SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 22 January 2025

CLE108–109HOU
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 96% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 24 times

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ HOU winsCLE wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when HOU leads and falls when CLE does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · CLE

Donovan Mitchell
Darius Garland
Ty Jerome
Georges Niang
Sam Merrill

Mitchell · Garland · Jerome · Niang · Merrill

Closing lineup · HOU

Fred VanVleet
Amen Thompson
Dillon Brooks
Tari Eason
Jae'Sean Tate

VanVleet · Thompson · Brooks · Eason · Tate

Q1Q2Q3Q4
CLE
Donovan Mitchell

Donovan Mitchell

35′ · +19

Darius Garland

Darius Garland

33′ · -7

Jarrett Allen

Jarrett Allen

32′ · +2

Dean Wade

Dean Wade

31′ · +10

Max Strus

Max Strus

23′ · 0

Ty Jerome

Ty Jerome

25′ · 0

Georges Niang

Georges Niang

20′ · -12

Sam Merrill

Sam Merrill

23′ · 0

Tristan Thompson

Tristan Thompson

13′ · -6

Jaylon Tyson

Jaylon Tyson

5′ · -13

HOU
Fred VanVleet

Fred VanVleet

40′ · +8

Amen Thompson

Amen Thompson

36′ · -10

Jalen Green

Jalen Green

33′ · -17

Dillon Brooks

Dillon Brooks

32′ · 0

Alperen Sengun

Alperen Sengun

29′ · +4

Cam Whitmore

Cam Whitmore

21′ · +13

Tari Eason

Tari Eason

20′ · +19

Steven Adams

Steven Adams

19′ · -2

Jae'Sean Tate

Jae'Sean Tate

10′ · -9

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. CLE and HOU.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Cleveland Cavaliers

  • Mitchell, Allen, Strus, Garland, and Wade played 15.2 minutes together.

  • Niang, Mitchell, Jerome, Merrill, and Thompson played 7.4 minutes together.

  • Mitchell, Allen, Jerome, Wade, and Merrill played 3.9 minutes together.

The plus-minus of each Cleveland Cavaliers lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.

Houston Rockets

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Sengun, and Thompson played 21.6 minutes together.

  • Tate, Eason, Thompson, Whitmore, and Adams played 3.6 minutes together.

  • Green, Tate, Thompson, Whitmore, and Adams played 3.2 minutes together.

The plus-minus of each Houston Rockets lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.

▸See every lineup of the game

Cleveland Cavaliers

  • Niang, Garland, Jerome, Merrill, and Thompson played 3.7 minutes together.

  • Allen, Strus, Garland, Wade, and Tyson played 3.2 minutes together.

  • Mitchell, Allen, Garland, Wade, and Merrill played 2.9 minutes together.

  • Niang, Garland, Jerome, Wade, and Merrill played 2.8 minutes together.

  • Mitchell, Allen, Garland, Jerome, and Wade played 2.4 minutes together.

  • Niang, Allen, Strus, Garland, and Jerome played 1.9 minutes together.

  • Niang, Mitchell, Allen, Strus, and Jerome played 1.6 minutes together.

  • Niang, Allen, Garland, Merrill, and Tyson played 1.1 minutes together.

Houston Rockets

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Sengun, Eason, and Whitmore played 2.9 minutes together.

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Eason, Whitmore, and Adams played 2.4 minutes together.

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Thompson, and Adams played 2.4 minutes together.

  • VanVleet, Eason, Thompson, Whitmore, and Adams played 2.3 minutes together.

  • VanVleet, Green, Eason, Whitmore, and Adams played 2.3 minutes together.

  • VanVleet, Tate, Sengun, Eason, and Whitmore played 1.8 minutes together.

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Sengun, and Eason played 1.6 minutes together.

  • Green, Eason, Thompson, Whitmore, and Adams played 1.4 minutes together.

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Sengun, Eason, and Thompson played 1.1 minutes together.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
16.719
92.6% of capacity
Toyota Center · Houston
Scoring
217
combined points
10.7 below the season average (227.7)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

13 calls reviewed1 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Loose Ball · 01:07.6
Alperen Sengun → Jarrett Allen
Sengun (HOU) dislodges Allen (CLE) during the shot attempt, and a loose ball foul should have been whistled. Instant replay was then utilized after the made basket to determine if an altercation/hostile act had occurred, and referees determined that Sengun did not commit a hostile act.