Harkless, and Williams played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Mykhailiuk, Sexton, Eubanks, Williams, and Filipowski played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Sexton, Tshiebwe, Sensabaugh, Harkless, and Williams played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Tshiebwe, Sensabaugh, Harkless, Williams, and Collier played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

