Win probability changed during the game. · 22 January 2025
It was more exciting than 96% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 24 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when HOU leads and falls when CLE does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · CLE
Mitchell · Garland · Jerome · Niang · Merrill
Closing lineup · HOU
VanVleet · Thompson · Brooks · Eason · Tate
Donovan Mitchell
35′ · +19
Darius Garland
33′ · -7
Jarrett Allen
32′ · +2
Dean Wade
31′ · +10
Max Strus
23′ · 0
Ty Jerome
25′ · 0
Georges Niang
20′ · -12
Sam Merrill
23′ · 0
Tristan Thompson
13′ · -6
Jaylon Tyson
5′ · -13
Fred VanVleet
40′ · +8
Amen Thompson
36′ · -10
Jalen Green
33′ · -17
Dillon Brooks
32′ · 0
Alperen Sengun
29′ · +4
Cam Whitmore
21′ · +13
Tari Eason
20′ · +19
Steven Adams
19′ · -2
Jae'Sean Tate
10′ · -9
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. CLE and HOU.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Mitchell, Allen, Strus, Garland, and Wade played 15.2 minutes together.
Niang, Mitchell, Jerome, Merrill, and Thompson played 7.4 minutes together.
Mitchell, Allen, Jerome, Wade, and Merrill played 3.9 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Cleveland Cavaliers lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
Houston Rockets
VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Sengun, and Thompson played 21.6 minutes together.
Tate, Eason, Thompson, Whitmore, and Adams played 3.6 minutes together.
Green, Tate, Thompson, Whitmore, and Adams played 3.2 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Houston Rockets lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
▸See every lineup of the game
Cleveland Cavaliers
Niang, Garland, Jerome, Merrill, and Thompson played 3.7 minutes together.
Allen, Strus, Garland, Wade, and Tyson played 3.2 minutes together.
Mitchell, Allen, Garland, Wade, and Merrill played 2.9 minutes together.
Niang, Garland, Jerome, Wade, and Merrill played 2.8 minutes together.
Mitchell, Allen, Garland, Jerome, and Wade played 2.4 minutes together.
Niang, Allen, Strus, Garland, and Jerome played 1.9 minutes together.
Niang, Mitchell, Allen, Strus, and Jerome played 1.6 minutes together.
Niang, Allen, Garland, Merrill, and Tyson played 1.1 minutes together.
Houston Rockets
VanVleet, Brooks, Sengun, Eason, and Whitmore played 2.9 minutes together.
VanVleet, Brooks, Eason, Whitmore, and Adams played 2.4 minutes together.
VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Thompson, and Adams played 2.4 minutes together.
VanVleet, Eason, Thompson, Whitmore, and Adams played 2.3 minutes together.
VanVleet, Green, Eason, Whitmore, and Adams played 2.3 minutes together.
VanVleet, Tate, Sengun, Eason, and Whitmore played 1.8 minutes together.
VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Sengun, and Eason played 1.6 minutes together.
Green, Eason, Thompson, Whitmore, and Adams played 1.4 minutes together.
VanVleet, Brooks, Sengun, Eason, and Thompson played 1.1 minutes together.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

